My hope is we hit rock bottom yesterday. we have dropped about six units over the last few days, which is unacceptable.

I’m going to continue to grind it out. Just as we lose a lot, we can win a lot soon. It starts today with these two picks.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 40-48 (-9.39 U)

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Luis Castillo vs. Simeon Woods-Richardson

This pitching matchup looks good when we look at the ERAs, but I wouldn’t say I like either of their matchups. When we factor in two hot offenses, I think we are looking at a sneaky over, albeit early.

These bullpens are fantastic, so we won’t be playing the full game over, though I still like it. I think we see five runs through five, but I’m not sure if we see more than three after that. That’s why I went with the first five innings.

Luis Castillo has been on a great run, but the Twins will be the hottest offense he’s faced. The Twins won 12 straight games because of their offense.

In the last two weeks against right-handed pitching, they have the second-best wRC+ (140), third-best OPS (.833), second-best ISO (.199), and second-best wOBA (.367). They are also among the top five in Hard-Hit rate in that span. They are not striking out, and they are walking at a well above-average rate. Carlos Correa also returned to the lineup, giving them an extra kick.

Castillo is excellent against righties, but lefties can get to him. Lefties are hitting .333/.358/.603 for a .961 OPS, compared to a .469 OPS against righties. The Twins will deploy a left-heavy lineup: Julien, Kirloff, Larnach, Kepler, Castro, and Santana. The righties are Jeffers (hottest hitter), Carlos Correa (excellent), and Jose Miranda. We have solid lefties, and the righties are seeing the ball well. I see at least two runs for Castillo, who threw five innings.

Simeon Woods-Richardson lines up for the Twins. His 2.46 ERA is excellent through three starts, but there is context to it. His 4.83 xERA is two total runs higher because he’s getting fortunate.

He relies primarily on three pitches. Opponents are hitting .333 against his four-seamer and .556 against his changeup. His slider is tough to hit, but it isn’t producing whiffs. These statistics have been used against the White Sox and the Tigers twice.

The Mariners’ offense could have been better than the Twins’, but it is heating up. Seattle has a 97 wRC+ against righties in the last two weeks and 102 wRC+ over the previous week. Overall, it is a league-average offense against righties, much better than the bottom ten units in Chicago and Detroit.

He’s allowed four runs in his 8.2 innings against the White Sox. I can’t see the Mariners not replicating that, and it’s realistic to project three runs through five innings with a juiced earned run line at 2.5 with a 15.5 outs line. We only need one run off Castillo to push if he allows three.

Both pitchers don’t have good matchups, and both offenses have looked solid. I didn’t get the best number at -125, but at the time of writing, it’s -120 on BetMGM.

The Pick: First 5 Innings Over 4 (-125) Risk 1 Unit

Texas Rangers vs. Oakland A’s @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Andrew Heaney vs. Alex Wood

I will continue to fade Alex Wood in the right spot. We have one here, with the Rangers facing Alex Wood for the second time.

The first time the Rangers saw Alex Wood, they scored two runs in the first two innings. He allowed plenty of base runners, and while the Rangers hit him hard, they were caught for outs. This time around, I don’t think Wood will be as lucky.

I’m also playing into a slight revenge narrative. The A’s won the first series between these teams, including a come-from-behind-win in this exact game. The Rangers get a lead and don’t give it back this time.

Alex Wood is similar to Patrick Corbin. They both have a 6.10 xERA and an ERA above 6.30. Wood allows harder contact than Corbin, and Wood has a higher WHIP. He’s allowing so many base runners and allowing such hard contact that he can’t survive for long.

Alex Wood has exceeded 2.5 earned runs in six of his last seven games at home (4.4 earned runs/game average). While Oakland is a big hitters park, Wood does not like pitching there.

We are getting value on this because the Rangers have Andrew Heaney on the mound. Heaney looked fantastic in his last start, putting up seven innings of one-run ball against a scrappy Nationals team. He’s had a gauntlet of a schedule, facing the Rays and Astros twice, the Braves, then Seattle, before facing Washington.

He’s allowing far fewer base runners than Wood is, which we are looking for in a first-five wager. He’s not walking batters, and he’s not allowing hard contact. His xERA is 4.14, an entire run lower than his actual ERA. After facing the Marlins’ lousy pitching, I think they struggle against Heaney.

Heaney faced the A’s twice last year. The Rangers won by a combined score of 29-5 in two starts: 18-3 and 11-4. Heaney allowed only three runs over those two starts. I know this Rangers offense could have been more prolific, but this is a perfect matchup to start things again. The Rangers have yet to win an Andrew Heaney start; I don’t see that continuing, considering it hasn’t been Heaney’s fault.

We have the better pitcher and the better offense. The Rangers’ numbers could have been better this season, but all it takes is one game to get hot. That’s my gut feeling; we get Rangers bats to show up early and often.

The Pick: Rangers First 5 Innings ML (-135) Risk 1 U

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