The AL Playoff Race Is Taking Shape
With the six AL teams that are currently in playoff positions looking more and more established, here's how the postseason picture could unfold.
As August comes to a close, we enter into the final month of the MLB regular season and move one step closer to the postseason.
And in a season full of tightly contested postseason races, things are finally starting to take shape, especially in the American League.
The AL postseason field seems to be set, barring miraculous and improbable Wild Card runs from the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners.
Now that the six teams bound for October baseball seem to be set, the attention in the final stage of the season turns to division races, Wild Card races and overall seeding.
Three teams vie for the American League Central, while two AL powerhouses are in a tightly contested battle for the AL East. There is also the hunt for the top Wild Card spot and the chance to host an AL Wild Card Series.
So, let’s look at how the AL postseason picture could play out.
All statistics and standings used in this article were taken prior to games on Aug. 31
Who Makes Up the Six-Team AL Postseason Field?
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have rebounded after a disappointing 2023 campaign where they finished with an 82-80 record.
The Bronx Bombers have propelled themselves to the top of the AL East after a brilliant opening two months to the season in which they sported an AL-best 40-19 record entering June. And despite a somewhat poor stretch in the middle of the season, they managed to still remain just a half-game back of the Baltimore Orioles entering August.
This month, they’ve made up the difference with the O’s and reclaimed their spot atop the East.
The Yankees currently sport one of baseball’s best offenses, led by two MVP-caliber names in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
As a lineup, they currently lead the league in fWAR at 29.0, wRC+ at 119, OPS at .774, and home runs at 209. They also sit second overall in RBI but still lead the AL, driving in 660 as a team, per FanGraphs.
And the Yankees added depth beyond their two mega-stars at the deadline, bringing in Jazz Chisholm Jr., who’s hit nine homers since joining at the trade deadline. They have also had some lesser-known names step up in a big way of late; Austin Wells leads all catchers in fWAR since the All-Star break.
Even more reinforcements could be on the way, such as veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who is currently on a rehab assignment.
So, here’s how a Yankees postseason lineup could shape up:
| 2B Gleyber Torres |
| RF Juan Soto |
| CF Aaron Judge |
| DH Giancarlo Stanton |
| 3B Jazz Chisholm Jr. |
| C Austin Wells |
| 1B Anthony Rizzo |
| SS Anthony Volpe |
| LF Alex Verdugo |
And in terms of pitching, the Yankees rotation has been one of the more solid starting staffs in MLB, led by front-end talent such as Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. They rank sixth in staff ERA (3.85), fifth in K/9 (8.92) and third in opponents’ AVG (.235).
Between Cole and Rodón, plus veterans Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes Jr. and impressive rookie Luis Gil, New York has plenty of suitable options to make up a postseason rotation.
Alongside their top-tier lineup and upper-echelon rotation, the Yankees’ bullpen takes a bit of a back seat. But that doesn’t mean their ‘pen isn’t noteworthy.
They rank within the top 10 in reliever ERA (6th) and AVG (10th), featuring All-Star closer Clay Holmes, experienced veteran Tommy Kahnle, and relievers in the midst of big seasons like Luke Weaver and Mark Leiter Jr.
Baltimore Orioles
The youthful Baltimore Orioles continue to push closer to their ultimate goal of capturing the franchise’s first American League pennant and World Series since 1983.
They’ve been in the hunt to defend their AL East title all season, as they’ve constantly been interchanging positions with the Yankees for the top spot.
Their lineup is one of the league’s best offenses in 2024, led by young All-Stars Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman and veteran sluggers like Anthony Santander.
Baltimore’s band of young, talented bats sits within the top five in MLB in fWAR (4th), wRC+ (2nd), OPS (5th), HR (2nd), and RBI (4th).
An Orioles postseason lineup could look like this, when and if Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg return from the IL:
| LF Colton Cowser |
| C Adley Rutschman |
| SS Gunnar Henderson |
| RF Anthony Santander |
| 3B Jordan Westburg* |
| 1B Ryan Mountcastle* |
| DH Eloy Jimenez |
| CF Cedric Mullins |
| 2B Jackson Holliday |
*Westburg and Mountcastle are currently on the IL but could return in September.
From a pitching standpoint, the Orioles have been riddled with injuries. Some of their biggest names, Kyle Bradish and John Means, find themselves on the shelf for the season.
And with pitchers like Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin hitting the IL in the short-term, and Trevor Rogers optioned to the minors, the Orioles are really at the mercy of ace Corbin Burnes at the moment.
But if Rodriguez and Eflin are able to return, a postseason rotation of Burnes, Rodriguez, Eflin, and Dean Kremer will give the Orioles a lot more postseason intrigue on paper than they’ve had in years past.
Overall, their rotation has stacked up well amongst other rotations in MLB given the circumstances, with a seventh-ranked rotation in terms of fWAR.
And while their bullpen may be mid-tier statistically — 15th in fWAR and 17th in ERA — they are not short on big names with postseason experience under their belt.
Seranthony Domínguez has overtaken Craig Kimbrel for the closing role since he was acquired at the deadline. Yennier Cano has been orchestrating a second consecutive sub-3.00 ERA season in a set-up role. Cionel Pérez has also slotted into a late-inning role nicely in 2024, with a 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a .207 average against.
And after a rocky start that saw him surrender nine hits and eight earned runs in his first three appearances out of the Orioles ‘pen since joining at the deadline, Gregory Soto has calmed down, allowing just one hit in his last seven outings. Not to mention, he too adds prior closing experience to the mix.
Cleveland Guardians
Entering the season, expectations were low for all AL Central teams when it came to postseason aspirations, including the Cleveland Guardians, who finished third in the division with a 76-86 record in 2023.
But with just a month of games left to be played, the Guardians have already bested their win total from last season.
And they’ve done it in impressive fashion, as after each full month of the regular season to this point they’ve found themselves at the top of the division.
But things haven’t gone to plan of late in Cleveland, as their division supremacy in the Central could be in jeopardy. They sit just 2.5 games up on the surging Kansas City Royals, who had fully caught up to them on Aug. 27, with just days left before September. For context, they were six games up on Kansas City entering the month of August.
Cleveland currently has a mid-tier offense in MLB, ranking 14th in team fWAR, 16th in wRC+, 16th in OPS, and 21st in AVG.
This has certainly not been aided by their poor performances in the month of August, as they sit 16th in fWAR, 23rd in wRC+, 24th in OPS, and 25th in AVG as a team.
But despite their offensive shortcomings, their lineup certainly can’t be taken lightly come postseason time, with José Ramírez leading the charge with his second career 30/30 campaign and his third 100+ RBI season in the last four years. He’s accompanied by some big power threats like Josh Naylor and a batting average savant in Steven Kwan.
A Guardians postseason lineup could look something like this:
| LF Steven Kwan |
| RF Lane Thomas |
| 3B José Ramírez |
| 1B Josh Naylor |
| DH David Fry |
| 2B Andrés Giménez |
| CF Tyler Freeman |
| SS Brayan Rocchio |
| C Bo Naylor |
The most consistent flaw in the makeup of this team has been its starting rotation, which ranks among the worst in MLB across the board. They fall second last in the league in starter fWAR. They are also 25th in ERA, 26th in WHIP and 24th in AVG against.
And outside of Tanner Bibee atop the rotation, they lack comfort and consistency for a postseason rotation. While Ben Lively has looked sharp this season, he doesn’t sport a successful MLB track record outside of 2024 that would instill confidence in him to shove in October.
Gavin Williams, while certainly promising as a young arm in the organization, has a near 5.00 ERA (4.99) that doesn’t scream of a winning-caliber postseason starter. And Carlos Carrasco and his 5.64 ERA and Alex Cobb fresh off the 60-day IL aren’t exactly the comforting veteran presences that other organizations have.
But in all actuality, the Guardians won’t need a whole lot out of their rotation with a league-leading bullpen at their disposal.
As a collective unit, the Guardians bullpen ranks first in MLB in fWAR, ERA, WHIP and AVG.
Innings seven through nine are covered with the “three-headed monster” they possess in Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and, of course, the best closer in baseball, Emmanuel Clase.
They also feature a supporting cast to their terrific trio, including former big league closer Scott Barlow, lefty Tim Herrin (who’s been excellent this season), and right-handers Nick Sandlin and Eli Morgan, who both pair solid 2024 seasons with previous postseason experience with the Guardians.
Kansas City Royals
When the Kansas City Royals extended Bobby Witt Jr. this offseason and then made intriguing veteran signings like Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Hunter Renfroe, it drummed a bit of excitement that this team was finally on the path to building towards success.
But few would’ve thought that this Royals team would not only be in the postseason hunt at the end of August 2024, but just 2.5 games out from the top spot in the AL Central with a potential bye to ALDS in the cards.
Yet, this is exactly where we find the Royals, who have been surging since the start of August, at one point completely erasing the six-game deficit the Guardians held over them entering the month.
Kansas City, led by AL MVP hopeful Bobby Witt Jr., has been one of the stronger offenses in MLB this season. The Royals rank within the top 10 in team AVG (sixth), OPS (10th) and sit just outside the top 10 in fWAR (11th) and wRC+ (13th).
But the Royals may now have to embark on the postseason without one of their hottest hitters, first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino who suffered a broken thumb in a game against the Astros on Aug. 29 and was given a six-to-eight-week timetable for a return. Since the All-Star break, he was slashing .296/.325/.497 with eight homers. His 35 RBI only trail Judge in that same time span.
Given Pasquantino’s injury here’s how their October batting order could look:
| 2B Maikel Garcia |
| SS Bobby Witt Jr. |
| 1B Salvador Perez |
| LF MJ Melendez |
| C Freddy Fermin |
| 3B Paul DeJong |
| DH Michael Massey |
| RF Dairon Blanco |
| CF Kyle Isbel |
Their starting rotation has also been excellent in 2024. It’s been led by Lugo and his Cy Young-caliber season; he is sporting a 3.12 ERA and a career-high 3.8 fWAR.
And Wacha, all-star Cole Ragans and former first-round pick Brady Singer have made the two through four spots as formidable of a force as you’ll find in a major league rotation in 2024.
The Royals rotation ranks tied for first in the league in fWAR, third in ERA, fifth in WHIP and tied for sixth in AVG against.
And while their biggest flaw heading into the summer months was their bullpen, they did a great job accounting for crucial late-inning roles at the trade deadline last month.
In 13.1 innings as Royal since being dealt from Oakland, Lucas Erceg has posted 5 saves with a 0.68 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. For the sake of keeping the momentum going, the Royals will hope Erceg can avoid the IL with a right hand injury.
And the addition of Hunter Harvey, who will hopefully return at some point in September, and the activation of John Schreiber from the IL has added much-needed support to the back end of the bullpen come postseason time.
That has taken the pressure off of James McArthur, who struggled as the everyday closer before the team added Erceg.
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins topped the table in the AL Central last season and now look poised to head back to the postseason in 2024. And given the slide the Guardians have taken, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could make up the 3.5-game deficit they currently sit in.
But whether as the AL Central winner or a Wild Card team, the Twins look set to appear in this year’s postseason. And this is in large part due to how well-rounded Minnesota has been in every aspect of the game.
Looking at the Twins offense, the Twins sit within the top 10 in MLB in numerous statistics. They rank sixth in baseball in both team fWAR and fifth in wRC+. They also rank eighth in AVG, sixth in OPS, and ninth in home runs.
The biggest issue for their offense has been health, as key names such as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis have all found themselves on the shelf at some point, or multiple times, throughout the season.
Here’s what a potential Twins postseason lineup could look like if health goes their way:
| 2B Willi Castro |
| CF Byron Buxton |
| SS Carlos Correa |
| 1B Carlos Santana |
| 3B Royce Lewis |
| LF Trevor Larnach |
| DH Matt Wallner |
| RF Max Kepler |
| C Ryan Jeffers |
Minnesota’s rotation has been dominated by headlines such as Pablo López‘s poor start to 2024 and Joe Ryan‘s season-ending injury, but statistically, the Twins rotation has been one of MLB’s better staffs this season.
As a unit, Twins starters rank eighth in both fWAR, seventh in FIP, fourth in AVG against and second in WHIP.
And with an improved López along with Bailey Ober making up a one-two punch to start a postseason series, with likely some combination of Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews and David Festa filling out the remaining spots in an October rotation, the Twins have a sneakily strong staff.
Even if some of the unproven talent (from a postseason perspective) falls a bit short, they will certainly be aided by a strong bullpen, led by fireball closer Jhoan Durán, with Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcalá and Cole Sands accounting for the set-up innings.
The Twins bullpen ranks seventh in MLB in fWAR, fifth in FIP and ninth in both AVG against and WHIP.
Houston Astros
Would a postseason conversation really be a postseason conversation if the Houston Astros weren’t in the mix?
Despite a 26-33 start to the season, the Astros have surged all the way back, taking a four-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West.
Houston continues to boast a high-powered offense led by stars with no shortage of postseason experience, like Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman.
Houston’s offense ranks 10th in fWAR, tied for seventh in wRC+, and tied for second in AVG. And that’s without Kyle Tucker, who hasn’t played since June 3.
So, here’s how Houston’s 2024 postseason lineup could look if Tucker makes his expected return in the coming weeks:
| 2B Jose Altuve |
| 3B Alex Bregman |
| DH Yordan Alvarez |
| RF Kyle Tucker |
| C Yainer Diaz |
| 1B Jon Singleton |
| SS Jeremy Peña |
| CF Jake Meyers |
| LF Mauricio Dubón |
In terms of their rotation, while they haven’t been up to the usual dominant fashion we’ve come to expect from the Astros for the entire season they were certainly untouchable in the month of August, as they lead the league in starter fWAR this month.
And the ‘Stros would have been especially excited to see the return of long-time great Justin Verlander ahead of the postseason.
But despite not looking great early on the Astros have truly rebounded to have one of baseball’s better starting staffs. They sit 10th in fWAR, 7th in ERA and 2nd in AVG against.
And boy do they look good on paper after the return of Verlander and the deadline addition of Yusei Kikuchi joining ace Framber Valdez, rookie sensation Ronel Blanco and his low 3.00’s ERA, and Hunter Brown, who’s in the midst solid 2024 campaign and a terrific second half.
The Astros starters are getting themselves right at the best possible moment.
The Astros bullpen, despite a well-documented poor start from Josh Hader, has found ways to look better than its 17th-ranked fWAR might make one think. Their relief corps sits fourth in ERA and sixth in average against and 11th in WHIP.
And with names like Hader, who’s righted the ship and dropped his season ERA to 3.24; Bryan Abreu, who’s sporting a 93rd-percentile K-rate; and Héctor Neris, who brings past postseason experience in Houston, they have the firepower to support their starters in postseason crunch time.
The AL Division Races
While the teams might be settled, there are a couple of tightly contested division races that are still unfolding at the moment.
AL East
| Team | Wins | Loses |
| New York Yankees | 79 | 56 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 78 | 58 |
The American League East has featured two of baseball’s best teams in 2024: the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles. And as we enter September, both seemed poised to go down to the wire to take home AL East honors and potentially the top overall seed in the AL.
As we’ve outlined already, both have high-powered offenses. The Yankees seemingly have the edge over the Orioles from a rotation standpoint, but the Orioles have a stronger bullpen.
In order to separate these two down the stretch, it may just come down to strength of schedule.
Baltimore certainly has the advantage here with the second-easiest remaining slate (per Tankathon). The .474 average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is a far more manageable task than the .504 average winning percentage and 11th hardest remaining schedule that the Yankees face.
The remaining series between the two may also be an important factor. From Sept. 24 to Sept. 26, the Orioles and Yankees will square off for the last time in the regular season with New York playing host.
While this may seem like an obvious advantage for the Yankees, the O’s actually have a better road winning percentage (.582) than the Yankees do a home winning percentage (.560).
AL Central
| Team | Wins | Loses |
| Cleveland Guardians | 77 | 58 |
| Kansas City Royals | 75 | 61 |
| Minnesota Twins | 73 | 61 |
The AL Central looked like one of baseball’s weaker divisions at the start of the season. But now the division is likely to see three teams play for October glory.
And the race for the Central has never been tighter after the Cleveland Guardians were seemingly running away with it earlier in the year.
The Guardians still sit 2.5 games up on the Royals, and 3.5 games up on the Twins.
While it’s not impossible for Minnesota to catch up to Cleveland and Kansas City, jumping two teams at this point in the season is a tall task for any team, especially considering how well Kansas City has performed in the second half.
So, looking at the race between the top two, strength of schedule comes into play again. The Royals have one of the league’s tougher schedules ahead of them, the sixth most difficult with an average opponents’ winning percentage of .522. The Guardians’ average opponents’ winning percentage of .491 places them in the 20th in strength of schedule.
Yet, the Royals were seven games back of the of the Guardians at the All-Star break and have made up the ground to get right back in it with a 23-16 record in that span.
Statistically speaking, the Royals feature a more well-rounded roster than the Guardians, especially of late. And with Kansas City’s current second-half hot streak, Cleveland’s 19-21 record post-All-Star break along with their skeptical-looking starting rotation, the Royals seemed poised to make a run to overtake Cleveland for that top AL Central position, even with the harder upcoming slate of games and the loss of Pasquantino.
The Royals recently finished a four-game set against Cleveland in which they took three of four on the road earlier in the week (Aug 26-28).
So, their final three-game set at home in Kauffmann Stadium from Sept. 2 to Sept. 4 might just be the difference maker when all is said and done on Sept. 29.
The AL Playoff Bracket
Given the strength of the AL East and AL Central this season, and the rough patch the Astros had to climb out of just to get back on top of the AL West, this leads me to believe that the top two seeds receiving byes to the ALDS will be from the East and Central.
And given how strong the AL East has been all season, I expect them to continue to be the cream of the crop in the American League and claim the top spot, meaning the winner of the AL Central will take the second seed.
With their relatively easy upcoming schedule paired with their well-rounded roster, I expect the Baltimore Orioles to overtake the Yankees and come out on top in the AL East.
And in the Central, Kansas City is one of the hottest teams of the second half and has remarkably made up much of a seven-game deficit to the Guardians at the All-Star break, climbing all the way back to within 2.5 games of Cleveland.
Like the O’s, the Royals also feature a much more well-rounded roster than that of their division rivals in Cleveland which leads me to predict that they will come out on top in the Central and claim the second AL bye.
This leaves the Houston Astros at three, the New York Yankees at four as the top Wild Card seed, the Cleveland Guardians at five, and the Minnesota Twins at six to round out the AL postseason field.
4 New York Yankees/5 Cleveland Guardians To Play 1 Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore would certainly have its hands full hosting either of these teams in the ALDS with either of their potent offenses, the Yankees’ dynamic rotation, or the Guardians’ untouchable bullpen.
Given the Guardians’ current second-half slump and their 35-34 road record, compared to the Yankees’ 37-29 home record and the fact that New York holds the two best bats in this matchup (Judge and Soto), the upper-seeded Yankees are the presumptive front runner.
But Ramírez and the Guardians’ offense are not to be taken lightly, and their bullpen will certainly cause any team headaches, making the 2022 ALDS rematch one for the ages.
3 Houston Astros/6 Minnesota Twins To Play 2 Kansas City Royals
Kansas City has lots of postseason experience, both long-term and recent, to worry about in either of these matchups. It’s certainly a benefit that they would play the ALDS at home where they’ve thrived with a 41-28 record.
In terms of Houston and Minnesota, the Twins seemingly have the edge when it comes to bullpen performance in 2024, but the Astros’ rotation and lineup on paper look better, making an upset in this Wild Card round a tall task. That being said, guys like Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis have played postseason heroes in the past, and anything is possible in October, so don’t count anyone out.
The Astros can take solace in the fact that they would be able to play this best-of-three set at Minute Maid Park, where they hold a 37-29 record; Minnesota is just 35-32 on the road.
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