Five Starters Whose Strong Seasons Are Being Wasted
These pitchers have had outstanding seasons on underperforming teams. Let's give them the recognition they deserve.
Whenever a team makes a championship run, the phrase “it all came together” is an almost universal cliche. Oftentimes, executives, fans, and media members point out that championships are the result of multiple players having career years at the same time.
Sometimes, though, excellent seasons happen in isolation, without the spotlight of great team success. Today, it is time to examine some of the great starting pitching seasons in 2024 from players on bad teams.
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
The first pitcher who fits this category of an outstanding individual performer on a struggling team is Logan Webb. A first-time All-Star, Webb has once again been an innings-eater for San Francisco, topping 190 innings for the third consecutive season. He is on pace to break the 200-inning mark in back-to-back years.
Webb’s 3.53 ERA is excellent, and his 3.01 FIP indicates that he has been even better than the ERA suggests. This is particularly impressive considering he leads the National League in innings pitched and batters faced.
Webb has a pitching run value in the 89th percentile and a fastball run value in the top 7% of baseball. He has also been masterful at keeping the ball on the ground, posting a 57.1% groundball percentage, which ranks in the 95th percentile.
All in all, it has been an excellent season for Webb, who is establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball.
José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays
José Berríos has been an unsung hero for the team that might be the most disappointing in all of baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays.
Berríos got off to a slow start after joining the Jays and had the worst year of his career in 2022. As the Blue Jays, who many thought would be in World Series contention the past several seasons, have dramatically underperformed, Berríos’s bounceback has gone unnoticed.
The right-hander’s improvement has lined up with his diminished fastball usage. Down almost 9% from his struggle-filled 2022 season, the four-seam fastball is now his third pitch, behind his more effective sinker and slurve.
This balanced attack – Berríos does not throw any one pitch more than 35% of the time, and he has four pitches he throws at least 15% of the time – has allowed him to have a pitching run value in the 83rd percentile. This is reflected in his 3.44 ERA, which is on pace to be a career-best.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
Tyler Anderson was a piece that many thought would be moved at the trade deadline given his hot start and the struggles of the Los Angeles Angels. Instead, Anderson stayed in Anaheim, where he is enjoying a strong season.
A beneficiary of Dodgers magic in 2022, Anderson had his best season that year. The 2024 campaign has been a close second for the veteran lefty.
Anderson has posted a 3.60 ERA this year, relying on his absolutely elite changeup. With an offspeed run value of 19, Anderson ranks first in baseball according to Baseball Savant’s metrics. He has excelled at limiting hard contact, posting a hard-hit percentage that is in the 94th percentile.
As one would expect, hitters’ average exit velocity off of Anderson is just 87 MPH, which places him in the 89th percentile. Opponents are hitting just .216 off the changeup, a pitch that makes his below-average fastball appear much harder.
Anderson has not looked nearly as sharp since the trade deadline (5.62 ERA in eight starts), but his full-season numbers remain impressive.
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga took a back seat this past winter to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was universally viewed as the premier free agent to come to the United States from Japan.
Imanaga, however, has been excellent, and his contract is looking like one of the best values that any team got this offseason. An All-Star, Imanaga has dazzled to the tune of a 3.03 ERA.
Imanaga’s ERA+ is 33 points better than league average, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.07 leads the National League.
Given his elite K/BB, it makes sense that his walk percentage of just 4.2% would land Imanaga in the top 4% of baseball. Remarkably, though, Imanaga also boasts a chase percentage in the top 3% of baseball, indicating that his low walk total is not the result of spending too much time in the zone, but rather elite pitches.
His splitter, lovingly referred to as a “ghost fork,” has limited hitters to just a .216 average and is a major factor in that high chase rate.
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
Like Imanaga, Jameson Taillon has been the victim of a poor Chicago Cubs offense, and the best season of his career has gone largely unnoticed. Posting a 3.54 ERA across 152.1 innings, Taillon has combined quality and quantity for the first time in his career.
While Taillon does not get a lot of swing and miss, he is extremely effective at limiting walks, sitting in the 95th percentile in walk percentage. He has five pitches he throws between 10% and 30% of the time, keeping hitters off balance and guessing.
His sweeper and sinker, in particular, have been especially dominant, limiting hitters to just a .188 and .207 average, respectively.
Taillon’s fastball run value is in the top 7% of baseball, and his overall pitching run value sits in the 86th percentile, a better-than-good season for Taillon.
When examining the successes of these five pitchers’ seasons, one can only hope that they are able to maintain these results across multiple seasons in the future. It is an unfortunate fact of baseball that pitchers are injury-prone, and it is incredibly hard for them to deliver at a high level each and every year.
Moving forward, it is more important than ever for teams to take advantage of these career years when they happen to get the most out of their best pitchers.
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