2024 World Series Betting Preview; New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, Picks and Predictions

We made it. The World Series begins on Friday, October 25 in Los Angeles, where the first two games will be played, then three in New York, then the final two games (if necessary) back in Los Angeles.

The 2024 World Series is set between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees. Both teams had incredible seasons but had different paths to get here. Before we make a case for each team to win it, let’s talk about what it took for both teams to get here.

We’ll also examine each team’s performance in the second half, their performance in the playoffs, x-factors, and much more to prepare you for the World Series.

My playoff picks have been red-hot. We are up 10.60 units, which means a $100 unit bettor is up $1,060, taking my plays so far.

It’s important to note; I’m a Yankee fan. That said, I have not taken a pro-Yankees pick yet this postseason. We’ve faded Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, and we’ve taken multiple Guardian pitchers over strikeout props. When it comes to my money and recommending picks to you, I’m always unbiased. Always.

You’re about to read a detailed breakdown of everything you’ll need to know about the World Series, and if you disagree with my pick, go the other way. May the best person win.

$1.18 Billion Dollar Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers were supposed to be here. They opened the season as the World Series favorites at +320, one of two teams at +500 or worse. They had the highest pre-season win total at 103.5, one of the largest win totals in MLB history. The Dodgers committed $1.18 Billion this offseason. They spent more than the entire Miami Marlins net worth.

Shohei Ohtani took up most of it, as does the $50M posting fee for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, plus another $325M for the contract. They also traded for Tyler Glasnow, extended his contract, and brought in veterans like Joe Kelly, Manuel Margot, and Jason Heyward.

While they were the prohibitive favorites all season, they could have started better by their standards. As we entered the All-Star Break, they had a 56-41 record with a +88 run differential. They had the fifth-best winning percentage and third-best run differential. They were one of baseball’s best teams; they still needed to show it fully.

That they did in the second half, the Dodgers added Jack Flaherty, Tommy Edman, Michael Kopech, and Kevin Kiermaier. They went 42-23 in the second half, rocking the second-best wRC+ as an offense in baseball, just behind the Diamondbacks.

They were a well-oiled machine on offense, but the pitching limped to the end, putting up a 4.27 FIP, ranking 20th in MLB. After their second-half performance, they established themselves as the favorite to win the World Series.

They were tested early with a series against their division rival, the San Diego Padres. A team I called the “most talented team in the playoffs.” While the Dodgers did win, I still believe that, and that only helps the Dodgers case more. They were down 2-1 in that series before battling back, winning in five games. It was an incredible performance; they needed every player on that roster to do it.

After an emotional series like that, it’s understandable if a team can’t show up in the next series. That wasn’t the case for the Dodgers, as they won Game 1 of the NLCS 9-0 behind a fantastic performance from Jack Flaherty.

None of these games were close; the Dodgers crushed the Mets or were on the wrong side of a blowout. They won in six games by scoring the most runs in a Championship series… ever.

While this team lacks starting pitching, they make up for it with a historically great offense and an elite bullpen. They are a terrifying opponent.

Los Angeles Dodgers By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense

Playoff Statistics

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

Starting Rotation (Playoffs)

Regular Season Statistics (Bullpen, Defense, Speed)

Bullpen

• FIP: 4.05 (21st)
• xFIP: 4.21 (23rd)
• SIERA: 3.79 (18th)
• K-BB%: 14.6% (14th)
• ERA: 3.53 (4th)

Defense:

• Def fWAR: -3.8 (18th)
• OAA: -4 (19th)
• UZR/150: 0.7 (11th)
• DRS: 66 (3rd)

Baserunning

• BsR: 10.7 (4th)
• Stolen Bases: 136 (10th)

Evil Empire New York Yankees

The New York Yankees were also supposed to be here. They opened with the second-best odds to the Astros in the American League to win the World Series at +900. They had a 93.5-win total, the highest in the American League.

They made a big splash this offseason by acquiring Juan Soto in a trade with the Padres. They traded for Alex Verdugo and signed Marcus Stroman. The offseason was automatically amazing considering they got Juan Soto, but after that, it was mostly smaller moves.

The Yankees had an excellent first half, going 58-40 while rocking the best run differential in the sport. They had the fourth-best winning percentage, aided by scoring the most runs in the league. The offense was unstoppable, and Yankee fans had dreams of this moment early on.

GM Brian Cashman had a so-so deadline. The big move was adding Jazz Chisholm, who put up the highest fWAR among all players traded at the deadline. He brought speed and versatility to a team that needed it. They also added Mark Leiter Jr and Enyel De Los Santos to the bullpen. De Los Santos is gone, and Leiter is now a fine piece in this Yankees bullpen. The Chisholm move was great, but other than that, some meat was left on the bone.

They weren’t quite as good in the second half, but they were still one of the better teams in baseball. They went 36-28, which could have been better, but the offense and the pitching were well above average.

In the second half, they posted a 119 wRC+, third-best in baseball, right behind the Dodgers. They also put up a 3.98 FIP as a pitching staff, a better mark than the Dodgers.

Gerrit Cole ending the season strong for the Yankees was huge, posting a 1.93 ERA in August and a 2.53 ERA in September. They lost games they shouldn’t have because of some bullpen blunders, but overall the team was playing well.

The Yankees entered the playoffs with high hopes. They were the number one seed and were tasked with playing the winner of Royals vs Orioles. I wonder if the baseball world would have called the path “easy” if the Orioles had won. It’s more of a name brand, a team people feel better about. But, the Royals swept while only allowing one run against that Orioles offense. While the Royals had five fewer wins during the regular season than Baltimore, they had the same run differential.

The Yankees won that series in four games, with the lone loss against left-hander Cole Ragans. This is the split in which the Yankees have struggled the most.

The Guardians beat the Tigers, who beat the Astros. If the Astros were good enough to beat the Tigers, maybe the baseball world wouldn’t have continued to call this road easy. It’s more of a name brand, a team people feel better about.

That’s not how baseball works, and the Guardians advanced to play the Yankees. The Guardians went 92-69 with a +87 run differential, both better marks than the New York Mets. I ran a poll on Twitter of which team would win in a seven-game series: the Mets or the Guardians. The poll got around 1500 votes, and 64% said the Mets. I’m afraid I have to disagree; it’s much closer than people think.

The Yankees went on to win that series in five. The only loss was a game in which Matthew Boyd started, another lefty, a split in which the Yankees were below .500 against this season.

The Yankees are getting dinged by baseball media and the fans for having an “easy” path. Granted, it’s easier than the Dodgers, who had to go through the Padres, but it’s disrespectful to the Guardians and Royals. Both were outstanding teams, and I’m not convinced they couldn’t hang with the Brewers, Mets, Braves, or Phillies. They might have even beaten them.

The Yankees are smashing the ball on offense right now, and the bullpen has stepped up big-time in the playoffs. The starting rotation has been above average but not elite. This is a well-balanced machine that knows it is the underdog, a dangerous combination.

New York Yankees By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense

Playoff Statistics

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

Starting Rotation (Playoffs)

Regular Season Statistics (Bullpen, Defense, Speed)

Bullpen

• FIP: 3.96 (19th)
• xFIP: 3.92 (11th)
• SIERA: 3.67 (13th)
• K-BB%: 14.8% (13th)
• ERA: 3.62 (6th)

Defense:

• Def fWAR: 14.8 (10th)
• OAA: 9 (10th)
• UZR/150: 2.5 (7th)
• DRS: 31 (12th)

Baserunning

• BsR: -16.9 (30th)
• Stolen Bases: 88 (24th)

Important Splits

Important X-Factors

Is Home Field Advantage Important?

The short answer is no. The Dodgers have been fantastic in Dodger Stadium, but the Yankees were the only team in baseball with 50 wins or more on the road.

Tickets for these series are so otherworldly expensive that I fear both teams’ crowd advantages won’t be as high as they might be in other series or World Series’ past. World Series tickets have always been expensive, but not at this level, especially with it being in New York and Los Angeles. The Dodgers are a solid road team, and the Yankees are a solid home team. Strength on strength.

I give the Dodgers a slight advantage because they’ll be able to get the last at-bat in four of the seven games if needed, but it’s not that big of a deal.

Yankees vs Right Handed Pitching

No team in Major League Baseball had a better record against right-handed starters this season. The Yankees had the highest wRC+ at home this season against righties, and the highest on the road. The only lefty they’ll definitely face in this series is bullpen arm Anthony Banda.

Alex Vessia is trending in the right direction, but the rosters are announced on Friday morning. We don’t know yet, but I’ll assume he’ll be in that bullpen.

The Yankees still have a significant edge here; they are a perfect 7-0 against righties in the postseason and have the best winning percentage against righties in the regular season. The Dodgers are 13 games over .500 against righties, while the Yankees are 28 games over .500. The Yankees have a .805 OPS against righties in the playoffs but just a .656 OPS against lefties. The Yankees will be in their preferred split for nearly the entire series.

Dodgers vs Left Handed Pitching

The Dodgers can hit anyone; let’s make that clear first. But they transform from a Lamborghini to an Autobot in the regular season and the playoffs. They didn’t face any lefty starters in the series against San Diego, but they feasted against the Mets. Manaea was dominant in the playoffs but didn’t fare well against the Dodgers. Quintana had no chance out there, and when they saw David Peterson, it didn’t go so well either.

The Dodgers were an other-worldly 36-17 against left-handers this season, with the best numbers across the board against left-handed starters. The Dodgers posted an incredible .858 OPS against left-handers in the postseason but a .751 OPS against right-handers. They’ll get two games against Carlos Rodon in the playoffs, and the Yankees have Tim Hill and Tim Mayza in the bullpen. The Yankees better be careful with how they use their lefties; it could get out of hand quickly.

Blake Treinen & the Dodgers Bullpen

Yes, Blake Treinen is so good that he needs his category. He has a 1.13 ERA this postseason. The turbo sinker and sweeper are unhittable. Luke Weaver of the Yankees is great, and the Dodgers do have some excellent arms alongside Treinen, but nobody can touch him. Having a bullpen weapon like this is underrated, especially when he’s the only one I trust that can be brought in any spot against any hitter. A true weapon in the bullpen.

The Dodgers bullpen is also better than the Yankees. Especially if they get Alex Vessia and Brusdar Graterol back, it’s a unit with elite high-leverage arms scattered throughout. The Yankees have an excellent bullpen, but it doesn’t have the stuff that the Dodgers have. The Dodgers will regularly have the advantage in the later innings if it’s close.

Starting Pitching Mismatch

The Yankees have the better starting pitching. Granted, the offense they’ve faced has been easier than what the Dodgers have gone up against, but the numbers are drastically different. 6.08 Starter ERA versus a 3.89 Starter ERA is beyond competition; there is an edge here.

Gerrit Cole has a 2.98 ERA in 120 career postseason innings, and nobody has better underlying metrics in the playoffs than Carlos Rodon. Clarke Schmidt has been solid, and Luis Gil is a complete wild card. Beyond the production, starters giving the Yankees length saves the bullpen. The Dodgers will likely have a bullpen game mixed in, so if their starters don’t perform, the Dodgers bullpen will have to carry the load. That doesn’t sound like a good recipe against this Yankees offense.

Giancarlo Stanton vs Who?

The best hitter in this series right now is Giancarlo Stanton. He’s had a better playoff run than Aaron Judge has in the regular season. He’s hitting the ball so hard, and it’s often leaving the stadium. He’s an enormous X-Factor in a seven-game series; he can change the game with one swing of the bat.

Who will be that guy for the Dodgers? Is it Enrique Hernandez, or maybe Tommy Edman again? Max Muncy has been destroying baseballs as well. Who knows who will step up for LA, but they need someone beyond Ohtani and Mookie, as Judge and Soto largely cancel them out.

Freddie Freeman

“With this time off, it’s going to be a 100% go for me in Game 1,’’ Freeman said. “I don’t think there’s any question in anybody’s mind that I will be in the lineup for Game 1.’’

I’m curious to know how he’s 100%. A true professional like Freddie Freeman would never let the opponent know he’s not feeling great; of course, he says that.

Do you think a legend like Freddie Freeman would miss this series? You could have chopped off his foot, and he’d find a way to fit his calf into his cleats.

He hurt his ankle down the stretch, which bothered him in October. Outside of Austin Wells, he’s been both teams’ worst hitter in the playoffs. I hope he’s feeling suitable for this series because he’s fantastic, and it’ll make the series better, but I have no evidence he will be 100% outside of him saying so. He didn’t even play the series’ final game against a lefty, something that became routine. I have to slightly downgrade the offense because of this. My guess is Freddie will play better than he’s shown so far, but I can’t bank on that.

Baserunning

The Yankees were picked off multiple times in the playoffs. It didn’t end up hurting them, but it will against the Dodgers. They had the lowest BsR in the league this year; they are the worst baserunning team in Major League Baseball. They already don’t steal bases much, so they can’t afford to give up base-runners against this Dodgers team. It’s the Yankees’ weakest quality and is undoubtedly an edge for the Dodgers.

FanGraphs Projection Models (Series)

My Pick:

This feels like a coin-flip series. The Dodgers have the better offense and bullpen, but the Yankees have the better starting rotation and defense. The Dodgers’ advantages on offense and in the bullpen are slim, as the Yankees are right there with them.

The true advantage lies in the starting pitching, as every pitcher on the Dodgers has a question mark. Jack Flaherty was averaging 90 MPH in his last start. Yamamoto needs rest to be effective. Buehler has a long-standing postseason pedigree, and looked great in his last start, but what will we get in this one?

The starters have question marks, and they are all right-handed. As we stated earlier, the Yankees are the best team in baseball against righties and the best road team. The Dodgers have a prolific offense to hit anyone, but they’ll mostly face right-handers, a split in which the Yankees lead in OPS in the playoffs by 50 points and were better in the regular season.

After reviewing everything, the Dodgers are the slightly better team. I think the Yankees will have a slight advantage on a game-by-game basis, considering their explosiveness against right-handed pitching. If you simulated this series 1000 times, I think both teams win 500 times. I don’t give much of an edge for the home field so my line on this series is -110 on both sides accounting for vig.

The projection models give the Dodgers a slight edge, but even the biggest Dodger-loving model doesn’t show value on them to win the series based on the current betting market.

This is so close that if the Yankees were -130 and the Dodgers were +110, I’d be on the Dodgers. However, the Yankees are at +110, and I see a 20-cent difference between my and BetMGM’s lines. That’s a lot of value in a series like this, so I’m rolling with the Bronx Bombers to take home their 28th championship.

The Pick: New York Yankees to Win the World Series (+110) Risk 2 Units

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