Variance this time of the year is wild. We hit the Braves team total at a plus number, which guarantee a winning day. It wasn’t easy, as the Braves scattered two in the first, two in the fifth, and then Jarred Kelenic hit a home run in the bottom of the ninth against Devin Williams to seal it. What a rush.

That feeling was halted, as the under in Seattle did not get there. We needed a clean ninth inning, but the Mariners had other plans. Instead of trying to keep the game close, they threw the bottom of the bullpen. A losing bet is a losing bet, I’m not even worried about that. I just couldn’t believe that Scott Servais managed the bullpen like that in a playoff race. What was he thinking?

Regardless, we were technically in the green. It’s been a wild last three days, but we still haven’t lost a dime over that span. Let’s continue that today with an early first pitch in our nation’s capital.

2024 Record: 96-100 (-7.11 U)

San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals @ 12:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Harrison (4.09 ERA) vs. DJ Herz (4.27 ERA)

I would power rank the Giants a few slots over the Nationals, but the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Between the two young lefties, Herz is throwing better at the moment. Both offenses are red-hot, but the Nationals have the home-field advantage, which is more important here than in other matchups.

Herz’s 4.27 ERA is different from what he deserves. He’s rocking a 3.19 xERA, a 4.12 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, and 3.27 SIERA. All ERA predictors believe ERA will start trending downward, and I agree. The young southpaw has a 29.4% strikeout rate with a 6.5% walk rate. Both metrics are in the upper third of the league, with his strikeout rate nearing elite levels. He’s also in the league’s upper half in allowing hard contact. He’s been imposing.

DJ Herz has gone under 2.5 earned runs in five of his last six games at home. He usually doesn’t go very long, regularly going five innings. He’s also faced some solid lineups of late between the Mets, Padres, Cardinals, and Brewers. In his last start, he stifled the Brewers to only two hits and one earned run in five innings while striking out six.

His stuff looks great right now, and he’s been objectively better at home this season, putting up a 3.41 ERA over seven home starts compared to a 6.75 ERA on the road. It makes sense, the 23 year old prefers pitching at his home ballpark with the crowd behind him. For what it’s worth, he’s rocking a 3.86 ERA during the day and a 4.91 ERA during night games. He’s actually made six starts during the day this year and the majority have been solid.

He’ll go up against Kyle Harrison, who needs to be more consistent. He gets destroyed by Cleveland, pitches well against the Twins, dominates the Rockies, then is blown up by the Reds. He’s hard to nail down when the blow-up is coming, but his splits do show a pattern of where it usually takes place.

Harrison has posted a 3.47 ERA at home versus a 4.67 ERA on the road. He’s posted a 5.93 ERA during day games compared to a 3.41 ERA during night games. It makes sense; the 22-year-old left-hander likes pitching in his home park, one of the best pitching parks in the league. He is averaging 3.4 runs per game in his last five road starts.

Harrison is due for regression overall. His 4.09 ERA is better than his 4.86 xERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, and 4.19 SIERA. His strikeout and walk rate are considerably worse than Herz’s, and he’s allowing far harder contact (38.1% HHR vs 45.6% HHR).

Overall, this season, these offenses are similar. The Nationals are hitting .259/312/.376 as a team versus the Giants at .254/.314/.401. Over the last two weeks against left-handed pitching, both teams are mashing. The Giants have a 164 wRC+, second-best in the league. The Nationals have a 162 wRC+, ranking fourth. The Nationals aren’t displaying the power the Giants have, but the batting average and OBP is considerably higher during that span.

Another wrinkle in this. I’m writing this before lineups have been released, but I’ll be surprised if Patrick Bailey is behind the plate today. He’s been catching all three games of this series, and it’s a day game after a night game. That’s important because the Nationals live on the basepaths, so if one of the best arms is not behind the plate, we should see them utilize their legs more than they have previously. If he does play, it’s not a big deal, but I hope he doesn’t.

The Washington bullpen could be more outstanding, especially after trading away a few key arms. They do have their better arms ready to go for this one; Kyle Finnegan (3.30 ERA), Jacob Barnes (3.97 ERA), Derek Law (3.07 ERA), and Robert Garcia (4.91 ERA). I’m not out here pounding the pavement that they will shut it down, but it’s the best the Nationals got and it’s good enough to stay in this one.

With the way this series has gone, the Giants bullpen could be in a better rest spot. Only Erik Miller (3.49 ERA) and Tyler Rogers (3.10 ERA) are on proper rest schedules. Everyone else would be making their third appearance in four games, or they had 40+ pitches two days ago. I’d give the Giants the overall bullpen edge, but it’s razor-thin with how the rest schedules line up.

If I give the Giants the bullpen edge, why am I not going first five? Depending on where you look, the Giants are slight favorites on the first five, while the full game’s gap is larger. I don’t see it that way, I think it’s pretty even across the board.

Especially with how these teams have played in these respective spots. The Giants are ten games over .500 at home this season, going 33-23. On the road, they are ten games under .500, going 25-35. The Nationals are 26-30 at home versus 26-33 on the road, so they play slightly better at home, and the Giants are far worse on the road.

It’s also a four-game set, and it’s hard to win three out of four on the road. If the Nationals weren’t swinging the bats like they are right now, I might be hesitant. But they were hitting Blake Snell yesterday, a feat nobody has accomplished lately. Now they get a much more palatable lefty who has yet to perform in spots like these. I’m taking the home dog down to +100 or better.

The Pick: Nationals ML (+110) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500