Who Will Win the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby?

The 2024 MLB Home Run Derby is tonight at 8 PM EST, and I can’t wait. 2023 Home Run Derby champ Vlad Guerrero Jr. will not be defending his title, but Pete Alonso is the favorite to win the event and is chasing his third Home Run Derby crown. The field has combined for 147 home runs this season, and Gunnar Henderson leads it with 27.

For the last three years, we’ve written an article predicting the winner of the Home Run Derby based on max exit velocity and stamina. 2021 we correctly predicted Pete Alonso to win the derby at +450. In 2022, Colby predicted Julio Rodriguez at +1000, and Peter retook Pete Alonso, veering off the system.

Julio Rodriguez made the finals but was ultimately beaten by Juan Soto (who fit the system). In 2023, Colby and Peter picked Julio Rodriguez and Luis Robert Jr., but Vlad Guerrero, who also qualified by the system, was crowned champion. Some years, multiple players fit the criteria, so it’s about choosing the right one. The “formula” has been spot on for every home run derby winner since 2016, and this year, only one player in the field qualifies, which we’ll outline below.

Before we dive into the analysis, let’s first cover the competition rules, which have changed slightly over the years.

Home Run Derby Rules

In 2015, the rules changed from an “outs” game to one with a clock. This changed the dynamic of the competition, as now it’s more a battle of stamina.

This year’s first round will have no predetermined seeds. All eight hitters compete, and the top four home run totals will move on to the next round. If there is a tie after the first round, the tiebreaker will be who had the longest home run hit in that round. For reference, Bobby Witt Jr is the favorite on BetMGM to hit the longest home run.

Each batter will have three minutes in round 1, round 2, and two minutes in the championship round to hit as many home runs as possible. Thirty seconds of bonus time will be granted to each hitter after the round, and an additional 30 seconds can be earned by hitting at least one home run that exceeds 440 feet.

This year, there is a new wrinkle to the clock. There is a maximum number of pitches each hitter can see in each round. The first round and semifinals will end whenever three minutes, or 40 pitches, comes first. In the finals, will end whenever two minutes, or 27 pitches, comes first, excluding the bonus period.

Overall, it’s not much of a difference between last year’s rules, just a few tweaks.

Past Winners

Every home run derby winner since 2016 has displayed two traits. A max exit velocity over 116 MPH, and under 26 years old. We are looking for players with stamina that hit the ball really hard. –

Players who can hit the ball as hard as possible will be able to hit the ball further, leading to more home runs. The rapid-fire nature of the competition also adds an element of stamina, so you’ll see a trend of younger players winning the derby in recent years. We now have access to swing speed data, which also lends itself to hitting the ball further, so I’ll include that data in my analysis below as well.

Max Exit Velocity

As exit velocity increases, potential home run distance also increases, which gives hitters a better chance to hit home runs even on slight mishits. Below are the winners of the HR Derby since 2015 and their max exit velocity from that season.

There has not been a Home Run Derby winner since 2016 with a max exit velocity below 116 MPH. Even second-place finishers Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Joc Pederson, Miguel Sano, Kyle Schwarber, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Trey Mancini all had max exit velocities over 114 MPH. It’s simple: the contestants who hit the ball have the best chance at winning.

Age is not just a number.

Adding a time limit instead of the traditional outs system increased the pace of the Home Run Derby. Players have three minutes with one timeout throughout the round, which creates a rapid-fire scenario. It’s easy to get burnt out in the first and second rounds and run out of gas to finish strong and win. It is hard to quantify stamina, but the basic assumption is that the younger players have fresher bodies and longer stamina.

Since 2016, a Home Run Derby winner has not been older than 26. It’s a young man’s game!

Picking the 2024 Home Run Derby Winner

Here are the betting odds for each participant from BetMGM with their max exit velocity and age. When you deposit and bet up to $1500 on your first bet, you get up to $1500 back in bonus bets if the first bet loses. Click here to redeem the $1500 First Bet Offer or use code JUSTBASEBALL when signing up.

Only Bobby Witt Jr. fits the mold for having a max exit velocity over 116 MPH and an age below 26. I gave Pete Alonso the benefit of the doubt in 2021 as a 27-year-old with a history of winning the event, but his price tag of +310 this year and 29 years old makes his value unappealing to me. Gunnar Henderson has age on his side, but he has the second-lowest max exit velocity among contestants, which makes me want to stay away at his current price. However, I wouldn’t blame anyone for betting on Gunnar.

Both Alec Bohm and Teoscar Hernandez are immediate stay-away candidates as they are far from having a max exit velocity of 116 MPH. If you are going to play one of the long shots, Jose Ramirez is showing the best value with a 116 MPH max exit velocity from the right side. He also has the benefit of being a switch hitter, which boosts his stamina. I’m staying away from Jose Ramirez.

Analyzing Swing Speed Data

Baseball Savant released bat tracking data to the public earlier this year, so we now have access to average and max swing speeds from all of the 2024 Home Run Derby contestants. The current home run derby format is about hitting long home runs to pick up the extra 30-second bonus and hitting home runs on imperfect contact. The ability to hit the ball further on imperfect contact increases as swing speed increases.

Unsurprisingly, the two youngest players, Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr., and a two-time HR derby champ, Pete Alonso, have a clear edge on the field in max swing speed. While Gunnar Henderson has a surprisingly low max exit velocity of 113.1 MPH in 2024, his max swing speed being near the top of the field makes me less concerned, especially with how young he is, so he has a shot in this year’s home run derby.

Colby Olson’s Official Home Run Derby Pick

Bobby Witt Jr. +500 (1U)

Bobby Witt Jr. excels in all three Home Run Derby system areas. He has the highest max exit velocity among the field and the second highest max swing speed, and at the ripe age of 24, he should excel stamina-wise. He also has a very short, compact swing that will be easy to repeat and will help conserve energy into the later rounds.

Bobby Witt Jr. opened at +700, and his odds have continued to creep down to +500, which means money has poured in on Witt, and oddsmakers are adjusting.

Gunnar Henderson has a real shot in this competition with his age and swing speed, but his low max exit velocity gives me pause. Bobby Witt Jr. is a much better value at +500, fitting all criteria, versus Gunnar at +475.

Peter Appel’s Official Home Run Derby Pick

Bobby Witt Jr +500 (0.5 U)

The only man that fits the system to a tee. He’s young, he’s got insane levels of juice, and he’s the hometown kid. He grew up in Colleyville, Texas, a suburb outside of the Dallas area. He grew up an easy car ride away from Globe Life Field. Is there a better story than that?

He’s also competed in and won home run derbies before. He won against Rece Hinds, who’s hitting dingers at will for the Reds. This was back in 2018 when Bobby Witt was in High School at Nationals Park. 

We grabbed Witt when the odds opened, but he’s still my pick at these odds. With every other participant not fitting the system, it has to be Bobby.