Freddie Freeman. Grand Slam to win Game 1 for the Dodgers. As a Yankee fan, that crushed me. As a bettor, it made us money on the over. At least I had that to fall back on.

We also lost on the Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (+135), making our total profit for the game +0.0 units. No harm, no foul, and now we move to game two.

This article will feature my best bets for the series’ first game, but if you’re interested in a complete series breakdown, you can find that here.

This playoff run we’ve been on has been a lot of fun. We are up 10.60 Units in the playoffs, meaning a $100 unit bettor is up $1,060, taking my plays in October. We hope to continue the hot streak into the World Series, but nothing is guaranteed. I also want to remind everyone that my plays always get better as I’m able to watch how these two teams play each other. My worst days have always come in Game 1s, play accordingly. I have full confidence in these plays, but I think that disclaimer is important.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (3.96 ERA) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA)

Nobody has better underlying metrics so far this postseason than Carlos Rodon. Unfortunately for him, he has his toughest matchup of the year. The Dodgers went 36-17 against lefties in the regular season while posting the highest wRC+ in the league. Outside of Manaea’s first start, the Dodgers have demolished every left-hander in their path. The Yankees path to a win is Rodon replicating Manaea’s performance while the Yankees get to Yamamoto early and then deep into the Dodgers bullpen.

That’s a lot to ask against this Dodgers offense, but it’s possible. I priced this game at Dodgers -140 to the Yankees at +120, so I’m in line with the market on a winner in this game. After watching last night’s game, I expected a juiced 8.5 total and that’s what we have. I still like the over, but I think this pitching matchup combined with a wild-card of an umpire. Per Umpire Auditor, Andy Fletcher had the worst game of the playoffs so far, missing 16 calls in Game 1 of the NLDS between the Mets and Phillies.

If I were to make a pick on the side or total, I would go with the over. I lean over because these offenses are so elite, but that’s the only reason. Rodon is pitching at a high level, and Yamamoto performed very well against the Yankees this season. I was at Yankee Stadium to watch him dice through their lineup, albeit it wasn’t the same lineup we see today. Every reliever should be available again; a juiced 8.5 is correct.

So that leaves us with looking at the prop market, and this player has been fantastic for us this postseason in spots like these. At home, against a lefty, you should know who I’m talking about.

Los Angeles Dodgers By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	fWAR
Shohei Ohtani (DH)	181	.431	1.036	9.2
Mookie Betts (RF)	141	.371	.863	4.4
Freddie Freeman (1B)	137	.365	.854	4.0
Teoscar Hernandez (LF)	134	.360	.840	3.5
Max Muncy (3B)	135	.362	.852	2.4
Will Smith (C)	111	.326	.760	2.7
Enrique Hernandez (CF)	83	.285	.654	0.7
Tommy Edman (SS)	98	.307	.711	0.9
Gavin Lux (2B)	100	.310	.703	1.5
Team	118	.337	.781	33.7

Playoff Statistics

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	Hard-Hit Rate
Shohei Ohtani (DH)	166	.409	.934	44%
Mookie Betts (RF)	182	.435	1.063	47.2%
Freddie Freeman (1B)	31	.208	.461	26.9%
Teoscar Hernandez (LF)	101	.312	.690	32.1%
Max Muncy (3B)	187	.439	1.014	34.8%
Will Smith (C)	78	.277	.605	28.1%
Enrique Hernandez (CF)	145	.377	.863	24%
Tommy Edman (SS)	123	.345	.811	22%
Gavin Lux (2B)	61	.258	.593	26.1%
Team	122	.343	.785	30.8%

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

Name	xERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Jack Flaherty	3.51	3.10	3.48	3.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	3.44	3.14	2.61	2.86
Walker Buehler	4.68	4.54	5.54	4.49

Name	ERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Jack Flaherty	7.04	5.51	6.23	5.86
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	5.11	3.61	4.71	4.07
Walker Buehler	6.00	4.55	4.61	5.18
Team	6.08	4.78	5.59	5.17

New York Yankees By the Numbers

Regular Season Statistics

Offense

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	fWAR
Aaron Judge (CF)	218	.476	1.159	11.2
Juan Soto (RF)	180	.421	.988	8.1
Gleyber Torres (2B)	104	.313	.708	1.7
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)	116	.330	.773	0.8
Austin Wells (C)	105	.315	.717	3.4
Anthony Volpe (SS)	86	.287	.657	3.4
Jazz Chisholm (3B)	132	.353	.825	2.3
Anthony Rizzo (1B)	84	.285	.636	-0.2
Alex Verdugo (LF)	83	.283	.675	0.6
Team	117	.331	.761	33.7

Playoff Statistics

Name	wRC+	wOBA	OPS	Hard-Hit Rate
Aaron Judge (CF)	94	.299	.704	45%
Juan Soto (RF)	203	.452	1.106	44.4%
Gleyber Torres (2B)	141	.365	.832	33.3%
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)	220	.478	1.179	59.3%
Austin Wells (C)	-1	.163	.348	33.3%
Anthony Volpe (SS)	147	.374	.804	39.1%
Jazz Chisholm (3B)	37	.218	.481	29.2%
Anthony Rizzo (1B)	182	.423	1.000	0%
Alex Verdugo (LF)	60	.251	.544	25%
Team	117	.330	.759	36.6%

Starting Rotation (Regular Season)

Name	xERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Gerrit Cole	3.59	3.79	3.69	3.99
Carlos Rodon	3.96	3.78	4.39	4.09
Clarke Schmidt	3.75	3.77	3.58	3.92
Luis Gil	3.83	4.22	4.14	4.36

Starting Rotation (Playoffs)

Name	ERA	SIERA	FIP	xFIP
Gerrit Cole	3.31	5.02	3.60	5.39
Carlos Rodon	4.40	1.75	2.12	1.99
Clarke Schmidt	3.86	4.37	4.56	4.62
Luis Gil	4.50	6.74	3.92	6.94
Team	3.89	3.81	3.35	4.26

Teoscar Hernandez could have gone 3-4 yesterday. He had a 101.7 MPH lineout with a .430 xBA against Luke Weaver. Expected Batting Average (xBA) is a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit. So, the expected batting average of contact like what Teoscar showed would be .430, but it ended up having an actual batting average of .000.

That wasn’t the only time he was robbed; he had a lineout against Gerrit Cole with a .830 xBA. He still had a hit in this game, ripping a single. He had some excellent ABs, but they didn’t produce much. Now, his lines are cheap in a better matchup.

Carlos Rodon is currently pitching at an elite level, but Teoscar is an elite weapon against left-handed pitching. He put up a .931 OPS against left-handed pitching this year, and his OPS is 85 points higher at home. There is no better matchup for Teoscar than a left-handed pitcher at Dodger Stadium.

Teoscar has faced off against Rodon before. He’s just 1-9 against him. That’s providing us some value in his lines. Not only is this usually a good matchup for him, but the average ball of his bat against Rodon is 99.4 MPH. Those stats are old, but still, when he sees him, the ball comes off his bat with authority.

Carlos Rodon is relatively straightforward; he’s like the left-handed Dylan Cease (who the Dodgers destroy every time). 75% of his arsenal is fastballs and sliders, and a most of those fastballs are up in the zone, and he tunnels the slider off that.

As you can see, Teoscar has crushed high fastballs against left-handed pitchers, the location Rodon mostly lives in. Rodon tunnels his slider off his fastball, and it normally ends up low and in. Can’t do that against Teoscar, that’s the location he crushes sliders.

Rodon does mix in a changeup and curveball to righties, but I wouldn’t do that to Teoscar, either. He has an 11 run-value against changeups and curveballs, his two favorite pitches to hit, and those numbers only go up against lefties.

For what Rodon wants to do, there isn’t a better matchup on the board, relative to price, than Teoscar Hernandez. I also looked at Tommy Edman and liked his matchup a lot today. He’s likely to be moved to the fifth hole against a lefty, but his lines are more expensive than Teoscar. Part of this bet is that Teoscar has hitters behind him to score, and Edman could be that bat.

Teoscar is very live for RBIs and runs in this category, even if he never gets a hit. We know how good the top of the lineup is; sacrifice flies are well within play. Mookie Betts didn’t have a hit yesterday and still went over this line. Being in the middle of that lineup leads to a ton of opportunities to get this over the hump. He can do it in one swing. He could smash a single that scores Ohtani, Mookie, or Freeman. He may get on by walking, and Edman, Hernandez, Smith, or Pages could drive him home.

At even money, Teoscar shows the most value of any player prop. I have this priced at -135, so I would bet this to -115.

The Pick: Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 H/R/RBI (+100) Risk 1 Unit

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