The Diamondbacks Will Have the Best Rotation in Baseball
Just Baseball's Clay Snowden is all in on Arizona's starting rotation this season. Here's why.
I know, I know, ranking season is over, and we need to shift our focus to real baseball. But let me just squeeze this in before it is too late. Considering how many injuries happen to pitchers, I wanted to wait until rosters were set before making this claim:
The Arizona Diamondbacks will have the best rotation in baseball.
While you may not be fully convinced of that in March, come October, I think you could agree with me. Proven veterans, young arms with upside, and depth give Arizona the type of formula that helps teams remain consistent over the course of 162 games.
Just Baseball’s own Rachael Millanta recently wrote an article highlighting the top five rotations and placed the Diamondbacks at number four. While Rachael’s reasoning is fair and just, I tend to think the Diamondbacks have a higher ceiling, and floor, than most.
Arizona’s High-End Talent
Every top-tier rotation needs at least one ace-level pitcher, usually two. The Diamondbacks check that box with both Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen. Two elite pitchers that they can count on to give them an ERA of 3.50 or below.
Burnes comes with a more decorated track record of four All-Star appearances and a Cy Young. He’s been a workhorse, giving his teams right around 200 innings each of the last three seasons, and he does not seem to be slowing down.
Not only can you count on Burnes to be available every fifth day, but you can rely on him and his 2.33 career playoff ERA once October comes around.
Gallen has dealt with injuries at times in his career but has made at least 28 starts each of the past three seasons. Like Burnes, Gallen comes with a level of consistency that helps propel him to the top of the rotation. Knowing you can rely on your starter to get through five without exploding, as a baseline, is an underrated part of pitching.
Adding Burnes to the mix gave the Diamondbacks a one-two punch that makes them dangerous in any playoff series. Facing back-to-back pitchers who just know how to get outs is frustrating for any lineup.
Considering how reliable both these arms have been the past few seasons, the Diamondbacks have a top two that will not only give them high-level inning, but a level of comfort that’s rare when it comes to pitchers these days.
Middle of the Rotation and Upside
Next in line for my great rotation formula is an experienced middle of the rotation. Not just experience, but proven experience. Guys who have done it before and offer a certain level of confidence that they will do it again. Mix in an upside arm and you have plenty of ammo to get through the season.
Headlining this group is Merrill Kelly. The 36-year-old missed most of last season due to injury but was great in 2022 and 2023.
With a full offseason to get healthy, I expect Kelly to return to form in 2025. There’s less pressure on the aging veteran with the Burnes addition, and the D-backs do not need him to be lights out. All they need is a mid-three’s ERA and for him to eat innings, something he’s very capable of.
Another reason why Kelly’s pressure is taken down a notch is because of Brandon Pfaadt. The 26-year-old made major strides last season, seeing improvements across the board that led to a 3.73 FIP across 32 starts.
It looks like Pfaadt made a few changes this spring, and his five-pitch mix allows him to get outs in different ways. He’s still developing but offers a level of upside that could give the Diamondbacks a legit three-headed monster.
Rounding out the rotation is the ever-interesting Eduardo Rodriguez. What do we make of a guy who’s sometimes excellent, often injured, and sometimes too hittable? Who really knows, but he has tons of experience and is a pretty high-end five.
Rodriguez looked great this spring and seemed to find the level of command that made him great with the Tigers two seasons ago. If nothing else, he’s better than most teams’ fifth starters, and there’s still “the good Eduardo Rodriguez” somewhere in there.
I’m putting a lot of faith and value in Pfaadt taking a massive step forward. I’d argue that 2024 was his breakout season, and now he just needs to fine-tune his pitch mix and he could take off.
A big difference from his rookie season to last year was that he showed an ability to limit hard contact at a better rate while also cutting down on fly balls. If that trend continues, he is an X-factor for Arizona.
Rotation Depth
What really pushes the Diamondbacks over the top in the competition for the best rotation in baseball is their depth. Jordan Montgomery hitting the shelf didn’t help, but they still have more arms they can plug and play at a higher level than most organizations.
The first option is Ryne Nelson, who will open the season out of the bullpen. Nelson made 25 starts for Arizona last season, pitching to the tune of a 4.24 ERA and 3.74 FIP across 150.2 innings. From July on, he logged 82.2 innings at a 3.05 ERA with a bump in his whiff rate and really looked like a new pitcher.
He comes with a fastball that sits upper 90s with a slider that could make the upward trend in his strikeout rate prove to be legit. Starting him in the bullpen is not ideal, but there’s a good chance he could be moved to the rotation once an injury hits.
Arizona also has 24-year-old Yilber Diaz in the mix. He had a cup of coffee last season, making four starts, but will start the season in the minors.
Diaz has major strikeout stuff with command that needs to be ironed out. Although he still has much to prove, having an arm with his level of swing and miss (12 K/9) as an option in Triple-A gives the Diamondbacks another arm to dream one.
Both of these pitchers have the talent to be more than just a fifth starter. Whether or not they reach that bar this season is still a toss-up. However, as far as depth options go, Arizona is in a good spot compared to most rotations.
Arizona’s Competition
Anytime you are debating a top five list, you have to nitpick to an extent. We are talking about the elite staffs in all of baseball with razor-thin margins and differences between them. Everyone values different aspects differently, which is exactly what makes these conversations fun.
The three rotations Just Baseball ranked ahead of Arizona were Seattle, Philadelphia, and, of course, the Dodgers.
Seattle Mariners – George Kirby landing on the injured list with a shoulder injury does not help Seattle’s case. Kirby is not only a high-level talent, but shoulder injuries can be tricky and could impact his performance all season. Luis Castillo, in my opinion, is starting to enter the early stages of decline. Although I think he’ll still be effective, I do think he will take a step back.
I love everything that Logan Gilbert brings to the rotation. A high ceiling and floor pitcher who eats a ton of innings is always valuable. Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo come with plenty of upside, but the depth concerns me.
Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies have already taken a hit with Ranger Suárez landing on the IL, although it does not sound too serious. However, the injury pushes Taijuan Walker into the rotation, which could be a disaster. Mick Abel has not developed at the rate many had hoped, but Seth Johnson could be a decent depth option. The top of Philadelphia’s rotation is strong, but I do worry about injuries hurting their depth.
Andrew Painter has the ability to truly be a difference-maker and propel the Phillies to “best rotation” status. Yet, considering he has not pitched since 2022, he might make as much of an immediate impact as some expect.
Los Angeles Dodgers – On paper, the Dodgers have enough quality arms to make two rotations. High-end talent, budding stars, international splashes, they have it all. They also have a long history of injuries in the rotation and are already down several options. Although they are the leader on paper, I cannot seem to get past the injury history and concerns.
Final Thoughts
The competition for baseball’s best rotation is strong. Maybe I’m buying too much into Pfaadt’s breakout and Kelly’s bounce back. Maybe I’m trusting my gut feeling too much. But, the Diamondbacks have enough for the idea of them having the best rotation to be reasonable.
Adding Burnes is the type of move teams make when they are truly ready to push for a World Series. The Diamondbacks have built this team for a few years and are ready to go head-to-head with the almighty Dodgers.
Arizona is lining up for a special year in the desert.
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