Bailey Ober Has Been the Twins’ Best Pitcher for Two Months Now
Stars like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton get a lot of the credit for the Twins' success, but Bailey Ober has been an unsung hero in Minnesota this year.
It’s no secret that the Minnesota Twins made the playoffs last season on the back of their pitching staff, highlighted by outstanding seasons from both Sonny Gray and Pablo López.
The Twins are back in playoff contention again this year, but with Gray’s departure, López’s struggles, and not to mention Joe Ryan’s recent injury, Bailey Ober has been carrying the staff as of late.
While he may not be a household name, Ober had a breakout campaign last season in which he established himself as a legitimate starter. As the third option behind Gray and López, Ober posted a solid 3.43 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in relative anonymity. He struck out over a hitter per inning and had a solid 5.03 K/BB ratio.
Ober’s stellar dependability has continued into this season, as he has posted a nearly identical 3.49 ERA through his first 23 starts. His K/9 has ticked up to 9.4, and he has dropped his H/9 by over a hit. In short, Ober has built on his success last season and continued to improve, and his performance has kept the Twins afloat.
Ober is a very unique pitcher. Standing at 6-foot-9, he is one of the tallest hurlers in the game today. However, unlike a lot of history’s great giants on the mound, Ober does not have an overpowering fastball. Instead, he uses his massive frame to get near league-best extension and to snap off breaking and offspeed pitches.
In fact, Ober’s breaking pitch run value is in the 79th percentile, while his offspeed run value is in the top 1% of the game, sitting in the 99th percentile. These offerings help Ober get his 33% chase percentage, which is in the top 11% of the league.
As one would expect, such a high chase rate also puts Ober in the top quarter of the league in terms of strikeout rate and whiff rate.
It is also important to note that these numbers are not a fluke – many of Ober’s expected statistics are actually better than his results-based statistics. His xERA and xBA of 3.38 and .220, respectively, are both stellar marks for a starting pitcher.
Ober is also masterful at limiting hard contact, as his hard-hit percentage is in the upper third of the league, and his average exit velocity is in the 80th percentile. He is able to keep hitters off balance well given the 12-mph variance between his hardest and slowest offerings. Each of his pitches occupies a different velocity band, making him very difficult to time.
The steady improvement in Ober’s game since his 2021 debut has been relatively simple. He has thrown his worst pitch, his fastball, less and less each season. While the secret to unlocking a talented young arm is not always as simple as “throw your good pitches more,” that has been the case for Bailey Ober.
Hitters are hitting under .240 against Ober’s cutter, changeup, and slider, and are well below the Mendoza line for the latter two offerings. This is thanks in large part to the exceptional movement on those pitches.
Ober’s slider has over four inches more break than the average slider, and his changeup has an extra 2.5 inches of run compared to an otherwise similar, league-average pitch.
As the summer has heated up, Ober has only gotten better and better. Beginning with his start on June 16, Ober has strung together 10 consecutive quality starts. He has a 1.87 ERA and 75 strikeouts through 67.1 IP.
He has not just been the best pitcher on the Twins in that time, but arguably the best pitcher in the American League.
The highlight of his recent run was a complete-game masterpiece against Oakland on June 22, in which Ober struck out 10.
If the Minnesota Twins are going to continue to fend off the Kansas City Royals and Boston Red Sox in the American League Wild Card race, they are going to need their unsung hero, Bailey Ober, to continue to pitch at the same, All-Star-caliber level that he has over the past two months.
If Ober continues to live up to his nickname, “The Nightmare,” Minnesota will have as good of a one-two punch at the top of their rotation as any team in the American League entering the playoffs.
Stats updated prior to games on August 16.
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