Can Trea Turner Hit His Way Into the NL MVP Race?

There was some, perhaps justified, pushback when Trea Turner of the Philadelphia Phillies was announced as the starting shortstop for the National League All-Star team on July 3.

Granted, Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers surely would have been the starter for the senior circuit had he not fractured his left hand in mid-June.

But, given that Turner had just come back from a six-week absence with a left hamstring strain, you could definitely have made the case that Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds or Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets was more deserving.

However, in 11 games since being named an All-Star starter, Turner produced at a clip reminiscent of his dominance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, homering six times and driving in 14 runs.

Combine that performance with his elite numbers prior to his hamstring injury, and Turner was much more deserving of playing in the Midsummer Classic by the time July 16 came around.

In fact, Turner is hitting at such a remarkable clip that you wonder whether he could push his way into the NL MVP race if he remains healthy from here on out.

Ohtani and Harper Are Still the Favorites

Per BetMGM, Turner currently has +10000 odds for NL MVP; 11 other players currently have shorter odds.

But while Shohei Ohtani is having a monster first season for the Dodgers, no full-time DH has ever won an MVP, so he has that working against him. Bryce Harper, Turner’s teammate, has +600 odds but had a brief IL stint for a hamstring strain of his own.

One of Ohtani (-375) or Harper (+600) is overwhelmingly likely to win NL MVP in 2024. Yet, when Turner has been on the field, he’s certainly hit at an MVP level. He entered the All-Star break hitting .349 with 11 home runs, 14 doubles, 32 RBIs and a .941 OPS.

After posting a 4.3 fWAR across 155 games in his first season with the Phillies a year ago, Turner already has a 3.0 fWAR in 57 games in 2024

Hurting Turner’s Case

What will really hurt his case — beyond missing six weeks, of course — is that Turner continues to grade out poorly defensively. Turner has 10 errors, -7 defensive runs saved and -4 outs above average, marks that continue to spur discussions about how much longer he’ll be a shortstop.

Also working against Turner is the fact that, at 31 years old and having already dealt with a hamstring injury this year, he’s likely going to pick his spots more carefully when it comes to stealing bases.

Turner stole an NL-best 43 bases back in 2018 with the Washington Nationals. Heck, last year he went 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts. This year, he’s 12-for-13, so he continues to be effective on the basepaths.

However, playing for a team with World Series aspirations, Turner probably isn’t going to push things as much as he could in terms of stealing bases during the regular season. Steals wear a player down and come with an increased injury risk.

Trea Turner Is Playing at an MVP Level

With all that said, Turner still hitting .349 and providing elite power production for his position. If he wins the NL batting title, homers 25-30 times and is an elite baserunning weapon when he chooses to be, could he post the second top-five NL MVP finish in his career?

That seems possible, particularly since the Phillies have baseball’s best record.

Is Turner going to seriously challenge Ohtani and Harper for NL MVP? Most likely not, but the Phillies are receiving the impact from Turner that they expected when inking him to an 11-year, $300 million deal prior to the 2023 season.

Perhaps he’ll have a chance to win a more notable MVP in October.