Cubs Pull Off Blockbuster Trade with the Astros for Kyle Tucker

It’s safe to say that the offseason is not disappointing at all this December! We have experienced a whirlwind in the past couple weeks.

With the free agent market being wildly costly in the early weeks of the offseason, trade targets have began to emerge in recent weeks and top candidate Garrett Crochet was dealt to Boston this week.

The biggest name floated in recent weeks has been Kyle Tucker of the Houston Astros, who has been one of the steadiest players in baseball now for the past four seasons.

Despite dealing with the first big injury of his career this year, Tucker reached the next tier of performance as one of the best players in baseball when healthy. However, with just one year of control left, the Astros are starting a retool by trading him to the Cubs.

This is a massive get for Chicago as they work to get back into contention sooner-than-later. One of the best players in baseball is on the move, so let’s break it all down.

Fit with the Cubs

It has been reported by many this winter that the Cubs are ready to make moves and be aggressive to get back into contention. Once Juan Soto signed, Kyle Tucker became the best player available, free agent or trade target, in Major League Baseball.

Chicago has been in search for a superstar in the past couple seasons and they have certainly have found one in Tucker who will slot right into the heart of their lineup.

The Cubs have a deep system of talent and they were seemingly able to swing this deal without including their top assets. This is largely due to Tucker having just one year of control left on his contract, which means the Cubs will have to try and re-sign him during or after the season.

In terms of fit, Chicago does have ample outfielders already on the roster and are all but certain to trade at least one now. Cody Bellinger has already been floated in rumors and seems very likely to be on the move now this offseason. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are other possibilities to be moved in order to clear the logjam.

This move further pushes the Cubs into the contender tier as they work to improve their roster and take over a weak NL Central division. They’re likely not done here though as the Tucker move still gives them money to spend in free agency, especially if they’re able to move Cody Bellinger’s contract in a trade.

With a talented and deep farm system, the Cubs have the ability to remain active in trades as well. They’re clearly a buyer now and Kyle Tucker will be a massive addition to their lineup this season with the aim obviously being to sign him to a long term deal.

Career Trajectory

Drafted by the Astros out of high school in 2015, Tucker debuted in 2018 but only played 50 total MLB games between that season and the following one with Houston.

He broke out during the 2020 shortened season with Houston before entering true superstar status in 2021 when he posted a .917 OPS, 30 home runs, and 5.7 fWAR for the Astros.

Tucker remained a massive part of Houston’s lineup over the following seasons as truly one of the most reliable stars in baseball from 2021-2023. He played over 400 games and consistently put up quality contact, power, and speed numbers while playing a strong right field for the Astros.

After finishing fifth in MVP voting in 2023 in a season in which Tucker was one home run shy of a 30/30 season, he looked even better to start 2024. He was off to an unreal start with a legit shot to win MVP before going down with a shin injury in June that held him out until September.

Despite playing just 78 games, Tucker accumulated 4.7 WAR while having a .993 OPS and hitting 23 home runs. He was on pace to smash all of his previous career-highs, but the injury derailed that effort. Regardless, Tucker looked exceptional this season.

With just one year left of control, Tucker will hit free agency next year at just 28 years old and is certain to be one of the top players on the market. After seeing the contract Juan Soto just got, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Tucker could push for third-largest contract ever behind Soto and Shohei Ohtani.

Trade Return for Houston

The closest thing to a dynasty over the past decade might be slowly coming to an end as the Astros have now dealt Tucker and are likely to see Alex Bregman depart in free agency this winter.

Houston may not be rebuilding fully just yet, but they’re definitely entering a phase of uncertainty for the first time in a decade after being the clear American League juggernaut for quite some time.

Tucker having just one year left was incentive enough for Houston to cash in and they did just that by bringing in a trio of talented players in return for Tucker.

Isaac Paredes was just dealt to Chicago last trade deadline, but the Cubs have top prospect Matt Shaw ready to take over that spot.

For the Astros though, Paredes will instantly slot into the hole left by Bregman at third base. Paredes broke out in 2023 with a 31-homer season in Tampa before turning in a solid first half that landed him in Chicago.

While nowhere near Tucker’s level, he will fill a hole for Houston and will be just 26 years old heading into next season with a couple of good MLB seasons under his belt. The second piece is right-hander Hayden Wesneski, who was primarily a reliever while making spot starts last season. He’ll presumably have a shot to make starts for the Astros with the ability to be a quality bullpen piece otherwise.

The biggest prize of this deal for Houston is Just Baseball’s 44th-ranked prospect Cam Smith, who was just drafted in the first round by the Cubs in July. Smith was a standout at Florida State University and went on an absolute tear in the lower levels of MiLB in the final months of the season.

Smith hit six home runs in his 15 Low-A games prior to mashing at High-A for another 12 games and then finishing his season in Double-A for a handful of games. He’s likely to start in Double-A again this season and instantly becomes the best prospect in the Houston Astros’ farm system.