What the Detroit Tigers Have To Sell at the Deadline

As the end of July nears, a conversation that is all too familiar to Detroit Tigers fans begins. “Who is getting moved at the deadline?”

Prior to the All-Star break, the Tigers strung together an 8-2 stretch, while the offense put up significantly better numbers than they had most of the season.

Riley Greene has blossomed into an All-Star, Colt Keith is looking like the player we were promised, and the rotation continued to be the backbone of this team.

However, the Tigers entered the break three games below .500, 12 games back in the AL Central, and seven games back in the Wild Card. While some type of a run to the playoffs is possible, it’s highly unlikely.

FanGraphs gives Detroit a 10.3% chance of reaching the postseason, so moving a few pieces makes the most sense.

Of course, there are different levels to this label of “seller.” For the Tigers, there is not going to be another rebuild in 2024. Instead, moving out expiring contracts and bullpen pieces is the likely route. Oh yeah, and I guess we need to have the Skubal Discussion.

The Tigers’ Tarik Skubal Discussion

I’ll start by saying I would not trade Tarik Skubal at this deadline, and I highly doubt the Tigers will either. I understand the reasons why they might – his value is high, he has two and a half years of team control remaining, the Tigers need bats – but you have to get fair value in return, and that’s going to be tough.

Trading one of the best players in baseball is never easy. The package it should take to get Skubal is going to be so rich that only a couple of teams could pull it off.

The Tigers have enough control that they do not need to force a trade in the next two weeks and should not settle for anything less than a king’s ransom.

If moving Skubal is a priority, you can also do it in the offseason. Sure, half a year of control is gone, but there will also be more teams who could be interested, leading to more of a “bidding war” and more prospects for Detroit to choose from.

Keep in mind, the same reasons they might want to trade Skubal will also be reasons for hesitation from potential buyers. If you are part of the crowd that quotes: “two surgeries, will not sign an extension, highest value,” the GM on the other end can say the same thing. Health is never promised, but neither are prospects.

The Tigers need to start contending for the playoffs. No more excuses. Next season needs to be better than shooting for .500. There are other ways to acquire talent than trading a Cy Young talent with more than two seasons of control. Free agency, the draft, and the topic to which we’ll now transition: moving other players.

Jack Flaherty

2024 Stats: 3.13 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 100.2 IP, 127 K

Contract: Expiring (one year, $14 million)

Jack Flaherty has been a massive win for the Tigers front office.

Investing $14 million in a player who had injuries issues and command issues, but tons of talent, was a risk that ultimately paid off. The Tigers have to capitalize.

Contenders are usually looking for a starting pitcher to at least fill innings and help get their team to the playoffs. Flaherty could be more than that; he could be the type of acquisition that starts game two of a playoff series.

Questions about his recent injury scare were put on pause after his first two starts back came without any issues or dip in performance (11.2 IP, 3 ER, 12 K). If he can continue to show he’s healthy, the Tigers can bring back a very nice return.

There’s no shortage of potential suitors for Flaherty, which should help the Tigers. In terms of the type of return they can command, I think this is where the front office can help the team as early as next season.

Instead of targeting a 19-year-old, or a package of two or three mid-level prospects, the Tigers should look for young players knocking on the door in the upper minors.

Plenty of contenders have players who are either blocked or close to ready to contribute. Flipping a one-year, expiring deal into a bat with six years of control could help the Tigers as early as this season.

Fits: I keep coming back to the Guardians. Although such a trade would be within the AL Central, Flaherty is only a rental, making a deal more likely. The Padres are going to be wildly aggressive as always, Atlanta needs help but has a weaker farm, and the Dodgers have enough injuries to make them join the sweepstakes.

Carson Kelly

2024 Stats: .243/.323/.399, 7 HR, 106 wRC+

Contract: Expiring (one year, $3.5 million)

Carson Kelly has had a terrific season. Finally healthy, Kelly has tapped into some pop and looked more like the player the Diamondbacks thought they were getting when they acquired him from the Cardinals in the Paul Goldschmidt trade.

You could say it’s just a flash in the pan, but Kelly put up some solid numbers at times in Arizona before injuries led to poor play and, ultimately, a DFA.

As I always like to preface, catching is a defensive position first, and Kelly grades out well. He currently ranks in the 92nd percentile in blocks above average and 95th percentile in caught stealing above average. In fact, his ability to control the running game has been a strength throughout his career.

Any team looking to add a catcher – starter, platoon, or backup – should be in play. While I have nothing to back this claim up, Kelly feels like the type of player a team could bring in and quickly sign to an extension.

Finding catchers is hard, and if getting Kelly in the door early helps secure him for the future, a team might be more willing to target him in a trade.

I see the Kelly trade as an opportunity to for Detroit roll the dice. Instead of looking for the kind of player I outlined as the ideal return in a Flaherty deal, the Tigers could take more of a swing here. Maybe they target the teenager in the complex or a relief pitcher with high upside. They can afford to do a bang or bust.

Fits: The Phillies have J.T. Realmuto coming back from injury, and although Garrett Stubbs is a fan favorite of sorts, he’s underwhelming. Catcher might not be high among the Phillies’ priorities, but Kelly could be a good insurance policy for Realmuto.

The Cardinals and Pirates could also fit. Sneaky pick: the Reds. They need a better backup and could look to keep Kelly after this season.

The Tigers Have Bullpen Help to Offer

Every single year, a large number of bullpen arms are shipped from team to team. The Tigers have a few pieces that are obvious moves, and a couple of guys with control that could also make sense.

Keep in mind, pitching coach Chris Fetter and his staff have done a great job of developing and unlocking talent, so filling the gaps in the future does not concern me too much. As far as fits, almost all contenders could use another bullpen arm.

Jason Foley – 3.38 ERA, 4.42 FIP, FA 2028. Foley is obviously the biggest name in this bunch. With team control through the 2027 season and a solid track record, he will have plenty of interest and could bring back a solid prospect. I think he’s better in a set-up role, and I think that’s how other teams will view him as well. Detroit does not have to move Foley, and I am sure they are not in a rush to do so, but if the right deal is there, you do it.

Andrew Chafin – 3.48 ERA, 2.64 FIP, $6.5MM club option for 2025. The Tigers obviously like Chafin, as they brought him back for a second stint and still have team control through next year if they choose to keep him around. He has a solid track record, and teams are always looking for a lefty. His option year could also entice a suitor. The question here is if the Tigers are planning to pick up his option. I don’t think any offers would be so much that they can’t say no.

Will Vest – 3.19 ERA, 2.93 FIP, FA 2028. Vest continues to be an underrated piece of this bullpen. After posting a 2.55 FIP last season, he’s under 3.00 again this year. If the Tigers want to keep Foley, they could pivot to dangling Vest as the piece with plenty of control and production to get a prospect back.

The Rest of the Tigers’ Options

Here’s the list of mostly underwhelming players of whom a trade is not really going to move the needle. I don’t expect any of these players to bring back a significant prospect, and the chances of them moving at all seem slim.

Mark Canha – Canha has received praise for his clubhouse presence in previous stops, and there’s a non-zero chance a team is willing to just take him off the Tigers roster if Detroit eats some money. Just Baseball’s Ryan Finkelstein even suggests the Mets eating the Canha money in a deal that would pair the veteran with a bullpen arm.

Gio Urshela – The only way I can see Urshela being attractive to another team is as an injury replacement. Someone to fill in and help a team get to the playoffs. His $1.5 million salary should tell you how much interest teams had in him, and his 76 wRC+ likely has not sparked any additional interest.

Spencer Torkelson – I’ll go ahead and say there’s a very low chance of a trade involving Torkelson at the deadline. A trade that includes him would have to be a pretty bizarre combination of things, and I don’t think it’s likely. However, teams are going to be interested in inquiring about him, but I think this is more of an offseason move.

Matt Manning – Plenty of signs point to the Tigers’ lack of enthusiasm with Manning. He’s been passed on the depth chart, and the relationship feels like it’s at a strange point. Maybe he gets moved to the bullpen next year, or he gets moved to a team this deadline in a surprise move. Unlikely, but still a chance.

Conclusion

Whether you believe they can reach this goal or not, the Tigers’ timeline is closer to playoff contention than another full rebuild. They have a good farm system, talent under team control, and a strong rotation. They also need to find starting-caliber players for their lineup and move utility-level guys out of starting positions.

I do not think the time is now to move any of the big “foundation” pieces or trade prospects for proven players, which will likely make this deadline rather uneventful.

The Tigers will have Flaherty, Kelly, Canha, and some relievers coming off the books this offseason, and they should be more aggressive with their spending in free agency. Scott Harris and company hopefully learned their lesson after this past offseason – though we’ll believe it when we see it.

After last year’s trade deadline debacle with Eduardo Rodriguez, regardless of fault, the front office needs to construct a Flaherty deal that instills some optimism in Harris. The next ~365 days are going to tell us a lot about the direction of the franchise and how much fans should believe in the front office. Handling this deadline correctly would be a great start.