Is This Just the Same Old Brewers?

Against all odds, the Milwaukee Brewers continued their trend of regular season dominance in 2024.

They were perhaps baseball’s biggest surprise this season, securing the NL Central for the second consecutive year after many expected them to take a huge step back heading into Opening Day. Instead, despite the heavy organizational turnover in the offseason, they finished with an even better record this year than they had a season ago.

Regular season success is nothing new for the Brewers, however.

Dating back to the beginning of the 2018 season, the Brewers have the sixth-most regular season wins with 580. That trails only some of baseball’s best ball clubs: the Dodgers, Astros, Braves, Yankees, and Rays.

No matter who is leading the charge for Milwaukee, they’ve managed to put together a competitive roster, year in and year out.

The problem, however, is that they’ve failed to translate that regular season dominance into any sort of postseason results.

While this year marks the sixth time in the last seven years that the Brewers will be headed to the playoffs, they’re just 1-9 in their last 10 postseason games.

Knowing that, it’s fair to think twice before completely buying into this team when it feels like we’ve all seen this story before.

Will this be the same old Brewers team that fails to get over the hump in October? Or do they have what it takes to buck their trend of early postseason exits and make a deep postseason run?

More than ever, Milwaukee has something to prove in the coming weeks.

A New Manager Leading The Way

When a team struggles in the playoffs as much as the Brewers have as of late, the pressure to perform can compound. Once a team receives a reputation for falling short in October, then that narrative can bleed over into the clubhouse and impact the performance on the field.

However, the Brewers are in a new era of baseball with Pat Murphy now at the helm.

It’d be unfair to place all of Milwaukee’s recent playoff struggles on the shoulders of former skipper Craig Counsell. When all is said and done, the players need to show up on the biggest stage, and the Brewers simply haven’t played well enough in October to get the job done.

But having a new manager lead them into the playoffs marks a fresh start for a team that needed to shake things up.

Of course, it’s yet to be seen how Murphy will manage in his first postseason as the manager of the Brewers. But what he’s been able to accomplish this season speaks volumes to how well he’s able to lead this team to success and instill confidence in his group of players.

At the risk of stating the obvious, Murphy will be a key piece of the puzzle in ending their postseason skid.

Can the Brewers’ Offense Carry Them?

Milwaukee’s offense has been uninspiring in previous seasons, and that’s been at the heart of their postseason woes. However, it’s been a different story in 2024, and their offense appears to be much more competitive heading into October than it was a season ago.

Last year, the Brewers went into October with the worst team batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, wRC+, and wOBA among NL playoff teams. Their offense simply didn’t have enough firepower to compete, and they didn’t do enough elsewhere to make up for their concerning slugging metrics.

This year, they’ve embraced a new brand of winning games that has made a significant difference to their offensive efficiency and consistency. Most significantly, they’re far more active on the base paths than any other playoff team.

Their 217 steals are nearly 70 more than the next closest NL playoff team (the Phillies at 148). For comparison, the Brewers went into the postseason last year with a total of 129 steals, which was fourth among NL playoff teams.

Additionally, the Brewers have the fourth-best batting average (.248) and the second-best on-base percentage (.326) among the six teams in the NL playoff picture.

Combine their aggressive base running philosophy, their improved contact rates, and their team-wide disciplined approach, and the offense has a much higher floor than it did a season ago.

With that being said, there are still concerns as to whether this team has enough slugging ability to make a deep postseason run.

As a team, the Brewers are slugging .403 to go with an isolated power of .155, which are both the worst marks among the six NL playoff teams. Among those teams, the Brewers also have the fewest homers (177) and the fewest doubles (249).

While they’ve found ways to produce outside of relying upon the long ball, a team needs to slug in order to make it through the postseason. Milwaukee has shown flashes of consistent pop at times this season, but there are still concerns as to whether this offense has a high enough ceiling to make it over the hump.

Lean On The Bullpen

If there is one area on the roster where the Brewers have an advantage over their National League opponents, it’s the bullpen.

Milwaukee’s bullpen enters the postseason with the highest win probability added (14.25), the lowest ERA (3.11), and the lowest batting average against (.218) in the National League.

It’s the strongest part of their game, bar none. Their bullpen is an enormous reason why they’re in the position that they’re in today, and the Brewers should continue to lean into that strength just as they have all season long.

Conversely, it’s no secret how suspect Milwaukee’s rotation is heading into the postseason. And yet, despite the lack of household names, their starters have performed all season long.

However, there’s a great deal of uncertainty as to how that success will translate to a high-intensity playoff series.

Outside of Freddy Peralta, who is the lock to be Milwaukee’s Game 1 starter, it’s unclear who should even be getting the ball in Game 2 of a playoff series.

Our Caleb Moody broke down the potential routes the Brewers could take with their postseason rotation, but there is great risk no matter which direction they choose to go.

Tobias Myers has been the most effective of all the options this season, but it’s yet to be seen if he can be trusted in the postseason. Murphy could go with a more experienced veteran, such as Aaron Civale or Frankie Montas, but neither has pitched well enough to generate a great deal of trust for a playoff game.

No matter how it shakes out, the Brewers will be at a starting pitching disadvantage, no matter who they face throughout the playoffs. That is going to put even more pressure on the bullpen and the offense to perform if they wish to avoid another early postseason exit.

Does This Brewers Team Have What It Takes To Be Different?

There’s no doubt that this Brewers team is different from the ones to come before them. Now, with a new manager leading the way, they’ve embraced their new formula of winning games, and they’ve had a special kind of vibe surrounding the team ever since the beginning of the season.

In order for the Brewers to succeed, they must stick to their identity and play to their strengths.

When the team got away from their disciplined approach this season, their offense faltered because of it. The Brewers are at their best when they are selective at the plate and their hitters trust the guys around them in the lineup to put together quality at-bats.

When they get overly aggressive and get out of their comfort zone, their youth and inexperience at the plate get exposed. But if the Brewers can continue to play their brand of baseball, it’s a very tough lineup to get out, and they’re a very difficult team to beat.

On the pitching side of things, execution will be essential to this team’s success. Guys like Colin Rea, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, and Frankie Montas aren’t going to light up the box score, but if their starters can continue to make the right pitches at the right time and lean on the elite defensive unit behind them to make plays, this team has what it takes to compete.

When they are playing sound, fundamental baseball, we’ve seen just how dominant they can be. At the same time, they’re a young lineup with a starting rotation that has plenty of uncertainty, and that makes them very vulnerable if they run into the wrong matchup.

Perhaps no team in the National League has a wider range of outcomes than the Milwaukee Brewers, and whether or not they can buck their unfortunate trend of early postseason exits will be an early storyline to follow this postseason.