Just Baseball’s Top 10 Pitcher Power Rankings: July 2024
At the season's halfway point, who has cemented their place in Just Baseball's July pitcher power rankings?
Major League Baseball is officially at the All-Star Break. This point of the season is typically referred to as the halfway point, despite it being more than 90 games into the 162-contest slate.
With that, it’s the perfect time to update our pitcher power rankings. All 10 of them are All-Stars, and once the Midsummer Classic passes, they’ll become Cy Young front-runners.
10. Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves
Ranking Last Month: Not Ranked
2024 Stats: 7-3, 1.88 ERA, 3.06 FIP and 2.3 fWAR over 95 2/3 innings pitched
Functioning as a starting pitcher on a full-time basis for the first time since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, López has been one of the best stories in baseball this season. In the first season of a three-year, $30 million deal, he leads all starting pitchers in ERA at 1.88.
While 95 2/3 innings is the lowest amount of any pitcher on the list, it’s already his highest mark since 2019. It will be interesting to see how López holds up as the season goes along.
Even with “only” 95 2/3 innings logged, López still has thrown nearly 30 more frames than NL All-Star starter Paul Skenes. Ultimately, Skenes has a chance to make this list moving forward, but hasn’t pitched quite enough to push López and others off yet.
9. Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies
Ranking Last Month: 1
2024 Stats: 10-4, 2.76 ERA, 3.04 FIP and 2.9 fWAR over 114 innings pitched
A month ago, Suárez seemed like the front-runner to start the All-Star Game for the senior circuit. As it turns out, he won’t pitch in the game as he deals with back spasms and tries to get back on track for what the Phillies hope will be a deep playoff run.
After posting a 1.83 ERA across his first 16 starts of the season, Suárez has really struggled over his last three outings, allowing 15 earned runs. That doesn’t entirely undo what had been a spectacular season leading up to a disappointing trio of starts, but it’s clear Suárez needs a chance to catch his breath at the All-Star Break.
Suárez’s rotation mates Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Aaron Nola are three pitchers who just missed cracking this month’s update of the list.
8. Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
Ranking Last Month: 10
2024 Stats: 6-5, 2.79 ERA, 3.38 FIP and 2.6 fWAR over 132 1/3 innings pitched
Gilbert has been a horse for the Mariners, and it’s a major reason why Seattle leads the AL West at the break, despite having one of the worst offenses in baseball.
Among qualified starters, Gilbert is 10th with a 2.79 ERA, first in WHIP (0.87) and first in innings pitched (132 1/3). Only two other pitchers in baseball have already topped 120 innings pitched, Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals (127) and Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants (124 1/3).
There were quite a few arms who go into the “just missed” category on this list, but near the top of the honorable mentions would be Gilbert’s teammate George Kirby, an All-Star a year ago who currently is second in baseball with a 0.99 BB/9.
7. Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
Ranking Last Month: Not Ranked
2024 Stats: 6-6, 3.16 ERA, 2.67 FIP and 3.4 fWAR over 116 2/3 innings pitched
While Aroldis Chapman did help the Texas Rangers to win a World Series a year ago, that trade brought Ragans back to Kansas City, and looks like a heist by general manager J.J. Picollo.
Ragans is a first-time All-Star, and is in the top 10 among all pitchers in baseball in terms of K/9 (10.88), HR/9 (0.62), FIP (2.67) and fWAR (3.4).
Since his acquisition acquired by the Royals, the left-handed pitcher has a 2.96 ERA across 188 1/3 innings pitched, essentially a season’s worth of starts. What’s crazy is he can’t become a free agent until after the 2028 campaign, so he figures to headline Kansas City’s rotation for the foreseeable future. Even crazier is he isn’t the highest Royal on this month’s list.
6. Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles
Ranking Last Month: 5
2024 Stats: 9-4, 2.43 ERA, 3.37 FIP and 2.6 fWAR over 118 2/3 innings pitched
Burnes is an All-Star for the fourth consecutive year, this time set to represent the Orioles on the AL squad. What he’s done at the top of Baltimore’s rotation this year has been impressive.
Among all starting pitchers, Burnes is sixth in innings pitched (118 2/3) and third in ERA (2.43). He isn’t as much of a strikeout artist as he was when he won the NL Cy Young Award with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021. However, in 2021, Burnes pitched 167 total innings. He’s going to blow by that total in 2024, likely to eclipse 190 innings for the third time in as many years, and that’s before the O’s even get to the postseason.
Certainly, it would generate some good will if new owner David Rubenstein spends to keep Burnes in Baltimore beyond this year. Ultimately, though, big spenders like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will probably be in on Burnes this upcoming offseason, which could very well push the 29-year-old’s price above $300 million.
5. Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
Ranking Last Month: 7
2024 Stats: 11-4, 2.48 ERA, 3.31 FIP and 2.8 fWAR over 127 innings pitched
As noted above, Lugo is second only to Gilbert in innings pitched, as he’s logged 127 to this point. But Lugo — who signed a three-year, $45 million deal with the Royals in free agency this past offseason — has been much more than an innings eater.
The 34-year-old is the league’s top pitcher in both batters faced (513) and ERA+ (174), while being tied with Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez as the only pitchers in the AL with 11 wins this year.
Again, Picollo deserves major credit for acquiring two All-Stars in a matter of six months, both of whom could help the Royals to their first postseason berth since 2015.
4. Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox
Ranking Last Month: 2
2024 Stats: 8-6, 2.54 ERA, 2.68 FIP and 3.4 fWAR over 117 innings pitched
Houck has gone from posting a 5.01 ERA across 21 starts last season to a first-time All-Star and potential building block for the Red Sox.
In terms of AL starters, Houck has the top mark in terms of HR/9 at 0.38, which trails only the aforementioned Sánchez in all of baseball. He’s also fifth in ERA (2.54) and fWAR (3.4) among qualified pitchers.
What’s worth pointing out is Houck has already logged a career-high 117 innings. Knowing that, there will be extra focus on how he pitches down the stretch for a Red Sox team that’s in possession of the final Wild Card spot in the AL right now. If there was a postseason series tomorrow, Houck would almost certainly be manager Alex Cora’s Game 1 starter.
3. Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
Ranking Last Month: Not Ranked
2024 Stats: 6-6, 3.02 ERA, 2.36 FIP and 3.9 fWAR over 107 1/3 innings pitched
Crochet has been talked about so much as a trade candidate that it’s almost done a disservice to how solid of a pitcher he’s been for an otherwise pitiful White Sox team.
The former first-round pick leads AL starters with a 2.36 FIP, while his 150 strikeouts and 3.9 fWAR are both the best marks in baseball. A possible trade to the NL and certain management of the Tommy John veteran’s innings will probably stifle a possible Cy Young candidacy, but if the award were being given out for just the first half, Crochet would have a case.
Even if there are questions about whether he’ll have to pitch out of the bullpen down the stretch because of a possible innings limit, Crochet is controllable through the 2026 season, so he’s probably the No. 1 pitcher who will be traded this summer.
2. Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Ranking Last Month: 8
2024 Stats: 13-3, 2.70 ERA, 2.24 FIP and 3.7 fWAR over 110 innings pitched
If not for the fact that he pitched on the final day of the first half, Sale may have started the All-Star Game for the fourth time in his career. Nonetheless, he’s healthy for the first time since 2019, and has reignited the debate about a future Hall of Fame case with a dominant first half in Atlanta.
Now an eight-time All-Star, Sale leads all qualified starters in FIP (2.24) and wins (13), while trailing only Crochet in strikeout-to-walk ratio (26.9%) and fWAR (3.7).
The question with Sale has always been health. If he holds up, he may not only win NL Comeback Player of the Year, but the Cy Young Award that’s really the only thing missing from his resume. Plus, he would be a scary postseason matchup for teams like the Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers who are reliant on production from left-handed sluggers.
1. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Ranking Last Month: 4
2024 Stats: 10-3, 2.41 ERA, 2.57 FIP and 3.5 fWAR over 116 innings pitched
Like with Sale, health was the biggest question with Skubal. He was arguably baseball’s best pitcher after Fourth of July last year, and that’s carried into 2024.
Skubal’s 2.41 ERA is second among all starters, and he’s in the top five in a slew of other key categories, such as BB/9 (1.63), WHIP (0.88), FIP (2.57) and fWAR (3.5).
The last Tigers pitcher to win AL Cy Young was Max Scherzer in 2013. Barring an injury or what would be a rather shocking decision in terms of listening to trade offers on him, Skubal might change that this year.