Early Trends That Could Influence the 2025 Trade Deadline

It’s true that no Major League Baseball team has even played 30 games yet in the 2025 season. It’s also true that it’s never too early to look ahead to the trade deadline.

This year, the deadline for teams to make trades is at 6pm (ET) on Thursday, July 31. There are already a handful of teams without any hope for the playoffs that have some trade chips they could dangle in talks like the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Miami Marlins.

On the flip side, a lot of teams with eyes on contention (looking at you, Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles!) have fallen flat to open the year. That doesn’t mean they’re going to tear it down, but rather that they’re going to aggressively buy at this year’s deadline.

While we’ll have (a ton) more coverage and previews on the deadline coming up over the next few months here, today I’m here to check out some early-season trends that could influence the happenings once the hot stove heats up and the rumors start to fly.

Stats taken prior to games on Friday, April 25

The Twins and Orioles Need Help Against Lefties

Nobody could’ve predicted the Orioles would struggle to the extent they have so far this year, but their 10-14 record through 24 games is nowhere close to a lock to last. The O’s are built to contend through and through, and it’s only a matter of time before they begin to heat up.

The same can’t exactly be said for the Twins, who are 9-16 and have the raw talent to put together a run but they’re not a proven commodity.

Both of these teams are having troubles regularly getting into the win column, but above all, their offense have been eyesores. So much of that falls in their complete inability to hit left-handed pitching.

As of right now, the Twins and Orioles are somewhere between 28th and 30th in baseball against left-handed pitching in AVG, OBP, SLG, and fwAR. Twins batters have also struck out in nearly 33% of their plate appearances against southpaws.

Speculatively speaking, the likes of Nolan Arenado, Tommy Pham, Luis Robert Jr., and Josh Bell could all be available at the deadline and each of them have shown promise against LHP in the past.

Also, don’t sleep on that Eric Wagaman character down in Miami. He’s got a pair of home runs and an .820 OPS against left-handers in a 36-AB sample size so far this year. The Marlins would be wise to unload anybody who is remotely valuable this summer.

Bullpen Help Is a Necessity for the Phillies

The Twins and Orioles are both playoff hopefuls, as are the Phillies. The club is 13-12 and five games behind the Mets for the lead in the NL East. As a whole, things are going fine for the Phillies, but their bullpen has been … not great.

In fact, Phillies relievers have blown seven saves already, which leads the major leagues. Their ‘pen is also 28th in innings pitched, which is more due to the fact that they’re completely untrustworthy more than anything else.

Just to pile on a bit further, Phillies relievers are also 22nd in the league in strand rate, 29th in ERA, and 23rd in FIP. Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm have stayed consistent, but Jordan Romano is borderline unplayable right now and Orion Kerkering also has both an ERA and BB/9 north of 6.00.

Again, it’s too early to nail anything definitive down as far as who’s even going to be available at this year’s deadline, but someone like Ryan Helsley would be a solid fit at the back-end of the Phillies’ bullpen. On that topic, can someone please sign David Robertson?!

Stars With Cratering Trade Value

There are two trade chips that stand out above the rest ahead of this year’s trade deadline: one position player and one pitcher. Luis Robert Jr. and Sandy Alcantara. Both are on teams in the midst of multi-year rebuilds and both have high trade values.

The only problem with that is that both of them are struggling to kick off the new year, which doesn’t bode well for said value.

Robert, 27, has been great when healthy over the years, but he’s ran into issues with his durability. He debuted in 2020 and has played more than 100 games in a season just one time. To kick off 2025, he’s hitting just .138 with a .255 OBP and .493 OPS. He’s looked like a shell of himself nearly every time he’s come up to the plate, which isn’t exactly going to send his trade value through the roof.

Still, Robert was an All-Star two years ago and he’s got the potential to get back there. He’s got the White Sox sitting pretty when it comes to this year’s deadline, but the more he struggles, the more the prospect package shrinks.

Alcantara, 29, is a former Cy Young Award winner, which automatically boosts his value. He’s also been recently slowed down by injuries, and is in the midst of a comeback from a Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 entirely.

Through five starts, the right-hander has a 6.56 ERA, 4.78 FIP and 67 ERA+ through 23.1 innings of work. He’s also striking out just 6.6 batters per nine (the lowest rate of his career) and is walking 4.6 batters per nine, which is the highest that number’s been since 2018. He’s looked a little too human this year, but should still net the Marlins a haul at the deadline.

The Royals Desperately Need an Outfielder

It’s anyone’s guess which team will ultimately emerge victorious over in the AL Central, but the Royals have had a hard time getting going to open the year. At 12-14, they’re still just three-and-a-half games out of the top spot, but their -16 run differential and dreadful outfield isn’t doing them any favors.

Seeing the Royals function as aggressive buyers at the deadline will feel weird, since they’re not usually the type of organization to go out and make a massive splash, but they may need to do so this year if they’d like to prove their latest contention window’s legitimacy.

Last year, the club sent MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, and Hunter Renfroe to the field as their everyday outfield and the group combined to post a 78 wRC+, good for 29th in the game. So naturally, the Royals’ decision makers decided to run it back for another year, and the results have been the exact same.

With a 61 wRC+ and -1.0 fWAR, the Royals have a horrible outfield with very little in the way of internal reinforcements coming, and Melendez has already been optioned to Triple-A. This means they’re going to have to get bold at this year’s trade deadline if there’s going to be any hope for a turnaround. Three black holes in the starting lineup isn’t going to cut it.

Starting Pitching Needed Down in Atlanta

Nobody could’ve seen the Braves opening the year with a 10-14 record coming. The fact that they’re in last place (underneath the Marlins and Nationals) in the standings is pretty jarring, but there’s no shot this continues for long. This Atlanta offense, even without Ronald Acuna Jr., is due for a bounce-back.

However, the pitching side of things is a different story. Spencer Strider is back on the injured list after making just one start, and Chris Sale is starting to show his age to a concerning extent. The Braves have a ton of starting pitching depth down in the minor leagues, but there’s also going to end up being some quality options available on the trade market if they choose to go that route.

Chief among them, at least to this point, is left-hander Andrew Heaney, who’s on an expiring contract while suiting up for the last-place Pirates. The 34-year-old has been a decent innings eater over the past few years, but he’s elevated his game in 2025. Through five starts, he’s sporting a 1.72 ERA, 2.22 FIP and an MLB-leading 0.77 WHIP. He’s not going to cost the farm, but the Braves may need to pony up and bring him in before they fall too far in the standings.

Power Outage on the Blue Jays

To put it simply, the Blue Jays have a decent starting lineup but there’s far too much pressure on the trio of Bo Bichette, Anthony Santander, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to prop the team up with home runs. To this point, this group has a combined three home runs and the team as a whole sits 29th in the game with 13 home runs.

For a team with eyes on a postseason spot come season’s end, this is not going to fly. The lineup is built with expectations that their big boppers will hold the rest of the team up, but that hasn’t been the case to this point and it’s a real issue.

The Blue Jays are another team that’s going to need to get bold at the trade deadline. They proved that they have deep pockets by locking up Guerrero for life, but they need to continue to show they mean business by landing a big bat (or even two!) at the deadline.

Closing Thoughts

Trends around the league are starting to slowly emerge as we near the end of the first month of the season. This year’s trade deadline is going to be an interesting one (they always are, really) with so many teams seemingly a piece or two away from contention.

Of course, we only touched on a fraction of the early storylines to follow as the deadline inches closer. We’re still months away, but it’s hard to ignore when needs are already becoming apparent just 24~ games into the new year.