Nathan Eovaldi Will Hold Great Value on the Market, Now or in the Winter

When the Texas Rangers signed Nathan Eovaldi ahead of the 2023 MLB season, the output he’s given them is probably the best case they could have asked for.

Eovaldi has definitely lived up to his end of his two-year $34 million contract.

In 2023 Eovaldi put up a respectable 3.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a 2.5 fWAR across 144 innings in 25 starts, and played a significant role in the Rangers’ run to capturing their first World Series in franchise history.

And in 2024 the 34-year-old has been even better through his first 15 starts. Across 87 innings, Eovaldi has posted a 3.10 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and an fWAR of 1.4.

He has been the calming and consistent veteran presence that the Rangers have needed in their rotation this year, a rotation that has battled injury and currently sits 19th in the league in pitcher fWAR, according to Fangraphs.

Looking forward, Eovaldi’s status this offseason looks a bit more complicated than it actually is given the vesting option in his contract.

If Eovaldi is able to pitch to a combined total of 300 innings between last season and this season, he would have a $20 million player option for the 2025 season. If he doesn’t eclipse that 300 inning threshold, he would simply be an unrestricted free agent.

That being said, at his age, the performance he’s been able to put up during the span of this contract in Texas, and the fact he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery twice in his career, even if he were to pitch enough to earn that player option, he’ll likely decline it to become a UFA and test the market.

And given the fact that Texas still sit seven games out of top spot in the AL West and 7.5 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot, it’s feasible that Eovaldi could be a dealt by the Rangers, should they choose to be sellers.

This would make Eovaldi a coveted asset across the league even before he hits free agency, with the July 30 trade deadline looming.

All standings and statistics referenced in this article are from prior the July 12 games.

Eovaldi’s Value on the Trade Market

You can never have too much pitching, no matter how good you are.

And given how many teams are “good” this season, there will be no shortage of suitors looking to make it worth the Rangers’ while to trade away a veteran starter with multiple successful World Series runs under his belt.

The National League looks particularly interesting in terms of teams that could be buying to at least some degree this deadline as eight teams all sit within four games of each other in the hunt for the final two NL Wild Card spots.

And plenty of them currently sit in the lower half of the major leagues in starter fWAR as a team this season.

There are also plenty of what appear to be established postseason teams, or teams trending in that direction in the case of the Houston Astros, who also rank in the lower half in starting pitcher fWAR as a team that could benefit from the poised veteran presence of Eovaldi.

Then there are teams who’ve had success in their starting rotations but have seen various injuries throughout the year where they can be bolstered with a more seasoned veteran arm, such as the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox.

Given the likelihood that no matter how many innings Eovaldi pitches in 2024 he’ll become a free agent, every buying team at this deadline should be monitoring the two-time World Series champion as rental. But he’s a damn good one at that.

Eovaldi’s Value Come Free Agency

With Eovaldi likely headed for the open market in the 2024-25 off-season, just like the trade market this season, there should be no shortage of teams calling the World Series champ and his agent to try and work something out.

When Eovaldi signed his two-year deal with Texas in the 2022-23 off-season, he was coming of a year with the Red Sox in which he threw 109.1 innings across 20 starts with a 3.87 ERA. The year prior, in 2021 was much better, as Eovaldi threw 182.1 innings across 32 starts for Boston with a career best 5.7 fWAR.

Now Eovaldi didn’t post 5.7 fWAR last season with Texas and nor will he likely come close to that this season, but with how solid and consistent he’s been for Texas, a two-year $34 million deal like his last one doesn’t seem out of the question.

And given his past injury history and age, a two-year deal definitely gives him some financial security heading into his late 30s, much more than his $20 million player option would.

Eovaldi’s skill set and recent track record place him in a interesting sport when compared to other starting pitchers who are on, or could be on, the free agent market by seasons end.

While Eovaldi may not be in the same top tier of free agent starting options like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, or Blake Snell (should decline his option with a strong finish), he would likely fall in a tier just below that given he’s on track for five consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons.

So a short term deal like the one he has now should be manageable for any contending team.

An interesting example of teams that could be interested in Eovaldi are current postseason caliber teams like the Minnesota Twins or the San Diego Padres, who were both notably effected by the Bally Sports bankruptcy saga this past off-season.

Teams like these two could be all over the opportunity to not break the bank over a long period of time, like the top-tier arms will command on the open market.

Instead they can rely on the steady presence that Eovaldi has brought consistently in the past for a price and term that wouldn’t require serious crunching of the books to be done with uncertainty in future TV revenues.

Another example of type of suitor that could be after Eovaldi come free agency is a team like the San Francisco Giants, to pair alongside their ace Logan Webb and young developing major league arm Kyle Harrison.

The Giants have swung for the fences in recent free agency periods, going after names like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Carlos Correa, but ultimately falling short each time.

Eovaldi would provide them with the type of consistency to put the Giants on the right track to climb out of the bottom half of league in starting pitching metrics, while simultaneously not entering the seemingly always complex free agent negotiations with mega stars.

Eovaldi and His Value to the Rangers

With all this talk of where Eovaldi could be going in the next few weeks and in the upcoming off-season, it’s important to not forget that the Rangers are still an option for him, both for the rest of this season and beyond.

Despite Texas sitting seven games back of their division and 7.5 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot, they are still the reigning champs and have been in good form of late, winning seven of their last 10 ball games.

Given last year’s success and their recent hot stretch, would anyone be utterly shocked if they decided to stand pat and attempt a miraculous postseason run down the stretch here in 2024?

And in terms of the off-season, given the large financial commitments the Rangers have to players like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jacob deGrom, a similar contract to the one he last received might make a lot of sense for the Rangers.

It would especially make sense given that the Rangers, like the Twins and the Padres, were also affected by the cuts in broadcasting in regard to Bally Sports, meaning some revenue streams still aren’t guaranteed for them beyond 2024. So short terms deals make balancing the books a lot easier for the Rangers.

And Texas could also be losing a key veteran piece to their rotation in Max Scherzer, who will become a UFA at the end of the season.

This makes holding on to the younger veteran presence of Eovaldi that much more valuable to Texas, as they’ll look to likely get back to their 2023 form in 2025.

A lot could change in the coming weeks and months for Eovaldi. But as it stands right now, it certainly won’t be for the wrong reasons, as Eovaldi’s solid performances and winning pedigree should make him one of the more sought commodities in the near future.