The Rays Made Good on a Seller’s Market This Deadline

The Tampa Bay Rays executed the trade deadline in typical Rays fashion. They unloaded players who were going to become significantly more expensive. They did that while also adding some young major league talent.

On the day of the trade deadline, the Rays were three and a half games back of the Royals for the final Wild Card spot. They had a difficult decision to make: Should they push for a Wild Card spot or make deals to set themselves up for next season?

Ultimately, while they did make moves that prioritized the future, the Rays did not entirely take themselves out of Wild Card contention.

While the Rays are now 4.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot, they have an outside shot at the postseason with a strong final two months. FanGraphs currently gives the Rays 7.4% odds of making the playoffs. Those are slim odds, but Tampa Bay still has a chance.

Let’s dive into what the Rays did at the deadline and what it all means for the rest of this season and beyond.

Rays Trade Deadline: Moves Made

Here is a look at every move the Rays made at the deadline:

• OF Randy Arozarena traded from Tampa Bay to the Seattle Mariners for RHP Brody Hopkins, OF Aidan Smith, and a Player to be Named Later

• RHP Zach Eflin traded from Tampa Bay to the Baltimore Orioles for RHP Jackson Baumeister, OF Matthew Etzel, and UTL Mac Horvath

• Tampa sends Cash to the New York Mets for RHP Cole Sulser

• 3B Isaac Paredes traded from Tampa Bay to the Chicago Cubs for 3B Christopher Morel, RHP Hunter Bigge, and RHP Ty Johnson

• RHP Jason Adam traded from Tampa Bay to the San Diego Padres for RHP Dylan Lesko, OF Homer Bush Jr., and C J.D. Gonzalez

• SS Amed Rosario traded from Tampa Bay to the Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Michael Flynn

• RHP Tyler Zuber traded from Tampa Bay to the New York Mets for RHP Paul Gervase

• RHP Shawn Armstrong traded from Tampa Bay to the St. Louis Cardinals for CF Dylan Carlson

As you can see, the Rays were very active, making eight moves in total leading up to the deadline. They not only targeted prospects but young major league players with potential as well.

Moving Money

Coming into this season, the Tampa Bay Rays had the 29th-highest payroll at just over $81.5M. By moving players at this deadline, they were able to lower their payroll commitments for 2025 to just $46.7M.

We all know the Rays to be very strategic in how they spend money. They do not hand out large contracts very often and look to keep the payroll down while also staying competitive.

In their first move of the deadline, the Rays moved off of Randy Arozarena. Arozarena signed a one-year, $8.1M deal this offseason to avoid arbitration. With two years of arbitration left, he is set to make over $10M in each of those seasons. It is not out of character for the Rays to move off of players like this.

Next was Eflin, who is set to make $18M next season. After making just $11M in each of the past two seasons, Eflin will see a $7M increase next year. The Rays will avoid paying Eflin that raise by sending him to Baltimore.

Parades was still not particularly expensive in his first year of arbitration, but the Rays switched him out for a player (Morel) who will not hit arbitration for another season.

Overall, the Rays were able to move off quite a bit of payroll. In the process, they also added a number of solid prospects to bolster an already good system.

Prospects Coming In

If you want a truly in-depth discussion about the prospects the Rays acquired, I highly suggest listening to The Call Up podcast. Here is a quick synopsis of the notable prospects.

Minor league stats from August 5.

Brody Hopkins & Aidan Smith (Randy Arozarena Package)

Brody Hopkins comes over to the Rays from Seattle. He was primarily a hitter in college, but after just 57 collegiate innings, the Mariners committed to him as a pitcher. This was for good reason, as he has a 2.90 ERA in 83.2 innings with 95 strikeouts in Single-A.

Hopkins is a poster child for: “Do not judge trade packages by current prospect rankings.”

Our Aram Leighton had Hopkins on the outside of the Mariners’ top 15 early this season, with this to say:

The younger brother of TJ Hopkins, Brody was a hitter-primary at College of Charleston before transferring to Winthrop for his draft year.

In 2023, Hopkins had a .906 OPS in 160 at-bats while punching out 66 in 54.0 IP on the hill. However, significant command issues caused him to fall to Seattle in the sixth round last year, and the Mariners shut him down after he put pen to paper.

This year in Modesto, Hopkins is showing a decent feel on the mound, allowing 8 ER and punching out 23 in 17.2 IP to this point with opponents hitting a measly .182 against him. He’s so early in his maturation process as a pitcher, but his mid 90s fastball and low 80s slider could give him a bullpen-caliber pitch mix.

Since this was written, Hopkins has continued to find success in Low-A. He has since thrown 70 innings with a 2.57 ERA and 78 strikeouts. Those numbers also include his first High-A start in the Rays system, in which he tossed four innings of one-run ball with six punch outs.

Aidan Smith also came over in the deal for Arozarena. He just turned 20 years old and has performed well in Low-A.

Aram also had Smith just on the outside of the Mariners top 15. He has posted a 135 wRC+ this season while playing all three outfield spots. He will be a nice addition to the Rays’ system.

Zach Eflin Package

Unlike the Arozarena deal, the Eflin package included a pair of top-15 prospects in a system. Jackson Baumeister and Mac Horvath were top-15 Orioles prospects – and likely top-10 prospects in an average farm system.

Baumeister, to me, is the crown jewel of this package. He is a six-foot-four right-hander with two plus pitches having a great season in High-A.

His fastball and curveball are his calling cards. Finding confidence in a third pitch will be a focal point of his development with the Rays. He will also need to dial in his command as walks have been an issue.

So far this season, Baumeister has a 2.97 ERA in 72.2 innings with 95 strikeouts. He currently has a 2026 ETA, which will be his age-23 season. He could slot into what will then be an already-loaded Rays rotation.

Horvath is also a nice pickup for this system. He is a good athlete who can play passable defense at second, third, and all three outfield spots. He has a 112 wRC+ this season in High-A along with 26 steals while only being caught once.

The hit tool needs work, but if it doesn’t progress, Horvath’s defensive versatility and average power will make him a valuable utility player.

The last piece from this trade is outfielder Matthew Etzel. He was a throw-in but has a 122 wRC+ across High-A and Double-A this season. He could become something, or he could just end up being a minor league depth piece.

Jason Adam Package

Similar to the Eflin deal, the Rays got a great haul from the Padres for reliever Jason Adam.

First, they added a stud in Dylan Lesko. Lesko is just 20 years old and has a lot of room to grow. With a mid-90s fastball that generates a lot of whiff, as well as a strong changeup, he could be really special.

The issue is a lack of command. Lesko is walking 6.75 hitters per nine so far this season in High-A.

Still, the Rays have added another really good pitching prospect into the fold that they can work with. Lesko has a high ceiling if the Rays can work with him on his command and potentially help him develop a third pitch/improve his curveball. He could be a frontline starter if everything clicks.

Next, Homer Bush Jr. comes over. Bush is almost the opposite of Horvath in the batter’s box. He has a good feel to hit, but a lack of power could limit his ceiling. One thing that those two have in common, however, is their speed. Bush has racked up 44 stolen bases so far this season.

If Bush wants to maximize his potential, he is going to have to be able to find the gaps and hit a lot of doubles. He could ultimately end up being a fourth outfielder in the majors, but he should be a good defender in center with the potential to be a leadoff hitter in the bigs if everything goes right.

With all of these packages, the Rays did an excellent job of adding quality pieces to their system. They may not have added a top-50 prospect in baseball, but they added a lot of high-probability major leaguers.

An already strong farm system just got even stronger and has an argument to be the top system in baseball.

The Tampa Bay Rays in 2024 and Beyond

As stated earlier, the Rays did not just add prospects. They also added young major league talent that could help this team win next season.

They added Dylan Carlson in exchange for a 33-year-old reliever who is a free agent at the end of the season.

Carlson is still just 25 years old, and while this season and last season have not been ideal, there is still something there. The Rays were able to turn Jose Siri and his flaws into a productive big leaguer. Who is to say they can’t do the same with Carlson?

Another major leaguer they added is Christopher Morel. Morel is also just 25 years old, and he has shown what he is capable of as recently as last year. With a 119 wRC+ and 26 home runs, he looked to be a promising young player.

This year has been a step back for Morel, but he certainly has potential.

Next Season

From 2019-23, the Rays made the playoffs every year, went to one World Series, and won the AL East twice.

The playoffs do not look to be in the cards for them this season (never say never), but they could very well be back next year. Here is what the Rays could look like next season:

Now, the lineup still leaves something to be desired. One through six are solid, but the bottom of the order is not great.

Some notes on how this lineup could still be shaken up: First, Brandon Lowe has a club option that the Rays could decline in the offseason. That likely pushes Curtis Mead into the starting lineup.

Tampa Bay also has prospects Carson Williams and Xavier Isaac who could contribute next season.

Adding Morel and Carlson gives the Rays two potential starters for next season. The Rays were also able to build organizational depth. If Junior Caminero, Williams, and Isaac come up next year, there are others to take their place in the system.

That rotation will also have an argument for the best in the league next season – and that’s without including names like Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell. Baumeister, Hopkins, and Lesko may not make an impact next season, but they will fill in this rotation down the road.

Rays Trade Deadline: Final Thoughts

This was an excellent deadline by the Rays. The 2024 trade market largely favored teams that were selling as opposed to buying. A lot of the time, teams that are within a couple of games of a playoff spot struggle to make a decision at the deadline. They teeter-totter between deciding to buy or sell.

The Rays did no such thing, they decided to sell and did so in a manner that did not completely dismantle their team. Yandy Díaz still has two more years of control. He had numerous suitors at the deadline, but the Rays still value him on this roster.

When you look at the teams that had great deadlines, it is hard to find one that did better than the Rays. The Miami Marlins are the only team that could make an argument. If you are a Rays fan, you have to be happy with how this deadline went.