Do the Rockies Still See Nolan Jones as a Core Piece?

What a difference a year makes.

In 2023, Colorado Rockies outfielder Nolan Jones was a rising star. The rookie joined the 20/20 club and finished the season slashing .297/.389/.542 (137 wRC+). And that was just his offense. Defensively, although he was still learning to play the outfield, he was making stellar catches and showing off a cannon-like arm, finishing the season with nine DRS in left field.

He ended September as the NL Player of the Week and placed fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting after the season.

Jones’ future looked bright, and as he told fans at RockiesFest back in January, he had trained hard during the offseason and was prepared to pick up where he’d left off in September.

“I’m in a good spot,” Jones said. “Again, there’s going to be slip-ups. But I think that going into this offseason, my plan was to be the best outfielder I can be. That’s something I’ve attacked every day, and I’m stronger and faster than I was last year.”

Alas, baseball is a fickle sport that had other things in mind.

A notoriously slow starter, no one was terribly concerned when Jones struggled during spring training. Then the injuries set in. Early on, he missed 41 games due to a low-back strain followed by a sprained knee. His comeback did not last long. Jones went back on the IL on July 12 as his back injury resurfaced, and he missed 30 additional games.

Making things worse, his offensive numbers have not been promising.

In the 51 games he has played this season, Jones has slashed .200/.305/.306 (61 wRC+). His power has mostly been missing — he’s hit only three home runs — and his 33.3% strikeout rate is significantly worse than his 2023 rate of 29.7%. Moreover, Jones’ ability to hit in clutch situations has seemed largely gone.

It has been an agonizing time for the young outfielder.

As Jones told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, “I didn’t know how long it was going to take to get back, and I didn’t know if I was going to play again this year…There was a lot I was going through.”

He made it clear: “This year isn’t what I wanted or what I expected it to be.”

Last year, the answer seemed clear: As the Rockies approached their window of contention, their outfield would consist of Jones, Brenton Doyle, and the best of the talented prospects in the Rockies farm system. This year, however, that future seems less certain.

Is Nolan Jones the gifted power hitter the Rockies saw in 2023, or is he subject to lingering injuries that will make him unreliable?

The Next Six Weeks Will Be Crucial for Nolan Jones and the Rockies

Jones returned to the Rockies roster last week, and the next six weeks will be crucial for both Jones and the Rockies as they try to assess where they are.

A strong September will reassure the Rockies that they’ve found their left fielder of the future and a source of much-needed offensive power. A less-impressive September will probably have the team looking more closely at the farm system to find Jones’ replacement.

To be clear, that’s not a move the Rockies want to make — they like his athleticism as well as his clubhouse presence — but younger players will be knocking on the doors of Coors Field for a chance to play Jones’ position.

Already, Jordan Beck is trying to acclimate to MLB pitching. Waiting in Albuquerque are Greg Jones and Yanquiel Fernandez; in Hartford are former first-rounders Zac Veen and Benny Montgomery as well as Sterlin Thompson; and in the lower levels wait Robert Calaz, Jared Thomas, and Cole Carrigg.

Don’t forget 2024 first-round draft pick Charlie Condon, who is expected to move through the system quickly and may play either third base or the outfield.

The Rockies hope that Jones returns to his 2023 self, but if he does not, at least they have options.

Stats updated prior to games on Friday, August 23.