Roki Sasaki Sweepstakes Leaves Three Landing Spots

One of the biggest storylines of the MLB offseason could soon be coming to a conclusion, as new developments have surfaced in the Roki Sasaki saga.

According to MLB insider Jeff Passan, the Japanese phenom has limited his list of suitors down to three finalists: the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Diego Padres and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Sasaki was posted on Dec. 15, meaning his 45-day signing window ends on Jan. 23, and in that same report Passan indicates a decision will be made by Sasaki and his team by that deadline.

So, in a roughly a week-and-a-half, we’ll know which MLB organization the 23-year-old will commit the next six years of his professional career to. In fact, Sasaki can sign as soon as Wednesday, when the International Free Agent window begins for 2025.

Sasaki has been able to carve out an incredible career in NPB at such a young age, as in four seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines he’s made two All-Star appearances, while posting a career 2.10 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP with 505 strikeouts across 394.2 innings on the mound.

This means Sasaki is more than just your typical minor league free agent, as in all likelihood he’ll make an impact at the major league level on day one for whatever organization he chooses.

However, with all the success he’s had overseas, there are some definite challenges that face him such as making the jump state-side at such a young age, as well as the shoulder ailment he faced last season.

This means that there is certainly more of a focus on the developmental side of things with him than when Yoshinobu Yamamoto made the jump from NPB to MLB last year.

So with all this in mind, now that we know who the final three suitors are for Sasaki, let’s break down how Sasaki fits into their plans, as well as what they as organization can do for Sasaki and his career.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have seemed like the frontrunner for Sasaki all winter, so it’s no surprise to see them in the group of finalists vying for the young talent.

What Sasaki Would Bring to Los Angeles

Out of the three finalists here, the Dodgers are probably the team that requires Sasaki’s services the least with the great starting pitching depth they already have at their disposal.

However, of L.A.’s current six-man group of undeniable major league starting pitchers, Blake Snell is the only one who doesn’t seem to have immense injury questions looming over him in 2025.

Before the 134 innings he threw 2024, Tyler Glasnow faced immense injury woes post-COVID, only appearing in 94.2 innings in 2021 and 2022 combined.

Even in the last two years, despite making 20 or more starts and appearing in 120.0 innings or more, Glasnow has still faced notable time on the IL each season, including not pitching beyond Aug. 11 the 2024 campaign.

In his inaugural season in MLB in 2024, Yamamoto only managed to throw 90.0 innings after missing nearly three months on the IL.

All the while, Shohei Ohtani, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin didn’t manage to take the mound themselves last season as they each recovered from their respective Tommy John surgeries.

It’s easy to see the importance of depth in a rotation with so many injury concerns.

Last year, if not for a resurgent performance by Walker Buehler in October, the Dodgers might not have had enough pitching to win the World Series. And even still, they did so on the back of their bullpen and a three-man rotation of Yamamoto, Buehler, and now free agent Jack Flaherty.

With names like Ohtani, Snell, Glasnow and Yamamoto, the Dodgers have a trend of throwing out some of the best arms in baseball on a nightly basis. Sasaki would just add another iron in the fire.

He has a great pitch mix which our Aram Leighton describes as being headlined by a “devasting mix of a high-velocity fastball…with a nasty splitter.”

This has resulted in three straight NPB seasons of K/9 rates in the double-digits, including rates above 12.0 in the last seasons he was at full strength (2022 and 2023).

Like any player making the jump from NPB to MLB, there will inevitably be some growing pains, but what Sasaki has shown up to this point in his pro-career indicates that he has the potential be exactly the type of world-class arm Los Angeles target for their rotation.

What the Dodgers Can Offer Sasaki

The fact that Sasaki is a minor league free agent, means that every team mathematically had an equal shot at him in free agency.

This eliminated one of the key pulling factors L.A. has been able to have with free agents over the years: their seemingly bottomless pockets.

However, if you put money aside, as well as the obvious fact that they are the reigning World Series Champions, the Dodgers still have plenty offer Sasaki in his development.

By all accounts the Dodgers are the gold-standard in how they treat their players at every level. So even if they feel Sasaki needs a bit of run in the minors early in 2025, similar to what the Pirates did with Paul Skenes in 2024, he wouldn’t feel like he’s flying under the radar with top-notch amenities at his disposal regardless of what level he’s at.

Given the recent injury history the Dodgers have had to work through, there’s no reason to believe they can’t get the most out of an arm like Sasaki, who’s coming off a recent injury issues himself.

Despite going down at the end of the season, Glasnow posted a career-high innings total in his first year as Dodger, resulting in his first career All-Star selection.

Yamamoto is another prime example of the Dodgers’ elite pitching system, as after his lengthy IL stint he was able to not only come back but look better than ever in their World Series run last season.

We’ve discussed how the Dodgers have so many capable starters in the mix already and would only stand to improve with the signing of Sasaki. While this is certainly a benefit for the Dodgers, it’s also a big benefit for Sasaki as well.

Los Angeles will likely sport a six-man rotation in order to protect the many injury-prone arms in their staff.

This means that an arm like Sasaki would have the protection around him to not overwork himself in year one in MLB after his shoulder ailment in 2024.

On top of that, a larger rotation would help ease a young international arm like Sasaki into the swing of things as he adjusts himself and grows into the MLB game.

Lastly, although geography doesn’t seem to be a huge sticking point with his agent Jim Wolfe saying smaller mid-market teams could be in play as well, we can’t completely discount the pulling power the west coast powerhouse of Los Angeles can have on a Japanese player.

The Dodgers have already established a strong presence in the Asian baseball market with Japanese stars like Ohtani and Yamamoto currently playing big roles at the club.

If Sasaki is to make a large portion of his money in off-the-field endorsements to start his career, playing alongside Ohtani and Yamamoto could be the quickest path to those deals.

San Diego Padres

Once it was revealed Sasaki’s market would expand beyond the usual heavy-hitting suspects and include smaller mid-market organizations, the Padres immediately became a team that many seemed to gravitate towards as a potential fit.

What Sasaki Would Bring to San Diego

Unlike the Dodgers, the Padres don’t have the luxury of a sporting a star-studded six-man rotation in 2025. They feature a formidable top three in Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish, before the quality falls off with the likes of Randy Vásquez and Matt Waldron leading the charge to fill out the final two spots in the starting staff.

It also has to be noted that Cease could be on move as he looks to be on the trade block this winter as San Diego seems poised to cut payroll ahead of the 2025 season.

Being a minor league free agent, Sasaki would be on the league minimum until he hits arbitration, making him an ideal candidate to replace Cease in the rotation from both a financial and competitive standpoint.

Replacing a proven MLB commodity like Cease may be asking too much of Sasaki in 2025. But it would make his loss easier to stomach. And Sasaki certainly has the potential to to be as good, maybe even better, than Cease in the future.

Sasaki’s high strikeout rates would also be a way to replace some of the swing-and-miss capabilities that they’d lose if they were to deal Cease, giving the Padres a better shot to remain in the top 10 in the league (6th) in starter K-rates.

What the Padres Can Offer Sasaki

There’s a few reasons as to why the Padres could be the ideal MLB landing spot for Sasaki.

Like we saw with the Dodgers, San Diego has a track record in getting the most out of their arms in recent years.

Cease bounced back from a mid-4.00s ERA season in 2023 to put up season where he finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2024.

In his first full season as a starter, King had a breakout sub-3.00 ERA campaign last season.

Blake Snell was able to improve in each of his three seasons as a Padre (2021-23), eventually leading to an NL Cy Young award in 2023.

Also, out of the three finalists, the Padres are the smaller market compared to two globally recognizable cities in Los Angeles and Toronto.

After his agent indicated in December, the Japanese media have been somewhat harsh towards him wanting to leave NPB so early, going to a place that’s not a North American powerhouse city like Los Angeles and to a lesser extent Toronto, could be a major swaying point in favor of the Padres.

His relationship with Yu Darvish, according to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, can’t be ignored either, as it’s reported the two are close.

Between Darvish and fellow countryman Yuki Matsui, the Padres already have a start on this greater influence in the Asian baseball market, which has to be worth something even if proximity to Japan is not a dealbreaker to Sasaki and his team.

Also, you have to think that being a foil to Ohtani and Yamamoto in the Padres-Dodgers rivalry could bode well for future endorsements as well.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Dodgers and the Padres have been two of Sasaki’s frontrunners all winter, but like it’s been the past two seasons, the Blue Jays once again find themselves as a finalist for a top-end free agent.

What Sasaki Would Bring to Toronto

Toronto possesses a fairly established foundation in their rotation already, led by the likes of Kevin Gausman and José Berríos, with Bowden Francis, fresh of a breakout 2024 season, and veteran Chris Bassitt to support in the middle.

The Blue Jays however could stand to do better with their fifth starter if they’re looking to contend again in 2024.

Yariel Rodríguez looked a bit all over the place in his rookie season in 2024, Jake Bloss is still developing into a major league arm, and despite his desire to start, Jeff Hoffman’s injury concerns could limit him to remain in the bullpen.

Pair this with the fact that three of their top four starting arms (Gausman, Berrios and Bassitt) are on the wrong side of 30, and suddenly a bit of youth movement with Sasaki could do wonders for the Blue Jays in the immediate future.

Sasaki would also help supplement one of the weaker farm systems in baseball, with plenty of top pitching names in the Jays organization like Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera and Trey Yesavage all having legitimate injury concerns attached to them.

Looking from a 2025 standpoint in particular now, Sasaki’s strikeout ability would not be lost on a Jays team who sat middle of the pack (T-13th) in starter K/9 rate at just 8.48 in 2024.

That stellar arsenal with the fastball and splitter could do wonders in taming the countless strong bats within the AL East.

What the Blue Jays Can Offer Sasaki

At first glance, Dodgers and Padres seem to have a lot more to offer Sasaki than Toronto does.

However, that’s not to say the Blue Jays have nothing to offer the 23-year-old future star as he embarks on his MLB career.

Toronto has had great success with developing pitching at the major league level, with several recent instances being prime examples of how pitching coaching Pete Walker and his team have gotten the best out of big league arms.

Robbie Ray went from a 6.62 ERA pitcher in 2020, to a 2.84 ERA AL Cy Young winner in 2021.

While it may not have resulted in a Cy Young award, Steven Matz came to Toronto in 2021 after posting a near 10.00 ERA in 2020 with the Mets. In his lone campaign north of the border, the southpaw bounced back immensely posting a 3.82 ERA in 2021.

Yusei Kikuchi went from a 5.19 ERA arm in 2022 to a sub-4.00 ERA just a year later.

Then the most recent example is how Bowden Francis’ potential was unlocked late in 2024, as after a rough start to the year he wound up throwing to a 1.05 ERA in August and a 2.16 ERA in September after becoming a primary starter.

While their minor league pitching development may not bear as much fruit as other teams might, there’s no disputing that Toronto knows how to get the most out of a lot of their arms once they get up to major league level, which has to be appealing for any incoming starting arm, Sasaki included.

Now, Toronto may not be the smaller mid-market team that Padres are (which Sasaki might prefer) and may be a globally recognized city, they’re not the mega sports market that Los Angeles is, giving Sasaki a softer landing spot perhaps.

With all of that said, it would be a massive surprise for Sasaki to actually choose the Blue Jays in the end, when the Dodgers and Padres have long-been seen as favorites to lands his services.