Ryne Nelson Doesn’t Deserve to Be the Odd-Man Out in Arizona

It’s happening!

[Insert GIF from “The Office” here.]

Finally the starting rotation Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen put together back in the offseason is healthy. This week, they will finally start Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, and Brandon Pfaadt (the unsung youngster who’s anchored the rotation in 2024).

What, then, happens to Ryne Nelson who’s started 19 games for the season while the starting rotation sorts itself out?

It’s a question worth exploring, first in terms of what he’s brought to the D-backs and then in light of his possible short-term future.

How Has Nelson Been So Far?

He’s been good.

In 110.1 IP, Nelson has logged a 4.65 ERA with an 18.1% K%, a 5.9 BB%, and an impressive 0.80 HR/9. Add to that a 3.69 FIP (4.33 xFIP) as well as a 1.37 WHIP, and he becomes clear as a pitcher who’s over-performing expectations a bit. His 1.7 fWAR ranks third among D-backs starting pitchers.

“It’s been an overall focus of executing each pitch. One pitch at a time. When I focus on that it allows me to win 2 of the first 3 [pitches],” Nelson told Aaron Hughes in early July.

On July 19, he had a career high nine strikeouts when the D-backs played the Chicago Cubs in what has been a season of steady improvement.

When the D-backs needed him to step up as a pitcher, he did. His numbers have not been remarkable, but they have been consistent.

The question, now, is where he fits now with the return of Kelly and Rodriguez.

What Happens Next?

We’ll know soon.

Eduardo Rodriguez will pitch the second game of the D-backs series with the Cleveland Guardians while Merrill Kelly is expected to return for the Snakes’ weekend series with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery (6.37 ERA) remains shaky.

It’s possible the D-backs will go with a short-term six-man rotation with the goal of accomplishing two things. First, it would allow manager Torey Lovullo to manage the pitching loads of Rodriguez and Kelly on their return as Zac Gallen, who’s struggled with injuires this season. If the D-backs make it to the postseason, now is the time to use their pitching staff carefully.

Second, it would keep Nelson stretched out and with the Big-League team should the D-backs quickly need to move him back into the rotation.

However, this arrangement — should it happen — would probably be short-lived so that the D-backs could use that roster spot for an additional bullpen arm as they sort out their closer issues.

In that case, Nelson would probably be sent down to Triple-A Reno to stay stretched out and ready to return to the rotation.

A stint in the D-backs bullpen seems unlikely. The 61-52 team is in the midst of a playoff run, currently holding the third Wild Card. Should the Snakes need Nelson back in the rotation, there won’t be time to build up his innings. They’ll need him game-ready immediately.

What happens with the D-backs starting rotation, a project that is only now coming together after months of planning, will be one of the biggest stories to watch this week.