3 Keys to Big Week Ahead for San Diego Padres

The final week of the 2024 MLB regular season for the San Diego Padres will arguably be one of the most anticipated in franchise history.

With a sweep of the Chicago White Sox at Petco Park over the weekend, the Padres enter Tuesday’s series opener at Chavez Ravine against the Los Angeles Dodgers with plenty of momentum and confidence. San Diego is 40-17 since the All-Star break (the best record during that span in all of MLB) and the Padres are just 3.0 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West standings.

By the way, the Padres have won seven of the first 10 meetings this season against Los Angeles, meaning San Diego will own any kind of tiebreaker with the Dodgers should there be one at the top of the division.

With three games left in Los Angeles and three left on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego already has a postseason berth all but locked up. Now the Padres can simply focus on seeing if they can catch the Dodgers in the division standings.

So how could the Padres do that? Here are three things to watch for the Padres in the regular season’s final week.

Padres Rotation Must Keep Excelling

Since the All-Star break, San Diego’s pitchers have combined for a 3.30 ERA, good for third-best among all MLB teams during that stretch. Only the Tampa Bay Rays (3.13) and Detroit Tigers (3.14) entered Tuesday’s play with better numbers.

Opponents are hitting just .219 against Padres pitchers since the Midsummer Classic, tied for the second-best among MLB pitching staffs.

Success in San Diego, however, starts with the rotation, which has posted a 1.23 ERA over the last two weeks. Sure, names such as Dylan Cease and Joe Musgrove are expected to pitch at that level, but it’s been the return of Yu Darvish and the addition of Martin Perez that has really turned San Diego’s rotation into a lethal weapon.

Darvish’s return in late August after missing a significant stretch of the season to deal with personal matters could not have come at a better time for San Diego. In his four starts since returning, Darvish has posted a 3.15 ERA and struck out 21 in 20 innings.

Perez, acquired in a trade deadline deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, has a 2.61 ERA in his nine starts spanning 48.1 innings. However, his 4.68 FIP is something to watch as it indicates fortune has favored him since donning the brown and gold.

If San Diego’s pitchers can maintain their level of excellence over the final week of the season, it could give the Padres an edge against a pair of NL West rivals who have had injury and inconsistency issues with their own rotations.

Swinging Friars Stay Hot at the Plate

While the pitching has gotten plenty of well-deserved attention, San Diego’s hitters have also been doing their part to push the Padres forward in the second half. Heading into Sunday’s finale against the White Sox, San Diego batters had plated 5.13 runs per game since the All-Star Game, the fourth-best mark of any team behind the Chicago Cubs (5.16), Dodgers (5.48), and Diamondbacks (6.38).

Fernando Tatis Jr. has returned from a right femoral stress reaction and made a big impact on San Diego’s offense. Over the past 15 days (in which he has played in 11 games), Tatis is sixth in all of baseball with a 1.163 OPS, slashing .340/.354/.809 with six home runs and 11 RBI.

Also in MLB’s top 11 in OPS during that time frame is Jurickson Profar, who is having a comeback year for the ages. Profar has slashed .385/.457/.641 in his last 39 at-bats, proving his return to San Diego has helped elevate the franchise’s chances of capturing its first-ever World Series title.

Jackson Merrill Cementing NL Rookie of the Year Status

Let the argument over the NL Rookie of the Year continue to burn, with plenty of people believing it should be Merrill while others want Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes to earn the honor.

Whichever camp you reside in, if the Padres can not only cement their postseason chances and perhaps even improve them this week thanks in part to Merrill, it could prove big in the minds of BBWAA voters.

In 537 at-bats so far this season, Merrill is slashing .292/.326/.503 with 24 home runs and 89 RBI. Those numbers would certainly make a strong case for Rookie of the Year if Skenes was not dominating on the mound. However, with Skenes and the Pirates destined to miss the postseason, Merrill has the chance to make the definitive closing argument by providing a highlight-reel moment as the Padres chase the NL West title.

Over his last seven games, Merrill is 8-for-24 with three strikeouts and three walks, showing he is entering the final week of the regular season on a roll. Add to that his 6-for-12 numbers in his three previous games at Dodger Stadium and his 5-for-12 performance in three earlier games at Chase Field and it’s easy to see why Merrill will have every chance to show voters one last time why he is not only the choice for NL Rookie of the Year, but also why he is one of the keys to San Diego’s postseason potential.