Will the San Diego Padres or Arizona Diamondbacks Have the Wild Card Advantage?

As play began on Sept. 5, the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks were locked in a battle for the top Wild Card spot in the National League. The two NL West rivals were separated by just a half-game, with San Diego holding the slightest of edges over Arizona.

While it may be tough for either team to catch the Dodgers for the NL West crown (the Dodgers enter Friday with a five-game lead over the Padres and five-and-a-half over the Diamondbacks), where San Diego and Arizona finish in the standings will have a big impact on the Wild Card postseason round.

With the top Wild Card seed scheduled to host the second Wild Card team, this tight race could well determine whether Chase Field or Petco Park will be a focus in the first round of the MLB playoffs.

Below, Renee Dechert and Kevin Henry list the positives for both teams (Renee taking Arizona and Kevin detailing San Diego) in four different categories and come to a consensus on which team has the advantage in each of those categories.

The Fight for the Top NL Wild Card Spot

Which Team Has the Starting Rotation Edge?

Kevin: With Yu Darvish now back in the Padres rotation, the starting pitcher has solidified a bit more for this final stretch run. Dylan Cease and Joe Musgrove are the clear top two for the Padres and will be leaned upon from now through the end of the season, but Darvish’s return gives San Diego hope for what could be strength in the middle and back of the rotation.

San Diego’s starters have combined to post a 4.10 ERA this season, just barely behind the 4.12 posted by the Dodgers’ rotation. The Padres’ collective 3.96 FIP puts them in a tie for eighth among all MLB teams (and ahead of every other NL West team), so there is certainly room for optimism about what their starters can do with each pitcher having an estimated three to four starts left the campaign.

The key for San Diego could be what happens with Michael King, who has a 2.50 ERA over his last seven starts (39.2 innings). If he can continue to excel throughout September and Darvish can provide an emotional and statistical boost for the rotation, the club could be on its way to opening October at home.

Renee: Given Mike Hazen’s offseason moves (e.g., acquiring Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez) combined with veterans Merrill Kelly and Cy Young finalist Zac Gallen, the D-backs would appear to have the clear advantage on this front.

However, there’s nothing like inquiries to throw off the best-laid plans, and the D-backs have had more than their share this season.

In fact, check FanGraphs, and you’ll find that Brandon Pfaadt leads all D-backs starters with 3.1 fWAR. Gallen is second with 2.4 fWAR, and Ryne Nelson comes in third at 2.0 fWAR. Those arms that Hazen acquired have yet to recoup their value — and Montgomery was moved to the bullpen last week. The entire D-backs rotation is worth 9.1 fWAR, which is tied for 18th in MLB. They have a collective ERA of 4.73 (26th).

The D-backs also have a secret weapon in pitching coach Brent Strom, but he may not be enough to help a struggling rotation that’s ranked 21st in innings pitched. So much will depend up on Gallen and Kelly finish the season.

Advantage: Padres

Which Team Has the Bullpen Edge?

Kevin: San Diego reinforced its bullpen at the trade deadline, bringing in Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from Miami. Those moves have paid big dividends for San Diego, with Scott posting a 2.25 ERA in 16.0 innings over 17 games and Hoeing registering a 1.13 ERA in 16.0 innings over 11 games.

The Padres are also getting back veteran southpaw Wandy Peralta, who has been on the injured list since mid-July. Peralta gives manager Mike Shildt another left-handed option that he can use when needed.

All of the pitchers mentioned above are late-inning options, but the closer is Robert Suarez, who is fourth all of baseball with 31 saves.

Renee: The D-backs already had a robust bullpen coming into 2024 with Hazen working to make it stronger at the trade deadline by trading for AJ Puk. Adding him to a bullpen that includes Ryan Thompson, Justin Martinez, and Paul Sewald put the Snakes in a position to be successful.

Then, things began to deteriorate, most notably with Sewald losing the zone and, eventually, the closer role. Currently, Kevin Ginkel (1.4 fWAR) is the D-backs most valuable reliever followed by Justin Martinez (1.1 fWAR). When Martinez is on, he’s electric; when he’s not, it can be hard to watch. They collectively have a 2.5 fWAR, which ranks them 17th in MLB.

In terms of ERA, the D-backs are 23rd, so not great. Add to that, their 533 innings pitched comes in eighth. So the bullpen has beginning to wear down after a starting rotation that has underperformed.

Advantage: Padres

Which Team Has the Lineup Edge?

Kevin: To kick off September, San Diego fans were certainly glad to see Fernando Tatis Jr. make it back into the lineup after being out since late June with a right femoral stress reaction. He immediately made his presence felt on Wednesday with the game-winning hit, part of a 2-for-6 night at the plate.

The return of Tatis certainly makes the San Diego lineup more formidable. However, while veteran names like Tatis, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts dot the lineup, the X-factor this season for the Padres has been the meteoric rise of Jackson Merrill, who leads San Diego with 3.7 bWAR and is currently the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year according to BetMGM. Merrill’s 22 home runs and .292/.323/.498 slash line have been a huge boost for a Padres lineup that already has plenty of superstars.

Speaking of surprises, how about the year from Jurickson Profar? The first-time All-Star has been one of baseball’s sneakiest shocks this year, posting a .278/.383/.461 slash line. However, he was mired in a 1-for-23 slump over his previous seven games before a 1-for-3 showing with a home run on Thursday.

Another thing to watch for the Padres in September is exactly when Ha-Seong Kim returns to the lineup. He is expected to rejoin the Padres soon after shaking off the effects of a jammed shoulder.

Renee: The D-backs continue to have one of the most explosive offenses in baseball, all that despite a struggling Corbin Carroll, injuries to mainstays Christian Walker and Gabriel Moreno, who has missed most of the season, and Eugenio Suárez’s early-season struggles.

If there’s a defining characteristic of this team, however, it’s their ability to respond — and a deep bench. Jake McCarthy has returned to form (125 wRC+), Ketel Marte was in the NL MVP conversation until being sidelined with an ankle injury, Suárez turned a corner after the All-Star Break (first-half wRC+: 87; second-half wRC+: 146) as has Carroll, the NL’s August Player of the Month.

Add to that the stand-up performances of DHs Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk as well as utility infielder Kevin Newman and Josh Bell, acquired at the trade deadline, and the D-backs have shown their characteristic resilience.

This is a 28.3 fWAR offense that will only improve as Carroll continues to stay hot — only the Yankees have a higher collective fWAR (30.1). Moreover, the D-backs lead baseball in OBP (.336). This isn’t the same D-backs team they were last year — they have fewer home runs and stolen bases — but they’re still managing to produce runs and win game.

Advantage: D-backs

Which Team Has the Schedule Edge?

Kevin: September’s home slate sets up potentially well for the Friars with the San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox paying a visit. However, it’s on the road where San Diego will have to keep its Wild Card edge, with 11 of its final 20 games coming away from Petco Park. The Padres finish the season with a six-game trip to meet the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, and that stretch could make or break San Diego’s chances of hosting the Wild Card round.

Renee: The D-backs have upcoming series with the Houston Astros and a repeat of the 2023 World Series with the Texas Rangers. Perhaps most challenging are six games they must play again the Milwaukee Brewers. Still, they will play the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants.

Perhaps most interesting — and relevant here: The D-backs and Padres will play each other in the final series of the season, which may well determine the fate of both teams.

Advantage: D-backs

Don’t sleep on the NL West because things are far from settled.