San Diego Padres Are a Real Threat To Win the World Series

The Los Angeles Dodgers may have received all of the National League preseason hype, but it’s another Southern California team that is ending the season by generating some serious consideration as an October contender.

After a season of missed opportunities last year, the San Diego Padres have seemingly found their footing under first-year manager Mike Shildt.

In 2023, a mixture of All-Star talent on the mound and in the lineup couldn’t find the right chemistry, with the Padres struggling through August to a 10-18 record on their way to an 82-80 full-season record and just missing the postseason.

This year, however, the Padres (with a 99.4 percent chance to make the postseason entering play on Wednesday, per FanGraphs) have the look of a team that not only wants to make amends for its stumbles last season but also carve out its own identity.

Plenty of key players have been added to the team since that 2023 fumble. Jackson Merrill is making his case for National League Rookie of the Year and has become the late-lineup bat that can keep the offense moving.

Luis Arraez, acquired from the Miami Marlins in early May, has brought a batting style to San Diego that is reminiscent of Mr. Padre himself, Tony Gwynn.

Dylan Cease, brought over from the Chicago White Sox in a spring training trade, has solidified the top of the rotation. He wrote his name in San Diego record books with the franchise’s second-ever no-hitter in late July.

Add talent like that to the existing cornucopia of All-Star talent in Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, plus the resurgent Jurickson Profar (who at the time of this writing was leading the team with a 138 OPS+) and there are plenty of reasons why the Padres will be trouble for any team they face in the postseason.

“Everybody knows we have a really good team, especially right now,” Arraez told MLB.com. “We compete, man. We have everything to win. We just need to stay healthy.”

According to FanGraphs, the Padres enter play on Wednesday with a 9.8 percent chance to win the World Series.

That is the third-highest percentage in the National League (behind the Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies) and fifth-highest in all of baseball (add in the New York Yankees, who lead all teams with a 19.1 percent chance to win it all, and the Houston Astros). It’s easy to see why there is a buzz around this Padres team.

Part of that buzz comes from the atmosphere currently surrounding the Padres. This time last season, there was frustration oozing from every crevice for San Diego as they knew their season was slipping away.

This year, the key word around the Padres is “fun.” It’s a vibe that can be seen in the sellout crowds at Petco Park and felt on the diamond as well.

“When you’re winning, you have a lot of fun,” Profar told MLB.com. “The way that we are doing it — it’s more fun. Everyone is doing their part.”

Everyone is doing their part at the plate for sure, where San Diego enters Wednesday leading MLB with a combined .265 batting average. The Padres are also in the top 10 in on-base percentage (.327, tied for fifth), slugging percentage (.418, eighth) and OPS (.745, seventh).

On the mound, San Diego’s pitching has been stellar after the All-Star break, combining for a 3.44 ERA, the sixth-lowest among MLB’s 30 teams. Opponents are hitting just .223 against Padres pitchers, the sixth-lowest figure.

All of those numbers have certainly led to a good season so far in San Diego. The team’s 86-65 record heading into play on Tuesday was the second-best in club history through 151 games, trailing only the 1998 team’s 95-56 (.629).

That 1998 Padres team, by the way, went to the World Series. That record also pushed San Diego to 21 games over .500 for the first time since 2010.

That’s all well and good, but getting deep into October will be anything but easy. As the playoff picture stands, the Padres hold the top Wild Card in the National League and would host the Mets in the first round of the postseason. From there, they could potentially face higher seeds with home field advantage in the next three rounds.

But don’t tell anyone inside the San Diego clubhouse that’s a problem. After all, this is a team that is 45-30 on the road this season.

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers both proved last postseason, Wild Card teams can get hot and make it all the way to the Fall Classic. Right now, it appears the San Diego Padres could follow that path to the World Series as well.