Shohei Ohtani Is Ending the Debate That a DH Can’t Win the MVP
Nearing the first 50/50 season in MLB history, Shohei Ohtani has proven that despite being a DH-only, he is still the best player in the NL.
In early March, I attempted to answer a question posed by many in the baseball world. Can Shohei Ohtani win the National League MVP without pitching?
A better question might have been: Can Ohtani become the first ever one-way DH since the adoption of the position in 1973 to win the award?
The answer to both questions seems to be a resounding yes.
History had been against Ohtani in this way, but the superstar continues to break barriers we never thought possible. This is nothing new for a 30-year-old, who has already defied the odds to become the first superstar two-way player since Babe Ruth.
Ohtani leads the National League with 44 home runs. He’s amongst the league leaders in batting average and RBI, meaning he’s a legitimate threat at winning the Triple Crown. Oh, and he’s also recorded 46 stolen bases, so he’s on pace to reach never-before imagined heights of 50/50.
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ leadoff hitter enters the final four weeks as the favorite in the NL for Most Valuable Player for numerous reasons. Should he pull it off, he’ll become the 14th player to win consecutive MVP awards, not to mention just the 12th three-time winner and only the second behind Hall of Famer Frank Robinson to win in both leagues.
Dave Roberts said early in Spring Training that Ohtani’s body would rebound more easily from the day-to-day rigors of the sport. Without having to play defense or — in Ohtani’s case — pitch every five days, he should be better offensively.
Roberts further hinted at what would be possible in 2024 by saying, “I think one thing he’s been mindful of, as far as the offensive profile this year, is maybe being a little bit more aggressive stealing bases.”
That single sentence from Roberts on February 17 at the team’s Arizona facility in Camelback Ranch was a hint at the history Ohtani would be chasing all season long. Now, 23 games before crossing the finish line, that history is within his reach.
Let’s take a look at what yours truly had to say before Ohtani started compiling statistics and the baseball gods decided to interject to help make a case for him becoming the first DH to win MVP…
Hindsight is 50/50
“The most stolen bases for a starting DH in the NL is only 17. It also took Harper 191 games to amass that total. Should Ohtani break the league record by August, perhaps his MVP case will receive a small boost.”
Since the history of the designated hitter in the Senior Circuit is limited to three seasons, setting the new mark is not a major accomplishment. Even breaking the DH stolen base record in the AL isn’t all that remarkable given the general limitations of the role/position.
Ohtani managed to record 23 stolen bases by the All-Star break, three shy of his career-high with 65 games left. Reaching 40 steals on Aug. 23, with over a month remaining, first made it plausible he could actually become the first 50/50 player in the history of the game.
Even with stolen bases on the rise around the sport, which somewhat devalues the statistic, and his inability to play defense aside, reaching 50 steals is an incredible output that should not have an asterisk placed beside it due to the new rule changes and his role as the DH.
“It’s worth noting that designated hitters aren’t well-known for stealing bases. Instead, they hardly ever do. In the era of the DH in the National League, the player with the most games at the position is Marcell Ozuna with 251 games. He’s produced exactly one stolen base.”
As it turns out, designated hitters don’t exactly need to steal bases in order to garner MVP attention. Ozuna, who has zero steals again, is making a case to earn the league’s top honor as a legitimate Triple Crown candidate.
Ozuna is second in batting average (.306), second in home runs (37) and third for RBI (98). If he can get it done, it could block Ohtani from the MVP regardless of a 50/50 achievement.
When Miguel Cabrera won the AL Triple Crown in 2013, the first in the Junior Circuit since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, the Venezuelan slugger won his second consecutive MVP in the process.
Despite a certain rookie named Mike Trout being markedly better than Cabrera according to Baseball Reference’s version of WAR, 10.5 to 7.1, the Triple Crown winner won.
For BBWAA voters, the historical significance was viewed as more important than the metrics. Could the same happen this year if Ozuna wins the first NL Triple Crown since Joe “Ducky” Medwick in 1937?
“Ohtani more than likely won’t be topping Barry Bonds’ mark of 73 home runs. Besting Judge with 63 homers would be held in high regard. Much more attainable is the Dodgers’ single-season record for most homers. Shawn Green’s 49 home runs remains the standard for the 141-year-old franchise.”
With yet another Hollywood highlight, Ohtani hit his 40th home run on a walk-off grand slam.
(If you actually put that in a movie script, the film would not get greenlighted because of the lack of believability.)
Becoming only the sixth Dodger to reach that milestone since the franchise moved out of Brooklyn is an impressive feat. On the stolen base side of the 40/40, it’s worth noting that the last player to reach the mark for the franchise (Dee Strange-Gordon in 2012), hit a total of two home runs.
A total of 20 of MLB’s 30 clubs have had at least one player reach the 50 home run mark.
The Dodgers are the oldest franchise excluded from that list. Ohtani may change that by the middle of September.
“In a year in which he’ll be more mortal than we’ve seen him in several years, Ohtani will need to have the greatest season for a designated hitter if he’s going to become the 2024 NL MVP.”
Well, he’s pretty much accomplished that. And we still have nearly 15% of the season remaining.
What’s Working Against Ohtani
Ohtani has made a great case as to why he should become the first DH to take home the MVP honors. Is his case perfect? No. Does it have major flaws that will prevent him from winning? Also no.
Los Angeles is replete with superstars. Mookie Betts was the favorite to win before going down for two months with a left hand fracture in June.
His candidacy had a lot to do with his offensive numbers. It was boosted significantly by a flexibility to not only move from the outfield grass to the infield dirt, not to mention playing a premium defensive role like shortstop after not having fielded that position since high school.
Freddie Freeman is still one of the top first basemen in the game — even with a fractured finger — and seems like a lock to appear on someone’s MVP ballot for the 10th time in the last 12 years. Teoscar Hernández is approaching 30 home runs and 100 RBI.
That’s a lot of marquee support for the Dodgers even without Ohtani. Ozuna, by comparison, has not had the same caliber of player surrounding him this season, especially after the loss of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. in May.
As prominent as the word valuable is in the Most Valuable Player Award, this aspect has been downplayed over time. MVP has been equated to best overall player for some years now, so it’s unlikely Ohtani will be docked for the presence of All-Stars having MVP-caliber seasons around him.
Let’s not forget: Acuña Jr. still won the award in 2023 with a historic 40/70 season that corresponded with Matt Olson’s franchise-record 54 home run campaign for Atlanta.
Some might point to Othani’s slashline as having taken a dip since last season, but it’s the addition of the stolen base in bunches to his game that is making his MVP case so obvious. He’s already the first player with 44 homers and 44 steals in a season. To reach 50/50, regardless of doing so as the DH, should be more than enough for voters.
Even as a mere mortal that cannot play defense, Ohtani is simply better than the greatest human beings that populate our planet.
What’s Working For Ohtani
My crystal ball totally missed the absence of another great MVP candidate who could take the mantle from Ohtani. Other than the Triple Crown case for Ozuna, who else has stepped up to win the award?
Ketel Marte went on the injured list just as his MVP case — and the Arizona Diamondbacks — began to pick up steam. Matt Chapman is favored by both versions of WAR as a top five player in the NL, but the third baseman is aided heavily by his superb defense. Besides, the San Francisco Giants will not make the postseason and Chapman won’t even be reaching 30 homers and 100 RBI.
Paul Skenes and Elly De La Cruz may match Ohtani for the most highlights shared around the globe, but neither have been good enough to justify winning the award when their clubs are battling their way out of the basement of the NL Central.
Willy Adames has come on strong for the Milwaukee Brewers over the past month and was the first player in the NL to reach 100 RBI, but it’s a different shortstop that may make the best case if anyone other than Ozuna is going to surpass Ohtani.
Francisco Lindor has led the New York Mets to postseason relevance in a season that was supposed to be a step back for the organization. Since June 3, Lindor has posted a 5.4 fWAR as the top player in the NL. Next best is De La Cruz at 3.9 and Ohtani at 3.8. That’s a significant difference between Lindor and rest of the league.
Lindor is leading the National League in fWAR by half a win, and has been racking up more fWAR than Ohtani for months now. But this is because he gets the added benefit of the defensive value he brings as one of the best shortstops in baseball, which is the case some have made here at Just Baseball for why he deserves the award.
Ultimately the MVP is largely an offensive award, and when you evaluate that this season, no player in the National League has been better than Ohtani.
Even if the Mets can reach the playoffs with Lindor as their leader in the clubhouse and on both sides of the ball, the odds are still stacked against anyone winning the NL MVP over Ohtani.
Afterall, it’s Ohtani’s world. We just live in it.
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