Top Notes From the Chicago Cubs ZiPS Projections for 2025

The National League Central feels up for grabs heading into 2025. That’s a good thing for the Chicago Cubs.

After back-to-back 83-win seasons, they’ve missed the postseason in four straight years. They haven’t made it to the postseason after a full, 162-game slate since 2018 and haven’t won a playoff game since 2017. Coming off the curse-breaking World Series in 2016, that’s just too long to go without postseason success.

But this could certainly be the year they end that drought. With no clear favorite in the Central plus the Milwaukee Brewers looking like they’ll take a step back — yes, we’ve said that the last couple years and they prove us wrong — the division appears there for the taking.

And this could be the Cubs team to take it.

During the Cubs’ opening presser for spring training Sunday, general manager Carter Hawkins told reporters in Arizona, “In the three-plus years I’ve been here, this is certainly the most talented team.” That’s not an inaccurate way to look at this club. It’s probably still true even if you take it back to when Jed Hoyer first took over as president of baseball operations after the 2020 season.

Both FanGraphs and PECOTA project the Cubs to take the division. So, the projection systems see them as a talented ballclub, too.

Speaking of projection systems, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs released his ZiPS projections for every team throughout the offseason. For those unaware of how his projection system works, here’s a quick summary, courtesy of MLB.com (for a more detailed explanation, here’s one from Szymborski himself):

ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season… Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

“sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS)” MLB.com

Back on Dec. 19, Szymborski published the initial Cubs ZiPS projections. There have been a few changes to the roster since then, however, so how about we look at the updated Cubs ZiPS projections and see what it has in store for them in 2025.

Cubs ZiPS: Position Players

The Cubs had a nice group of strong hitters the last two years, but the lineup lacked that superstar bat. Now, it seems they’ve added that by trading for Kyle Tucker. Among all qualified hitters since the start of 2021, only 12 position players have accumulated more than Tucker’s 19.1 Wins Above Replacement (FanGraphs), and only eight hitters have a better wRC+ than his 145.

He is the game-changing bat this team has needed. But let’s take a look at how the Cubs ZiPS projections feel about the lineup as a whole.

• Still no 5-WAR player for the Cubs. One of the things the Cubs’ front office has discussed is the “consolidation of WAR.” That essentially means that while the Cubs have had a balanced lineup, they haven’t had that one player who put together a star-level performance across a full season. The Cubs ZiPS projects another year with a bunch of really good seasons, but none that reach that 5-WAR threshold.
  
  Surprisingly, that includes Tucker. Despite his only season in the last four with below 4.9 fWAR coming last year when he missed half the season, he’s only projected for 3.6 by ZiPS. The Cubs will have to hope he really outperforms that projection.

• ZiPS loves the Cubs’ middle infield. Both Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are projected for 4-plus WAR seasons. A ton of that comes from their defense, since they’re both former Gold Glove winners. ZiPS doesn’t see that changing, and it also projects both to be slightly above-average hitters at the plate.
  
  No, they don’t project to be superstars, and you’d love for their offensive projections to be higher. But you’re more than fine with 4-win seasons from those two if they’re giving you premium defense up the middle.

• The outfield is strong all around. Tucker’s 3.6 fWAR would lead the group, combined with a team-high 131 wRC+. Ian Happ is projected for 3.4 fWAR and a 120 wRC+, pretty consistent with where he’s been the last three years. ZiPS thinks Pete Crow-Armstrong will take a massive leap and carry his last two months of 2024 into 2025, projecting him for 3.3 fWAR and a 100 wRC+. Seiya Suzuki, who will mostly be the DH but should be included in this group as well, is projected for 3.1 fWAR and a 130 wRC+.
  
  And then you have youngsters like Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara and Alexander Canario. All on the 40-man roster (Canario without minor league options), ZiPS has positive projections for the outfield trio (in terms of how they would perform in full-time big league roles, of course). It’s overall a group ZiPS like a lot.

• Matt Shaw could have a very good debut season. Last year, Michael Busch earned an everyday role at first base. By the end of his first full season in the majors, he’d improved a lot defensively and showed a ton of promise at the plate. Overall, he finished with 2.3 fWAR and a 119 wRC+. This year, ZiPS thinks Shaw can do something similar.
  
  He’s currently projected to be worth 2.2 fWAR, posting a 105 wRC+ along with 16 home runs and 18 steals. That’d be a great starting point, and if he can outperform those projections, you’re looking at a breakout player who’d likely be in the NL Rookie of the Year discussion.

Cubs ZiPS: Pitching Staff

There were concerns for the pitching staff as a whole coming off the 2024 season.

While the rotation did put together a great year, they also pitched half their games in a pitcher-friendly environment at Wrigley. That won’t necessarily be the case this year. It felt like the Cubs needed to make real additions to strengthen the group. Meanwhile, the bullpen’s lack of depth and late-inning options hurt the team in 2024.

Let’s see what ZiPS thinks of the changes made to the overall group.

Rotation and Bullpen

• Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga lead the way again. Steele has grown into the Cubs’ ace starting basically in the second half of 2022. Imanaga came to the U.S. for the first time and put together an excellent rookie year. ZiPS thinks that duo should put together another strong performance in 2025.
  
  It projects Steele and Imanaga to be worth 2.8 and 2.6 fWAR, respectively. On the flip side, those only rank 25th and 33rd among major league pitcher projections. It looks like the Cubs will need their top-two arms to outperform those marks to pick up some of the slack.

• What will the Cubs get from their new starters? Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea will factor into the bottom of the rotation. But how much they will contribute will have a say in how far this team goes. The Cubs ZiPS projects them to be worth 1 fWAR apiece. That seems underwhelming and makes it feel like the Cubs should’ve done more to address the rotation this winter.
  
  Rea projects to eat a lot of innings over more starts. Boyd projects to make fewer starts but post a lower ERA and a higher strikeout rate. But like the top of the rotation, it feels like the Cubs will need to get more out of these two.

• Ben Brown could still be a nice starting arm. Brown flashed his starter potential plenty last season — before the injury — but his repertoire would work really well out of the bullpen, too. Still, with the Cubs needed all hands on deck in the rotation, Brown projects to step up.
  
  ZiPS has him down to start 15 of his 20 appearances for 77 total innings. You’d obviously love him to be pitching more, but he’s still projected for 1.2 fWAR. His 25.4 percent strikeout rate would be highest among the starters, and his 3.74 ERA would be third. Again, you’d want those numbers to come across a lot more innings, and they are a bit down from his 2024 marks, but they would still be strong nonetheless.

• Ryan Pressly is the favorite to close games. This was already expected, but the Cubs ZiPS projections say their big bullpen addition should get the bulk of the closing opportunities — and will find success in that role. He’s projected for 25 saves, by far the most on the team. His 3.35 ERA would be tops among Cubs relievers.
  
  However, his projected save total is tied for 16th among big league relievers, while his projected ERA is 45th. So, though he should be solid in the backend for the Cubs, his projections aren’t for elite late-inning production. That should be evident from his projected 0.5 fWAR, which doesn’t even crack the top 60 among relievers.

Cubs ZiPS: Final Thoughts

The Cubs have a talented team. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies look more stacked, but this is a strong ballclub.

That feels even more true on the position-player side. Looking back on this winter, the Cubs mostly plugged the holes on the roster. Shaw, while still a highly regarded prospect, is probably the only true question mark around the field. Offset that with the big addition of Tucker plus smaller adds like Carson Kelly and Jon Berti, though, and you feel better about the overall group.

There’s less confidence in the pitching from the Cubs ZiPS projections. The system just isn’t as high on the arms, particularly with the starters, and that could prove to be a problem in 2025.

Hoyer often talks about needing players to outperform projections. While many fans hate the term, it is true (to an extent) that you need players to exceed projections to have special seasons (along with just having stars you can count on to produce star-level seasons).

The Cubs aren’t yet at the level of clubs like the Dodgers. They don’t have the star power some of their peers around the league do.

To compete at that level, it looks like they’ll need some outperforming of projections to help them get there.