Was Yusei Kikuchi the Missing Piece for the Houston Astros?

The Houston Astros acquired LHP Yusei Kikuchi on Monday night in exchange for RHP Jake Bloss, OF Joey Loperfido, and INF Will Wagner.

A slew of injuries this season has plagued the Astros rotation. Luis Garcia had Tommy John surgery in May of last year. The righty has since been rehabbing and recently threw in a simulated game environment but he’s yet to toe the rubber for the Astros in 2024.

Cristian Javier, and Jose Uriquidy both got Tommy John surgery in the same week last month. Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t thrown a pitch for Houston since 2022 and reports from earlier this month don’t indicate that he’ll return in 2024.

Former MVP and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander has dealt with injuries throughout 2024 that have limited to just 57 innings to this point in the season. The veteran is currently on the IL with neck discomfort.

It’s safe to say that 2024 has not been kind to the Houston Astros. Even some of their hitters have had poor luck with injuries. Superstar OF Kyle Tucker has played in just 60 games this season due to a shin contusion. This injury halted his incredible start to the season that saw him accumulate 3.2 fWAR in just 262 plate appearances.

The Astros rotation ranks 18th in the league in ERA and 23rd in fWAR. If Houston is to finish 2024 outside of the top 20 in SP fWAR among the league, it would be the first time they’ve done so since 2013. They went 51-111 that year.

What Does Yusei Kikuchi Bring to the Table in Houston?

Yusei Kikuchi joins Houston as a 33-year-old lefty who has posted a 4.46 ERA across 541 innings in the last 4 seasons. In that time, he’s been worth 5.2 fWAR.

In 2024 to this point, Kikuchi has posted a 4.75 ERA, a sizeable step back from his 3.86 ERA in 2023. Astros fans might not be over the moon about this acquisition but there is far more than what meets the eye when it comes to this veteran lefty.

Kikuchi has been a four-pitch-mix arm since abandoning his cutter last season. He leans heavily upon a four-seam fastball that gets above-average induced vertical break and comes from a low-release slot. Kikuchi also manages to get elite extension despite being just 6 ft tall. The low release point and the above-average extension allow for this pitch to play up.

He leans heavily upon the fastball, throwing it nearly 50% of the time. It’s a great pitch by Stuff+ and other models, but it’s the pitch causing him the most damage and getting the least swinging strikes.

The secondaries seem to be doing a decent job at allowing below-average xwOBA and generating SwStr rates north of 10%. This is likely why Kikuchi has seen an uptick in K-rates. He’s even walking fewer batters than his career-best 2023 season.

So, if the fastball grades out better than his secondary stuff, why on Earth is it causing him the most damage?

Location is the Key for Kikuchi

Kikuchi has a terrible problem with leaving the ball over the heart of the plate when it comes to his fastball location.

*Note that the top row of maps is for righty hitters and the bottom row is for lefty hitters facing Kikuchi

As shown above, his damage maps (indicating where in the zone he’s giving up the highest xwOBA) coincide with the location of where the pitch is primarily being thrown to both lefties and righties.

Compare that to the whiff maps on the far left where we can see that Kikuchi gets swing and miss at the top of the zone.

Kikuchi is giving up an absurd amount of damage to LHHs on the fastball because he is laying it in there. Even though he has all of the advanced metrics and even the high-octane velocity to lead you to believe the pitch should be performing well, it’s getting crushed.

The good news is that Kikuchi is walking just 6.0% of the batters he’s facing so there’s more than enough room to mess around with the location of that pitch. If the Astros pitching staff recognizes this, which they almost certainly do, they have a chance to turn Yusei Kikuchi into a true top-of-the-rotation arm.

When Kikuchi gets the fastball to the top of the zone, he’s not only getting more swing and miss, but he’s allowing next to no damage. This season, on fastballs to left-handed hitters that are located at the top of the zone, Kikuchi has allowed a .077 xwOBA.

Kikuchi will join the likes of fellow lefty Framber Valdez, and righties Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, and Hunter Brown in this Houston rotation. Garcia and Verlander look to return to this rotation soon.

Kikuchi may not look like a positive addition on paper but there’s a lot to wish on for this southpaw. I love the potential here… but was it worth the asking price in terms of prospect capital?

The Blue Jays Get a Haul for Kikuchi

It’s become evident that the prices to pay for teams that are buying reinforcements at this year’s deadline are higher than in previous seasons. The Blue Jays took advantage of this market and got a ton of value for the impending free agent, Yusei Kikuchi

Jake Bloss

2024 Stats (Double-A): 44.2 IP / 1.61 ERA / 4.01 xFIP / 13.3% K-BB%

2024 Stats (MLB): 11.2 IP / 6.94 ERA / 7.61 xFIP / 14.5% K-BB%

Bloss is a RHP who joins the Toronto rotation to replace Yusei Kikuchi immediately. This move makes sense for Toronto considering that it’s hard to remember the last time the Blue Jays developed a starting pitcher themselves who had sustained success in the major leagues.

Bloss made eight starts at Double-A prior to making a one-start pit stop at Triple-A before getting the call to Houston for his MLB debut.

The 23-year-old righty was drafted in the third round of the 2023 draft out of Georgetown. Since getting to the show, Bloss has struggled but that’s almost certainly a product of his rapid promotion to the MLB.

As I said, he’ll probably slot into the Blue Jays rotation for the rest of the season but it wouldn’t surprise me if he were to start off 2025 in Triple-A.

Bloss has an exciting six-pitch mix that he’s proven to be able to command well to this point. His breaking balls, especially the curveball, have performed well and missed a lot of bats. Bloss’ above-average command, elite extension, and lower-than-average release spot make him oddly similar to Kikuchi.

Joey Loperfido

2024 Stats (MLB): 118 PA / 88 wRC+ / 2 HR / 2 SB / 0.3 fWAR

2024 Stats (AAA): 189 PA / 121 wRC+ / 13 HR / 9 SB

The former Duke Blue Devil made his debut for the Houston Astros earlier this season. Since then he’s struggled to hit breaking balls but has shown off his exciting power/speed combination and the plate and on the base paths.

The 25-year-old lefty outfielder has struggled against non-fastballs in the major leagues to this point in his young career. He’s mashing fastballs when he gets them but his lack of experience seeing big-league pitching has run him into a 36.4% K-rate through 38 games with the Astros.

Loperfido will need to work on lifting the ball more in order to maximize his potential power output but for now, the raw pop is very intriguing. He can also be used in all three outfield spots as well as first base when needed.

Will Wagner

2024 Stats (AAA): 324 PA / 122 wRC+ / 5 HR / 3 SB / 16.7% BB / 10.2% K

Wagner rounds out this exciting package of prospects. Don’t let the rankings fool you. Wagner is not an “oh, by the way” prospect.

He is 26 years old and has yet to debut but over the past two seasons, Wagner has really come into his own as a hitter.

He’s been one of the best contact hitters in Triple-A so far this year. What’s even more impressive is that he’s making contact at an elite rate while hitting the ball harder than average.

Wagner’s MLB player comparisons are enticing, too. His batted ball profiles matches up nicely with some impressive major leaguers.

Wagner should undoubtedly debut soon for the Blue Jays. He’s proven to be too good of a hitter at Triple-A at this point.

Overall this was an elite haul of some very exciting and perhaps most importantly, MLB-ready prospects for Toronto.

Are Houston and Toronto Done or is This Just the Start?

Considering just how expensive it was for Houston to acquire a rental starter in Kikuchi, it might make some buyers back off a little and work with what they have.

Other teams will not shy away from these steep asking prices and throw whatever is required in order to improve their playoff chances.

What will the rest of this trade deadline window look like for each of these clubs?

Toronto’s Mini Sale

It’s unlikely that the Jays sell any player that is more than a rental. Considering the reports that have surfaced over the last couple of weeks and even looking at the package of prospects that Houston got for Kikuchi, it’s evident that this deadline of selling for Toronto is with the intention to reload, not to rebuild.

Fortunately for Blue Jays fans, but perhaps unfortunately for fans of teams in need of help at first base, I don’t believe that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is traded before Tuesday’s deadline.

Taking a look at the only other two players on the Blue Jays who are free agents after this season, we have OF Kevin Kiermaier and RHP Trevor Richards. Kiermaier cleared waivers when he was placed on them several weeks ago so a trade of the veteran center fielder is incredibly unlikely. Richards has struggled over the past couple of seasons but I think he’s the next piece to go, regardless.

SPs Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman have another year and two years of contractual control, respectively. If the Blue Jays still want to make a run next year, they’ll hold onto to these veteran righties.

What Else Can the Astros Afford?

After buying Kikuchi at this steep price, the Astros are left with way fewer pieces to play with than they did before. Their already below-average farm system just lost three of their better youngsters, leaving only their top-shelf guys available.

Two Houston prospects who still remain are both on Just Baseball’s Top 100 List. OF Jacob Melton ranks as JB’s #77 overall prospect while OF Luis Baez ranks as the #95 overall prospect.

The Astros could use some help offensively at first base. Houston ranks only above Colorado in fWAR from their 1B slot this season.

I also think this rotation could use another arm. As of right now, their playoff rotation doesn’t look nearly as terrifying as it has in previous seasons. With Verlander consistently dealing with health issues as well, it’d be wise to grab another front-end arm.

With that being said, I truly don’t know if they can do that. This was an unbelievable haul of prospects for a few months of a mid-rotation starter. With the lack of depth in this Houston farm system, the Astros might have just made their one and only big time move of the deadline.