Which Team is More Dangerous in the Playoffs: Mets or Braves?

With just eight games on the regular season schedule, the New York Mets are leading the Atlanta Braves by two games in the National League Wild Card standings.

This was totally unexpected heading into June. However, the Mets have gone 63-36 since veteran reliever Jorge Lopez threw his glove into the stands and was later released a day later.

That moment sparked the Mets, who have the best record in MLB during that span.

It’s also been a long time coming for the Mets. New York hadn’t been in front of the Braves by two or more games in the standings since September 23, 2022.

But with just a week and a half remaining, the Mets are ahead of the Braves by two games heading into this weekend, sitting at 85-69 on the season.

It’s been an epic turnaround. The Mets had been more than 10 games below .500 earlier this season but are now 16 games above .500.

Things can change quickly, and the Braves know a lot about that.

Atlanta finished last season with 95 wins. Many projected that Atlanta would be better this season and win 100+ games. But with injuries to Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and A.J. Minter, that dream never surfaced.

Instead, the Braves have been hovering around .500 throughout the second half of the season and don’t look remotely close to the team many picked to be the World Series favorite.

Atlanta just got Albies back in the lineup and will likely have Riley available for the playoffs. Would those two give the Braves enough firepower for a potential playoff run?

Below, we’ll discuss if the Mets or Braves are more dangerous in the playoffs. 

All the following stats were taken prior to play on September 20th.

Who Has The Better Lineup?

The Atlanta Braves have the ninth-highest WAR in the National League regarding hitting. The group has added a wRC+ of just 99 (8th in NL) and has a -10.5 BsR (Last in NL).

Meanwhile, the Mets are second-to-last in BsR. The Braves and Mets love running themselves out of innings.

That said, the Mets have added a wRC+ of 111 and have a WAR of 25.7. They’ve been the more consistent offense throughout this season.

While Atlanta is second in the National League in home runs with 199, the Mets are only one home run away from tying the Braves in that department.

However, when you look at data from September, you will see that the Mets are blowing the Braves out of the water offensively. The Mets have hit 24 home runs and have a wRC+ of 113. They’ve also added a WAR of 3.0.

On the other hand, in September, the Braves added just 20 home runs and a wRC+ of 103. They’re still the worst base-running team in the National League and have a WAR of just 2.1 since September 1.

Atlanta will get Ozzie Albies back in the lineup today. But over the last 30 days, Matt Olson has been the only hot hitter against both sides of the plate. He’s hit a .280 ISO and wOBA of .409 with only 14.9% of strikeouts over the last month. However, using a projected lineup against righties, the Braves have hit a .142 ISO and wOBA of .279 with more than 20% of strikeouts.

Meanwhile, the Mets don’t have Francisco Lindor due to a nagging back injury.

It sounds like he’ll be healthy before the season ends. But with Lindor injured, the Mets have relied on Luisangel Acuna, Ronald’s brother.

So far, Acuna has tattooed the ball, earning a .467 ISO and wOBA of .602 since being called up. Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos also have high ISO numbers and only four batters on the Mets roster have hit a below-average wOBA number over the last 30 days. 

Therefore, the Mets certainly have more upside with their lineup. 

Who Has The Better Starting Pitching?

Since September 1, the Mets have the best ERA in the National League at 2.36. Through 17 games, the Mets starters have added 14 quality starts. That’s four more than the Atlanta Braves, with the second-most quality starts since September 1.

New York’s rotation doesn’t have big names. But they’ve produced. Luis Severino and Sean Manaea came to the Mets on one-year prove-it deals and are both on pace to finish the season with an ERA lower than four despite pitching 170+ innings.

They’ve been the hottest staff in the MLB over the last few weeks and could add Kodei Senga back in the rotation before the playoffs begin.

However, the Braves have the likely NL Cy Young winner in Chris Sale. Sale has a 2.38 ERA and is on pace to throw at least 30 games this season. He’s also added 18 quality starts and is currently 18-3 on the season.

Lefty Max Fried has been a quality No. 2 pitcher despite his early struggles in April, and Charlie Morton is usually dependable.

After all, in the playoffs, you really only need four starters. Having those three veterans anchoring the group along with a young Spencer Schwellenbach is ideal. The Braves could even have Reynaldo Lopez back in time for the playoffs.

While New York’s starting pitching has been elite in September, the Braves have more playoff experience. If they have Chris Sale and Max Fried pitch four games in a seven-game series, it’ll be hard to beat them.

Who Has The Better Bullpen?

The Atlanta Braves have had the best-performing bullpen in the MLB this season. They’ve left nearly 75% of runners on base this season and have an ERA of just 3.34 as a bullpen this season.

They only trail behind the Miami Marlins in WAR and are way ahead of the Mets, who have a 3.5 WAR as a bullpen.

Ultimately, the Mets have the highest strikeout rate out of all bullpens. But they also lead the National League in walks.

That said, since September 1st, the Mets have been much better. They’re getting hot at the right time.

New York has allowed a 3.40 ERA and an FIP of 2.24 in 45 innings. If 45 innings seem low, it’s because the Mets’ bullpen has thrown the fewest innings this month due to all the quality starts the starting rotation earned this month. This is why quality starts are essential. The bullpen does much better when it is given the rest it needs.

On the other hand, Atlanta has been blowing some late leads over the last couple of weeks.

The Braves haven’t been great at keeping inherited runners away from home plate, leaving just 68.2% of runners on base in September. Yet, Atlanta’s FIP is currently 3.07 in the month, which is still really good.

Overall, the Braves have been the better bullpen this season. But the Mets are surging at the right time. As long as the starters continue to be excellent for New York, the bullpen will be better too.

Which Team Are You Taking: Vibes or Experience?

Vibes matter in sports.

New York has that vibe. The Mets have dominated ever since the McDonald’s Grimace threw the first pitch in June. New York has also adopted Jose Iglesias’ new song, “OMG,” and has signs that they take pictures with every time there’s a home run.

Additionally, owner Steve Cohen had a purple Grimace seat made in the stadium.

The Mets certainly win the vibes category.

New York is red-hot right now. The Mets can do no wrong, and no team wants to play this group. They’re earning timely hits, getting outstanding starting pitching, and enjoying every minute of it.

The Mets are the underdog that has been playing better baseball than pretty much anyone for nearly four full months now. This season, you can make the argument they have been the better team and certainly are the hotter team.

With eight games left to go, the Mets hold a two-game lead over Atlanta and these two teams will meet head-to-head starting on Tuesday. That series could very well decide who makes the playoffs and who does not.

The Mets will carry their vibes with them into Truist Park, but the Braves hold the playoff experience. They have won big games before and will have Sale lined up to pitch in that series.

With that in mind, the playoffs are starting early this year, as this division rival showdown will carry the ultimate weight. Only then will we learn who the more dangerous team is.