Will the Winner of Padres-Dodgers Win the World Series?
The Dodgers-Padres NLDS is certainly a battle between two powerhouse division rivals. Is one of them the clear-cut World Series favorite?
It’s hard to believe that we’re only in the Divisional Series rounds and we already have a matchup with the high-flying pace that the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are providing.
This series has everything. Elite starting pitching on both sides, a couple of lineups with virtually no holes top-to-bottom and two top-10 caliber bullpens.
This is a Dodgers team led by the likes of former MVPs Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman along with star starting pitching such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty.
And then there’s a Padres lineup anchored by All-Star talent that includes the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado to pair with the pitching prowess of Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish.
These teams are loaded, and they might just be the two most loaded rosters left in the postseason.
And whoever comes out on top in this series might just be poised to go all the way and capture October glory.
Contributions from Everyone in Each Lineup
The Stars
When dealing with lineups with the caliber of talent that each of these NL powerhouses possess, it’s easy to get caught up in the stars.
And in the case of this series, it’s entirely justified, as a majority of each team’s stars have been on full display this postseason.
For the Dodgers, Ohtani has already made his postseason presence known, belting a huge three-run shot in just his second-career playoff at-bat in the opening game of the series.
And despite going down with ankle discomfort in Game 2, as he plays through an ankle sprain and bone bruise, Freeman came through in a big way for Los Angeles in their Game 1 victory, going 2-for-5 with a stolen base in his first game in over a week.
All-Star and 2024 MLB Home Run Derby champion Teoscar Hernández also came through in the team’s 7-5 victory on Saturday night, driving home a pair of runs.
In the Padres’ case, their stars have also put their stamp on this year’s rendition of the postseason.
In the opening Wild Card series versus the Atlanta Braves, Tatis went 4-for-6 with a homer, two RBI and two walks. He’s followed that up with a 5-for-8 NLDS with two statement homers to go along with three RBI and a walk.
After his key homer to open Game 1 of the NLDS, Machado has also continued to build on his solid postseason career as a Padre.
Moreover, newfound stars such as potential 2024 NL Rookie of the Year Jackson Merrill and first-time All-Star Jurickson Profar have each come up big for San Diego this October as well.
Merrill has gone 6-for-14 with a homer, a double, a triple, five RBI and two walks in his first four career postseason games.
And after a quieter Wild Card series, Profar has come alive in the NLDS. He’s gone 2-for-7 with an RBI and three walks as he continues to be an on-base merchant for the Friars.
The Supporting Cast
As important as it is to have your stars firing on all cylinders, having support in the lower half of the order is just as important when pushing for a World Series. And both of these teams have received those contributions from the back end of their batting orders so far.
Gavin Lux and Tommy Edman have both been spark plugs in setting the table for the top of the Dodgers batting order. Lux has gone 3-for-7 with an RBI and a run scored while Edman has also gone 3-for-7 with a run scored.
In San Diego’s case, it’s been less about setting the table and more about flat-out dictating the game from the bottom half of their lineup. Kyle Higashioka is a prime example of this with his three home runs in four games this postseason. And David Peralta made his presence known in last night’s action with his two-run blast.
Regular Season Results
While both of these lineups are performing well early here in October, it comes as little surprise after the way they performed in the regular season.
Los Angeles held MLB’s best totals in team wRC+ (118), OPS (.781) and SLG (.446) in 2024, while sitting in the top five in HR (third at 233), RBI (second at 815), batting average (fourth at .258) and OBP (second at .335), according to FanGraphs.
San Diego also sported an excellent offense overall this season. They sat sixth in wRC+ and OPS, while they tied for the league’s best batting average at .263.
Both Rotations Have Top-Notch Top-End Talent
There’s no shortage of top-end talent when it comes to both the Padres’ and the Dodgers’ rotations. They’ve both positioned themselves extremely well in this aspect to make deep October runs.
Despite being plagued by injuries in 2024, the Dodgers still field a starting staff spearheaded by big names.
Yamamoto didn’t look sharp in Game 1, only managing to go three innings, but this is still the same pitcher who in 18 regular season starts posted a 3.00 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a diverse pitch mix that can cause fits to even the best of hitters.
Despite looking a bit off from his regular season form in his first postseason appearance of 2024, Flaherty still managed to go 5.1 innings in his start on Sunday night and managed to keep the Padres’ bats at bay after the first two innings.
The Dodgers’ prized deadline acquisition built on a regular season in which he posted a 3.17 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a .222 AVG against in 28 starts.
And then there’s Walker Buehler who, despite a rougher return from injury in 2024, is still just a few years removed an excellent 2021 campaign in which he posted a sub-2.50 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP, implying the raw talent is certainly there.
He’s looked better than his 5.38 full-season ERA would indicate of late. In three of his last five starts entering October, he went 5.0+ innings allowing five hits or fewer, two earned runs or fewer and two walks or fewer.
And with such a strong ‘pen, which we’ll touch on later, a breakout performer like rookie Landon Knack and his 3.65 ERA in 2024 can be a useful opener should the Dodgers advance to the NLCS and need to rely on a group of four starters in a best-of-seven series.
The Padres have had more opportunity to show off their talented starting staff this postseason with the extra two Wild Card games under their belt.
King, their Game 1 starter in the Wild Card Series and projected Game 3 starter in the NLDS, has been nothing short of remarkable.
He showed no moment is too big for him when he followed up a regular season in which he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and 201 strikeouts by going seven innings of shutout ball with 12 Ks in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against Atlanta last week.
Darvish showed out in his first start of the 2024 postseason as well on Sunday night, when he threw seven innings of one-run ball allowing just three hits.
That start was certainly an impressive encore to yet another strong regular season for the 38-year-old, who posted a 3.31 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a .212 AVG against across 16 starts.
And we can’t talk about ace-caliber pitching in San Diego without talking about Cease, the former Cy Young runner-up.
Despite a rougher showing in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday, Cease put together a great overall opening campaign as Padre in 2024, with a 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He even tossed a no-hitter on July 25.
While Joe Musgrove going down with a season-ending elbow injury is not ideal, veteran Martín Pérez paired with a deep, world-class bullpen should be more than suited to account for any fourth-starter needs this team would require should the Padres encounter a best-of-seven situation in the NLCS or World Series.
Both Bullpens Are Loaded with Firepower
As I mentioned earlier, these two California powerhouses feature top-10 caliber bullpens.
The Dodgers’ relief corps got a whole lot stronger after they brought in Michael Kopech at the deadline. In 24 appearances since he made the move from Chicago, he has posted a 1.13 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP and a .115 AVG against, immediately inserting himself into the closing mix.
He accompanies top-end names like Blake Treinen and his 1.93 ERA this season, Alex Vesia and his 1.76 ERA, Evan Phillips and his 96-mph average heater and former World Series champion closer Daniel Hudson at the back end of the Dodgers ‘pen.
And if we’re talking bullpen depth, the Padres can go toe-to-toe with anyone.
They have two All-Star caliber closing options in Robert Suarez and Tanner Scott, a sub-2.00 ERA merchant in Jason Adam, an elite swing-and-miss arm in Jeremiah Estrada, and two crafty sub-3.00 ERA arms that can enter a game in a variety of situations in Adrián Morejón and Bryan Hoeing.
How the Dodgers and Padres Stand Out Amongst Contenders
While every remaining team has a case to bring home a World Series in 2024, you’d be hard-pressed to find two teams more complete than Los Angeles or San Diego.
Teams like the New York Mets and New York Yankees may have comparable star power and depth within their lineups, but neither can match the overall pitching depth the Dodgers and the Padres have between their rotations and their bullpens.
The Kansas City Royals can arguably match the robust amount of talent the Padres and Dodgers have within their rotations, but the Royals’ bullpen and lineup are not at the same level as those of the two NL West powerhouses.
The Detroit Tigers have a bullpen that’s caused hitters serious problems during their magical run to October, but apart from Tarik Skubal, their rotation falls short of both San Diego and Los Angeles, as does their offense.
And then there are teams that can arguably match both of these juggernauts in multiple areas, but at the end of the day fall short of matching them in all three areas.
The Cleveland Guardians might have the best bullpen in baseball and sport a lineup led by three All-Stars in José Ramírez, Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan. But at the end of the day, their rotation brings forth a ton of uncertainty beyond Tanner Bibee and doesn’t come close to matching the talent the Dodgers and Padres have.
And the Philadelphia Phillies, who have as star-studded a rotation and lineup as any, have a bullpen that matches the name power of the Dodgers and Padres, but their relievers have had some serious trouble so far in the NLDS.
Los Angeles and San Diego are simply the most well-rounded teams remaining in this year’s postseason picture, meaning whichever team comes out on top in this highly contentious series will no doubt be the clear frontrunner to go the distance and claim the 2024 World Series.
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