How the Yankees’ “Creative” Bullpen Should Look in October

As the postseason nears, contenders look to make their final adjustments in the home stretch of the regular season to finalize their October rosters.

And in October every out is amplified considerably, meaning getting the best out of pitchers in every inning on the mound means that much more.

So after New York Yankees closer Clay Holmes blew his league-leading 11th save of the season on Sept. 3, manager Aaron Boone said they needed get more creative with the closing role.

While Boone was adamant, in his post game presser that night, that Holmes plays a huge role in this bullpen, he didn’t shy away from addressing the fact there is depth beyond Holmes that could play a big role down the stretch.

“We have options down there and we’ll consider everything,” Boone said.

So considering the fact that the Yankees do have options outside of Holmes, does it make sense to continue to role with him into the postseason when he clearly has issues closing out games without the pressure October tends to bring?

Let’s dive into how the Yankees should structure the key areas of their postseason bullpen.

Clay Holmes Should Not Be The Yankees Closer

The easy answer for why for Holmes shouldn’t be the closer in the Bronx this postseason is that he’s blown 11 saves.

And while his blown saves are a key reason why he shouldn’t anchor the Yankees’ bullpen, there’s more aspects to criticize about Holmes’ game.

He’s struggled with his fastball this season. Hitters have managed to hit a staggering .336 clip off of it, with a complimenting xBA of .288 against it, according to Baseball Savant.

This has resulted in his Fastball Run Value (-7) to fall in the 12th percentile and overall Pitching Run Value (-1) to fall in the 41st percentile of big league arms.

When your primary pitch offering, which is thrown over 55% of the time, is getting hit at such a high rate, it’s hard for anyone to feel confident in your ability to shut the door in ninth.

Holmes also does not induce high chase rates like his fellow back-end bullpen members. His chase rates fall in the lower half of MLB (42nd percentile) at a rate of 27.7%.

And Holmes is not a pitcher that thrives in deceiving batters, as he is a groundball pitcher who aims to pitch to contact. Holmes ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to groundball rate at 66.5%.

Now getting the ball on the ground can be an effective weapon out of the bullpen, but the ball being put in play leads to a greater variance in performance.

Sometimes late in games, you need to be able to get swing-and-miss outside of the strike zone, and not excelling at that as hurt Holmes in the closer’s role.

If Not Holmes, Then Who?

If Holmes is to be replaced at closer, the ideal way for Boone to switch things is up is to find a someone to address those holes in Holmes’ game.

It’s difficult to find someone that provides all three things Holmes has struggled with in 2024; someone who has more balanced results with every pitches in his arsenal, a higher chase rate to pair with high whiff and strikeout rates, and a better extension point.

The three names that have been entrusted alongside Holmes in the later innings have been Tommy Kahnle, Luke Weaver and Jake Cousins.

Looking at how opponents have attacked Holmes’ fastball, creating an imbalance result-wise in his offerings, here’s how the stuff of his three back-end bullpen mates stack up against opponents in 2024.

And in terms of swing and miss metrics, all three offer above average totals across the board, including chase rates.

Taking all of this into account the best possible option to relace the Holmes for ninth inning duties is Luke Weaver.

The converted starter has been exceptional this season sporting a 3.28 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 74.0 innings of work. Weaver has chase, whiff and K-rates in the 79th percentile or higher and sub .200 averages against on all of his pitches.

The most important discrepancy between him and his other late-inning relief mates, including Holmes, is that he features a three-pitch mix where he throws each different pitch over 20% of the time, which doesn’t give hitters the opportunity to look for a more commonly used pitch to jump all over.

How Does the Rest of the Backend Shape Up?

If Weaver were to take over the closing role, the remainder of the Yankees back-end bullpen should still feature the same set of names.

Even though Holmes has had a rough go of things in the ninth inning, he still has aspects of his game worthy of the late inning work. And maybe the elimination of the pressure that closing situations bring on is just what Holmes needs to amplify his strengths and get back on track.

Holmes causes hitters to whiff and miss barrels at well above average rates. Opposing hitters whiff at a rate of 29.2% (78th percentile) and only barrel up on his pitches at 5.8% clip (82nd percentile).

And Holmes’ slider has been a pleasant contrast to his poor performing fastball. Hitters have only managed to hit .116 and slug .209 against it this season, resulting in a 90th percentile Breaking Run Value.

And we’ve established the success that Kahnle and Cousins have had this season.

Kahnle’s wipe-out changeup is paired with a 1.95 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 37.0 innings pitched.

And in 34.0 innings in 2024, Cousins’ impressive sinker/slider mix has seen him post a 2.65 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

How Can The Yankees Utilize The “Odd Men Out” in Their Rotation?

The Yankees starting rotation in the postseason projects to be lead by reigning AL Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole and lefty Carlos Rodón, who other than a 7.76 ERA in June, has not featured a monthly ERA over 4.15.

Then the final two spots will likely be filled out by a pair of veterans in Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman.

This leaves the two arms in the Yankees starting mix, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt, on the chopping block. But it doesn’t mean either of them should be off the postseason roster.

Clarke Schmidt is set to be activated on Sept. 7 from the 60-day IL, having not pitched since May 26. Before going down with a right lat strain, Schmidt was in the midst of fabulous season. In 60.2 innings across 11 starts Schmidt pitched to a 2.52 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and a .222 average against.

Schmidt could offer a long-relief, starting style insurance policy for pitchers like Cortes and Stroman, who haven’t exactly been lighting the world on fire in 2024 with ERAs above 4.00 for both of them.

With Schmidt fresh off the IL and less removed from relieving than Cortes and Stroman, he makes the most sense take on a swing man role this postseason.

And then there’s Luis Gil, who at one point early in the season was making a strong case for American League Rookie of the Year.

Like Schmidt, Gil has better numbers than both Cortes and Stroman, with a 3.24 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 130.2 innings across 25 starts.

But as young arm that’s already gone through Tommy John surgery while also just returning from a sperate IL stint for a lower back strain, it makes sense for Gil to move to the ‘pen to take advantage of his immense skills, such as 90th percentile average fastball velocity, while also limiting his innings and preserving his health for next season and beyond.

But considering how good Gil has been, he could play more than just a swing man role to eat up innings if games are a blow out.

He could be a “swiss army knife” type of pitcher that on top of a possible swing man role, could also find himself in high leverage late inning situations due to his blistering fastball sitting at an average speed of 96.8 mph and his extremely effective breaking and off speed stuff, with run values ranking in the 92nd and 85th percentiles respectively.

What Would a Full Nine Man Bullpen Look Like?

We’ve established what could be a formidable back four of Weaver closing, with Holmes, Kahnle and Cousins as the primary set up options.

And then we have the two starters, Schmidt and Gil, who could play a huge role in vamping up this bullpen even further.

This leaves three middle relief spots remaining with a few names that could claim them.

The first name that seems like a no brainer is Tim Hill. Hill is currently the best performing lefty in a Yankee bullpen that is certainly not flush with talented southpaws.

Since signing with the Yankees after being DFA’d and subsequently released from the White Sox in June, Hill has been excellent. In 34.2 innings with New York, he’s posted a 2.34 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP.

He also induces groundballs and avoids barrels at 100th percentile rates, making him a prime candidate to appear in situations when a double-play is needed.

The second of the remaining spots should go to one of their key trade deadline acquisitions, Mark Leiter Jr.

Despite the trade not necessarily going to plan in New York at the moment, with Leiter posting a 5.79 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP in 14.0 innings pitched as a Yankee, he still features unbelievable swing and miss capabilities. He ranks in the 95th percentile or above in K-rate (32.6%), chase rate (34.2%) and whiff rate (36.9%).

The last spot is where things get tricky.

If Ian Hamilton finds a way to return from the IL in the final weeks, he would be the best option to round out the middle relief section of this ‘pen. He provides a quick, nearly 96 mph average fastball and very strong 35.1% totals in both chase and whiff rates, along with a fantastic ability to miss barrels, with a clip of just 3.4% through 29.2 innings in 2024.

But given the fact that his return from the 60-day IL was halted in recent days, after being scratched from a rehab outing due to back spasms, the very real possibility of him simply not being ready for the postseason must be taken into account.

In that case, as it stands right now, the final spot should go to Ron Marinaccio, should Hamilton not be ready. In 23.1 innings in 2024, he holds a solid 3.86 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. And his fastball has been quite effective this season generating only a .150 average against with an above average Fastball Run Value of 5.

The Yankees bullpen as whole has been middling in 2024, ranking 23rd in fWAR, 13th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 17th in WHIP and 14th in average against, according to Fangraphs.

So Boone switching things up down the stretch might be exactly what the doctor ordered to try and get this bullpen back on track and have similar potential to the team’s front end starters and high ranking offense ahead of the postseason.