Zack Wheeler Is in a Class of His Own

Chris Sale is almost certainly going to win the 2024 NL Cy Young. There’s a good chance he wins it unanimously. He’s got traditional stats, advanced metrics, and a terrific narrative working in his favor.

Yet, even if Sale receives all 30 first-place votes from the BBWAA voters, that won’t mean it wasn’t a close race.

Among NL pitchers, Zack Wheeler finished second only to Sale in wins, strikeouts, and ERA. He also finished second to Sale in xERA and FanGraphs WAR. Take a look at how closely these two match up in a wide array of meaningful stats:

Sale has the edge in every column except for innings pitched. That’s why he’s such a heavy favorite to take home the Cy Young. It’s hard to come up with any argument against him.

However, Wheeler isn’t far off in any category. He trails Sale in almost every major metric, but not by much. That’s why the competition is so close, even if the voting ultimately won’t be.

And there’s one more thing to consider…

Zack Wheeler Dazzles in NLDS Game 1

Let me be perfectly clear: Postseason performances don’t have any influence on regular season awards. The BBWAA voters submit their Cy Young ballots before the playoffs even begin.

Nonetheless, Wheeler’s outing for the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS was a reminder that he is still the best pitcher in the National League, even if he doesn’t (and might not ever) have the hardware to show for it.

Wheeler was phenomenal against the Mets. He threw seven scoreless innings. He gave up just one hit and struck out nine.

If this start counted toward his regular season numbers, Wheeler would overtake Sale for the NL lead in strikeouts. He would also pass Sale in Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR), Win Probability Added (WPA), and Baseball Savant Pitcher Run Value. His ERA would drop to 2.48, just a tenth of a run behind Sale’s.

All of a sudden, there would be a strong case for Wheeler as the deserving NL Cy Young. And if only one start could make the difference between a unanimous win for Sale and a potential victory for Wheeler instead, that proves just how close this competition truly is.

Wheeler Was Always Pitching for October

Zack Wheeler wasn’t just typical Zack Wheeler against the Mets — he was better.

His four-seam fastball velocity was up by 1.9 mph compared to his regular season average. Indeed, his average four-seam velocity was higher than it was in any other individual outing since the 2023 postseason.

All the more impressive, Wheeler was still throwing heat late in the game with his pitch count well into the triple digits. He threw 111 pitches that day, and his average fastball velocity in the seventh inning was still higher than his average fastball velocity in any other game this season.

Thanks in large part to that extra oomph, Wheeler was a swing-and-miss machine. His 54.5% whiff rate was the best of any single game in his entire career. Not only that, but his 30 swings and misses were the third-most by any single pitcher in a single postseason game in the pitch-tracking era (2008-present).

All this makes me think that Wheeler was intentionally holding back, just a little bit, during the regular season.

It was pretty clear pretty quickly that Wheeler and the Phillies would be playing in October. That meant he had to prepare to make as many as 37, 38, or even 39 starts this year — and the last few were going to be far more important than all the rest.

I wrote about the Phillies’ starting pitchers throwing with noticeably less velocity early in the season. I also wrote about the team’s good reputation for keeping their pitchers healthy.

The Phillies’ coaches, trainers, and, of course, their players, clearly understand how much the postseason matters, even if doesn’t matter when it comes to regular season awards.

All this to say, I can’t help but wonder if Wheeler would have been the deserving 2024 NL Cy Young if he weren’t preserving himself for October. If he were pitching for, say, the Nationals and didn’t have to worry about saving his arm for a deep postseason run, could he have been just a little bit better in all 32 of his regular season starts?

There’s no way to know for sure. It’s all just speculation.

But what we can say for certain is that Wheeler has been ready to give his all for his team in the most important moments. Sale was phenomenal over 29 starts, but he couldn’t give the Braves the start they needed most. He sat out the NL Wild Card Series with back spasms.

The situation makes me think of an old joke. Two students are comparing their test scores. One earned a 99%, while the other got a perfect 100%. The first student says, “Not bad, I only finished one percent behind you.” But the other says, “Not really. You scored 99% because that was the best you could do. I scored 100% because that was the best there was to give me.”

Sale made 29 starts this season because that was the best he could do. Wheeler made 32 starts (and at least one more in the playoffs) because that was all the season had to give him.

Ultimately, the only argument for Wheeler over Sale in the Cy Young race is durability; Wheeler made three more starts and threw 22.1 more innings in the regular season. And the fact that he was available – and better than ever – in October makes me wonder if his focus on durability is precisely why his overall numbers weren’t quite as dominant. If so, it certainly seems like a worthwhile tradeoff.

None of this is me trying to argue that Wheeler deserves the Cy Young. I don’t think he does. It’s a close call, but if I had a ballot, my first-place vote would go to Sale.

Yet, at the same time, I think Zack Wheeler was the best pitcher in the National League this season. It might seem like a pedantic distinction, but Wheeler’s dominant performance in the NLDS should be all the proof you need that it’s a distinction worth making.