Arizona Fall League Notes: Phillies Top Prospect Andrew Painter Returns After Nearly Two Years Off

The first installment of our 2024 Arizona Fall League notes starts off with a bang, as Just Baseball’s No. 2 pitching prospect Andrew Painter made his return to the mound in game action for the first time in nearly 600 days. Painter grabs the headline for obvious reasons, but it was a fun weekend of baseball in the desert with plenty of exciting takeaways.

Andrew Painter’s Return

The Phillies’ top prospect had not made a pitching appearance in a game setting since Spring Training of the 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery. The stat line (2.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K) was far from the priority, as the 21-year-old shook off nearly two years of rust. As it pertains to the sheer stuff, he looked a lot like the guy who took the minor leagues by storm in 2022.

He didn’t throw a fastball below 97 MPH and ran it up to triple digits in his two innings of work. Some of the rust showed in terms of location, leaving several secondary pitches elevated and spraying the fastball a little bit. All in all, Painter threw 29 pitches, 18 for strikes, and averaged 98.3 MPH with his four-seamer. Impressively, seven of his 10 sliders landed for strikes. We will likely see Painter a few more times this AFL season, with the expectation being for him to toss around 20 innings.

Career Day for Josue Briceño

Tigers C/1B prospect Josue Briceño was a breakout candidate entering the season, showing well in limited action in Low-A before a knee issue sidelined him for the majority of the year. The newly-turned 20-year-old posted a 123 wRC+ in his 40 games as a Flying Tiger, but was challenged at points to get the ball in the air consistently, limiting his home run output to just two. He eclipsed that total in a matter of four pitches on Sunday, with the first big swing coming off of Painter.

The first swing was on a 1-0 changeup, perhaps a bit up, but still located on the edge of the bottom away quadrant for Briceño. Yet the 6-foot-4 left-handed hitter was able to pull it 446 feet to right center field. The very next at-bat, Briceño ambushed a Trent Baker first pitch fastball and hit it out to straight away right field. In Briceño’s third at bat, Peyton Pallette hung a first pitch changeup that the Tigers prospect was simply too locked in to not punish him for. 444 feet later, Briceño had not only the first multi-homer game of his professional career, but now the first three-homer game as well.

An interesting wrinkle in the Briceño situation is the defensive side of things. In my preseason report on Briceño, I couldn’t help but speculate that a move to first base would be inevitable as he simply has seemed to physically outgrow the position. When returned from a knee issue that sidelined him more than three months, Briceño only played first base and DH for Low-A Lakeland, and it has been more of the same in the early going of the AFL season.

A move to first may allow for Briceño to really get his legs back under him as a hitter, especially considering how active his lower half is in his swing. The first base and DH reps may just be precautionary until next season, but with the presence of Thayron Liranzo and a relatively serious knee issue sidelining the towering 20-year-old, it’s worth wondering if the catcher experiment may just naturally have a shorter shelf life in the hopes that the bat can climb the ranks quickly.

After all, Briceño boasts plus power potential, an advanced feel for the strike zone, and above average contact rates. His solid 40 Low-A games and red-hot start to the AFL season could mean the breakout is just coming one year later than scheduled.

Zyhir Hope Flashes his Special Upside

Probably the bat I was most excited to see out in Arizona, Hope’s outrageous batted ball data, smooth mechanics, and advanced approach earned him a spot within Just Baseball’s top 50 prospects despite missing a large chunk of the Low-A season.

It’s hard to find a 19-year-old prospect with such explosive athleticism also possess such refined swing mechanics. He is able to generate ridiculous impact with so little effort, making it easier to consistently get his best swing off, exemplified by his average exit velocity of 92 MPH and strong numbers against lefties. Hope is an easy plus runner, and the Dodgers are getting him more reps in center field after playing nearly all of his games in the corners last season. It will be interesting to see if Hope’s additional looks in center field mean more time up the middle in 2025.

Moises Ballesteros Makes Hitting Look Easy

When it comes to the bat, you’re not going to find any reasonable Ballesteros detractors, and I’d assume the Cubs had little doubt that the 20-year-old would do anything other than hit in the AFL after he posted a 127 wRC+ between Double-A and Triple-A. He crushed a home run to the pull side that left the yard at 111 MPH, but he flexed his hitting muscles with his 2-2 swing on a back door slider that he shot through the left side for a two-run single as well.

The big question with Ballesteros is his defense behind the dish, which is the primary focus for him this off-season with the bat knocking on the door of the big leagues and the glove still being questionable. Overall, his receiving has definitely improved. I didn’t see a ton of blocking opportunities, which is a major area of concern in addition to his ability to limit the run game. There’s unfortunately no fallback defensively, as he would be the shortest first baseman in MLB history.

All that said, he will still find his way way inside our next top 100 list because of the tantalizing floor/ceiling combination of the bat. He is hitting the ball as hard as ever, with his only two batted balls north of 110 MPH coming in the young AFL season.

Ethan Salas Off to a Hot Start

In 111 regular season games at High-A, Salas had just four games with multiple extra base hits. Through his first five AFL contests, he has already enjoyed two multi-double performances with three of the doubles going to the opposite field.

Through the 18-year-old’s struggles in High-A, he had the tendency to spin off the ball, resulting in an elevated pull-rate and too many rollovers. When he maintains his direction and uses the whole field, the natural talent Salas possesses really stands out, and in the early going of the Fall League, there have been more flashes of that talent.

Defensively, his catch and throw skills particularly stood out. He threw out 28% of base stealers in 2024, and it was easy to see how between his quickness and arm strength. The blocking needs to continue to come along, as does the bat, but the immense upside the Padres teenage prospect possesses has definitely shined through in the early going.